PTA Inflation Is Difficult To Change Medium Term Downtrend

The near future PTA After changing the previous weakness, it has become a leading star in chemical industry. Since last Wednesday, the Bulls suddenly started to pull up, and the price has already stood at 9300. Did the whole PTA market really turn a corner? Or is the speculative capital overhyped again? The author makes the following analysis.

First, the boots of new capacity have not yet completely landed, and the effect of excess capacity is gradually emerging.

At the beginning of July, two sets of new installations in Yisheng Dalian and Ningbo totaled 1 million 750 thousand tons, one after another driving, and will gradually enter full load state. The 1 million 500 thousand tons new installations of the three lane group are expected to start in August. Prior to Yisheng, Xiang Lu, BP repair device in June will also gradually recover in July. Yisheng is still in the stage of quality debugging at present. The new PTA is only for the parent company to use and add its own stock. So the PTA spot resources brought by the new capacity have not been put into the market, and the real impact wave has not yet formed. But with the cumulative effect of time, domestic PTA production capacity will reach a new peak in August, and inventory will continue to rise. Therefore, it is wrong to think that the bad factor of the huge increase in PTA's new capacity this year has been digested by the market. At present, the futures price of 9300 yuan / ton has already been above the supplier's cost, and the PTA registered warehouse receipt of the Zhengzhou stock exchange has added more than 1000 more. Therefore, it is easy to judge that under the temptation of high profits, more registered warehouse receipts will enter the futures market.

Two, fires cause PX prices to rise, but the impact is limited.

In July 15th, CNOOC Huizhou PX plant was stopped by fire. It is understood that the parking is only a single device, and the fire affected is the reformer (that is, upstream production). raw material Xylene plant is not a problem with the PX device. CNOOC can still drive ahead through the raw materials purchased, so the impact is far lower than the impact of the 2 million tons PX unit shutdown in Japan this year. The device is expected to run again in 1 to 2 months, which is only equivalent to the time needed for a major overhaul (CNOOC, Zhenhai and Jinling Petrochemical have all been overhauled for 45 days).

In addition, as domestic manufacturers were optimistic about the three quarter PX price at the beginning of the year, the large amount of PX was hoarded before the overhaul period, and the main suppliers of Yisheng, Xiang Lu and other large PTA suppliers in 5 and June were at a high level. Therefore, this event will not affect domestic PTA production. The main suppliers of the current inventory are fully capable of meeting their PTA production, and Korean traders also have plenty of long-term floating goods on hand, so the supply of PX will not become a problem, and the price increase is only a short-term speculation in the market.

Three, downstream products and power shortage

In recent years, driven by fluctuations in PTA futures prices and slicing devices, the prices of downstream filament and slicing rose slightly. The downstream textile manufacturing industry of polyester is 7 and August for the off-season, but at present, in order to cope with the power restriction measures and the impact of textile tax rebate, the textile factories have started to rush to work and the rate of high opening rate is frequent. There has been electricity shortage in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. The power restriction measures will gradually affect the demand for polyester in textile enterprises, which will indirectly lead to a decline in PTA consumption in polyester factories. At the same time, there is no room for further improvement in the operation rate of textile mills. Therefore, such a high production and marketing status is difficult to continue. At this stage, the price of downstream products for PTA futures prices is fragile and short-lived.

Four, raw material prices are rising, but PTA Profit margins remain strong.

The recent market speculation on Huizhou's fire theme has raised the spot price of PX, but due to the low ACP price in the early stage, the price of the PX contract is still around 1400 US dollars this month according to the quotation formula, corresponding to the PTA cost of 8200 yuan / ton. Even if the late speculation continues to push the PX price to $1500, the corresponding PTA cost price is 8650 yuan / ton, far lower than the current price of 9300 yuan / ton of PTA1201 contract. In the case of higher capacity in the later stage of releasing and increasing inventory pressure, more and more suppliers will be willing to sell the hedging in this location to lock in the high profit margins. {page_break}

Recently, cotton continues to go down on the outside market. I believe that the PTA surge on Wednesday has nothing to do with this. The cotton bulls always put their hopes on futures related to cotton when they are in a desperate retreat. Varieties On PTA, on Wednesday, with the theme of fire and the rebound in crude oil, it suddenly took the initiative to take the opportunity to bring cotton back to the finishing platform. The same day, PTA pulled it to a daily limit. But cotton and other chemicals grew only slightly. In the next two days, the volume of PTA was huge and continued to rise slightly, but the price platform of cotton was declining, which was close to the low of 21155 on Tuesday. On Friday, cotton continues to limit on the outer market, and the domestic PTA will continue to pour into the situation. The sustainability of the main line of the two main lines of cotton is ultimately doubtful.