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Cotton Prices Continue To Trend Downward Probability Of Greater

2011/7/25 16:45:00 39

Cotton Price Collection And Storage Of Internal And External Cotton

In recent years, due to lack of clear guidelines in the cotton market, and the price is getting closer to 19800 yuan / ton, the market has become more and more frequent.

In March this year, the state announced the provisional purchase and storage price of 19800 yuan / ton.

Cotton price

From the highest point accumulated nearly 40% today, the price is not only a storage price, but also represents the psychological support price of investors.

The closer to this position, the more uncertainties and market concerns, the more the maturity price shows the slowdown in the fall and the interval oscillation.

The reason for maintaining cotton's fundamentals is that the increase of cotton planting area will inevitably lead to new flower production, and the supply side of spot market will not be able to stock up. The textile enterprises will be cautious in trading and keep purchasing prices down, but the overall consumption of the market has not improved.

In addition, there is not much change in the phenomenon of power reduction and production reduction in downstream enterprises.

From the US cotton side, although last week at 100 cents / pound integer points repeated, but the final trend still needs to pay attention to supply and demand situation, the new year, the number of us export orders signed has not improved significantly, cotton prices are still higher than the main importing countries, so the price drop is more likely.

While the fundamentals tend to be empty, the risk of market stealth is growing synchronously.

The tilt degree of the space balance is obviously relieved than before, mainly reflected in the following aspects:

First, the spot market began selling cotton, and the attitude of cotton merchants changed. Some cotton merchants in the early days were reluctant to sell because they had hope for market demand, but most of the cotton merchants were sad to watch the city and began to actively sell cash to revitalize their capital.

From the early reluctant sale to the active sale, it shows that the supply side is close to the end.

Second, the docking of new and old cotton prices, the focus of market attention has been biased towards new cotton.

The new cotton planting area is fixed. The weather conditions in the next two months will determine cotton production.

Third,

Inside and outside cotton

In terms of price difference, the decline rate of foreign cotton is faster than that of domestic cotton. In the past 3 months, the price difference between home and abroad has decreased from the highest value of RMB to nearly 10000 yuan / ton, and now it is less than 3000 yuan / ton, and the reduction is more than 2/3. At this rate, the price difference is not too far from the normal range. Once imported cotton price has the advantage, the increase of import orders will support the price.

Fourth, in terms of demand, buyers are usually buying or buying at the moment, and not buying large quantities is waiting for cotton prices to continue to fall.

In the first half of the year, the cotton textile industry downturn is not only affected by the high cost, but also affected by the macro environment such as policy tightening. With the decline of cotton prices, both the macro situation and the industry environment will become clear and stable, which will promote the demand rebound.

Demand recovery growth is difficult to achieve in a short time, but once it appears, it must be the price of Lido cotton, and it does not exclude the possibility of a substantial increase in procurement volume.

Fifth, the industrial chain, cotton prices this round of sharp rise and fall indirectly led to changes in the industrial structure, some small and medium enterprises' capital chain is fragile, they withdrew from the market with varying degrees of losses, and the withdrawal of small and medium-sized enterprises is conducive to the increase of orders for large and medium-sized enterprises.

The price pmission in the textile industry chain takes 6 months.

Cotton cost

The phenomenon of pmission to the terminal has begun to appear. The recent rise in the stock price of the listed companies in the textile industry is also related to the market's earnings expectations.

The expansion of the profit and market share of the terminal products of large and medium enterprises will increase the demand for raw materials.

Sixth, in terms of alternatives, chemical fiber is the main substitute for cotton. Due to the strong demand for supply and demand, the buyer's enquiry has also been driven.

If the chemical fiber continues to rise, it is bound to have a positive effect on cotton demand.

Judging from the current market, the growth of new flowers is good, resulting in the formation of the market to increase production expectations, the buyer takes the initiative in the market, cotton prices continue to trend downward probability is greater, the rebound will take time and the situation to cooperate.

Early cotton prices fell deeper, futures ahead pricing, investor sentiment change, it is expected that Zheng cotton decline will continue to slow down.

It is suggested that during this period, attention should be paid to the weather, the difference between inside and outside cotton prices, the fluctuation of substitute prices, and the change of buyer attitude in the lower reaches.