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Cotton Trend Analysis In July

2011/7/29 8:51:00 55

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In the first half of 2011, affected by the domestic and foreign economic environment and the supply and demand situation of cotton,

cotton

The price first rose and then fell, and the fluctuation range exceeded 7000 yuan / ton, especially since March.

In the textile enterprises, the damaged raw materials and finished products are not easy to sell, and they dare not take orders. The stock of enterprises is increased, profits are reduced, and the operating rate has decreased. Some cotton enterprises have higher purchasing costs, and cotton is not sold out, they are facing pressure to repay loans, and the operation is difficult to sustain; some cotton farmers who fail to sell in time fail to gain the benefits of price rise.

At present, the market is low and the atmosphere of wait-and-see is strong. All parties in the industry chain are expecting the price to stabilize as soon as possible.

At present, the growth rate of textile industry is expected to slow down in the second half of 2011, cotton production is expected to increase, and prices will have downside risks. But in the new year, there will be a national temporary reserve policy underpinning, and cotton prices are expected to stabilize.

In the first half of 2011, China's cotton price index rose mainly in the first 2 months, and the following 3 months or more, the average price was 27774 yuan / ton, up 72.3% compared to the same period last year.

Textile production continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. The cumulative yarn production in the first half of this year was 13 million 410 thousand tons, an increase of 11.2% over the same period last year, an increase of nearly 6 percentage points year-on-year.

At the same time, the growth rate of textile and clothing exports has declined in recent two months, but the increase in the first few months has been relatively large. In the first half of this year, the total export volume was $111 billion 700 million, an increase of 25.7% over the same period last year, an increase of nearly 4 percentage points from the same period last year.

Although the textile industry's production and exports have maintained growth momentum, the cotton market has always been relatively light, with domestic cotton sales sluggish and the number of imported cotton continuing to decline. The first half of this year imported 1 million 330 thousand tons of cotton, down 14% from the same period last year, and the expected annual import volume is lower than expected.

June, international

market price

China's macroeconomic environment and supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly.

Cotton price

It continued to decline, but the decline slowed down compared with May.

The average monthly price of China's cotton price index (CC Index328) in June was 24468 yuan / ton, down 574 yuan from May, or 2.3%, up 36.7% from the same period last year.

Cotton yarn fell still larger, 32 pure cotton yarn fell to 31000 yuan / ton, the whole month fell 2000 yuan / ton.

The textile industry has encountered great difficulties in its operation, but production has maintained a relatively rapid growth. The National Bureau of statistics statistics showed that in June, the national yarn production was 2 million 610 thousand tons, an increase of 8.2%, an increase of 13.4% over the same period last year.

However, the export growth of textile and clothing has declined. Customs statistics show that in June, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to 22 billion 900 million US dollars, an increase of 12.6% over the same period, an increase of 22.7% over the same period last year, an increase of 11 percentage points over the same period last year.

Market turnover was sluggish, although cotton production was lower than the previous year, due to slow progress in sales, the turnover of national commodity cotton turnover increased year by year.

According to the China Cotton Association, the total turnover of commodity cotton turnover in China is about 925 thousand tons, 161 thousand tons less than in May, an increase of 174 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.

Of these, 641 thousand tons in the mainland were 27 thousand tons less than in May.

The demand for cotton continued to be sluggish, the difference between domestic and foreign prices was still large, and the number of imported cotton fell sharply for three consecutive months, and the average price also declined for the first time since the beginning of this year.

According to customs statistics, in June, 120 thousand tons of cotton imported from China decreased by 17%, down 29% from the same period last year, of which cotton accounted for more than 50%, Australia cotton accounted for nearly 30%, and India cotton was very rare.

It is estimated that the total import volume will be around 2 million 500 thousand tons in the whole year.

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In June, most cotton regions in China were in bud stage, and some cotton areas in Xinjiang entered flowering stage.

According to the China Cotton Association's area verification again, due to a slight increase in the area of Xinjiang, it is estimated that the cotton planting area will be 81 million 220 thousand mu in 2011, compared with that of the previous year, an increase of 5.5% over the previous year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over May.

Since the sowing of cotton, the meteorological conditions in the whole cotton region of China are basically suitable, and the occurrence degree of pests and diseases is generally lighter. The output per unit area will be increased by more than 5% over 2010. Among them, the cotton growth in the Yellow River River Basin and Xinjiang cotton region is generally good, and a good harvest is in sight.

There is no big disaster in the next two months, and the output of cotton in the whole country will be higher than that of last year.