Carrying Forward Weight In Debate: Financial Experts Talk About The Effect Of Monetary Policy In The First Half Of The Year

If we say, in the first half of this year

The central bank has always been in a tight atmosphere of public opinion in this debate, but it has not changed its argument for debate, and has not changed its course for noise and blame, and has not lost its course for fog. It has consistently implemented the prudent monetary policy established by the Party Central Committee and the state Council and adhered to the continuity and stability of the policy and paid more attention to it.

You should remember that when international finance was held in 2008,

In May this year, when the economic growth slowed down, some social experts and some experts issued a "overshoot" voice, asking the monetary authorities to relax their money and not to become more secure.

In June, China's manufacturing industry

In addition, between 5 and June, another kind of voice in society is also very high. "Wenzhou's emergence of small and medium-sized enterprises' closing down", "Dongguan small enterprises reappearing and closing down tide" and "the survival of small businesses is more difficult than that of the financial crisis in 2008" and so on, and a conclusion is drawn that monetary policy is getting tighter and tighter.

In particular, these public opinions have been amplified rapidly through the spread of some media and networks. Therefore, some people have appealed to not overshoot and relax some money.

It can be said that in the first half of the year, especially in the 4, 5 and 6 months, the central bank's monetary policy was carried out in a heated debate and implemented in a tight public opinion atmosphere.

It tests the central bank's wisdom, judgement and dynamic balance in the correct handling of the three relations of ensuring growth, adjusting structure and preventing inflation.

Then, how effective is the implementation of prudent monetary policy after the first half of the economic operation data is released?

How to judge the current economic situation?

In view of the new changes and new situations of the domestic and foreign economic environment, what intensity and rhythm should be grasped in monetary policy?

These problems have aroused great concern from the public. Journalists have interviewed industry experts for this purpose.

Monetary policy has successfully completed the task of macroeconomic regulation and control in the first half of the year.

China's monetary policy is formulated around multiple objectives such as economic growth, price stability, employment and balance of payments. It needs careful co-ordination and trade-offs.

How to balance trade-offs between macroeconomic targets in accordance with the changing economic conditions, and implement the prudent monetary policy determined by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, testing the wisdom and balance art of the central bank's regulation.

"This year's monetary policy has shifted from moderate easing to stability. The time has just passed six months ago. At the same time, it has been managing inflation expectations for half a year, and basically achieved the expected goal."

Wang Yong, Professor of the Zhengzhou people's Bank of China Training Institute and director of the banking reform and Development Research Center, pointed out.

Ba Shu song, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that the main task of this year's macroeconomic policy is to ensure that the economic stimulus policies exit smoothly without affecting economic growth, and rationally absorb the side effects of inflationary pressures caused by the stimulus policy, and to regain the task of structural adjustment temporarily laid down in response to the crisis. In the first half of this year, monetary policy has successfully completed the three tasks.

The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting in July 22nd. When discussing and studying the current economic situation and economic work, it stressed that we must insist on stabilizing the general price level as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control.

Price is related to people's livelihood.

In the first half of this year, domestic CPI was running at a high level, and in June it reached a historical high of 6.4%.

The impact of rising prices of pork and vegetables on the lives of ordinary people is gradually emerging.

Despite strict regulation since last year, there has been no obvious callback in housing prices. Since April, the property market has been rising again.

There is a clear upward trend in both prices and asset prices.

Many interviewed experts believe that under the background of rising inflation pressure, the central bank has calmly analyzed the economic situation and made decisive efforts to manage inflation expectations according to the principle of timing and moderation.

According to the operation and change of macro-economy, we should operate according to the frequency of raising interest rates every two months and raising the reserve requirement ratio once a month.

During the year, the 6 increase in the deposit reserve ratio and the 3 benchmark deposit and loan benchmark interest rate, together with quantitative and price instruments, fully reflected the foresight and flexibility of monetary policy regulation, and reduced the inflation expectations in the market in a timely manner.

Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has not only raised the deposit reserve ratio for the 6 time, increased the interest rate for the 3 time, but also recovered the market liquidity and adjusted the money supply through the issuance of central bank tickets and open market operations, and the monetary factors in the rising prices have been eliminated to a certain extent.

In the first half of this year, China's GDP reached a steady growth rate of 9.6%, and economic growth continued to shift from the rapid growth of the previous policy stimulus to the self growth.

At the same time, there is no comprehensive price increase, and inflation pressure is still in the controllable range.

"The current round of inflation has the effect of excess liquidity in comparison with the inflation before the financial crisis in 2007, but compared with the former, this flood of liquidity is more concentrated on the negative effects of a large amount of credit in the short term," said Guo Tianyong, director of the Bank of China (601988) industry research center of Central University of Finance and Economics.

Therefore, through monetary policy pmission and tightening the liquidity of the banking system to control liquidity in the market, it has become the normal operation of the central bank to implement prudent monetary policy.

Although liquidity tightening will bring pressure on the operation and financial position of some enterprises, it is conducive to stable and sustainable economic growth in the medium to long term, because an important purpose of shrinking liquidity is to control prices and create a better environment and conditions for sustainable economic development.

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We need to observe the effect of monetary policy according to the operation of the real economy.

The divergence of judgement on macroeconomic trend and inflation situation is the reason for the heated debate on the implementation of monetary policy in the market.

Many people in the industry pointed out that the central bank's monetary policy is actually facing a dilemma: on the one hand, the continued decline of PMI shows that the vitality of the economic growth is decreasing, the domestic and international economic situation is complicated, the European debt crisis is not yet smooth, and the prospect of the US debt crisis is unclear, which has triggered the industry's concern about the stagflation of the domestic economy. On the other hand, all indications indicate that inflation pressure is still increasing.

In the process of increasing the deposit reserve rate and raising interest rates, the central bank has been clamping for stagflation and the collapse of small businesses.

In view of this phenomenon, Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of galaxy securities, believes that the effect of monetary policy should be considered according to the actual operation of the economy. If we do not pay attention to the effect and pay attention to the tools used, we will be biased.

Many industry experts point out that the current domestic economic growth rate is more the result of active structural adjustment, especially in the real estate market regulation, energy conservation and emission reduction, and control of "two high and one capital" industries. Although these measures will sacrifice higher economic growth in a short time, the change in the mode of economic development and the optimization and adjustment of the industrial structure are exchanged.

After half a year's structural adjustment, the endogenous driving force of economic growth has been greatly enhanced, which includes a steady monetary policy and a credit leverage function.

"Domestic economic growth is normal, inflation is controllable, and monetary policy is not over tightening."

Zuo Xiaolei believes that at the end of 6 in 2011, the balance of broad money (M2) was 78 trillion and 80 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9% over the same period last year, and RMB loans increased by 4 trillion and 170 billion yuan in the first half of the year.

This scale is the same as last year. According to the rhythm of credit at 3: 3: 2: 2, new loans will continue to exceed 7 trillion yuan per year, which may decrease slightly over the previous two years, but this is also a reasonable return, which is basically in line with expectations.

In addition to the consideration of bank credit input, Zuo Xiaolei suggested that the financial support from the real economy should be viewed from the perspective of the total scale of social financing.

The central bank's initial statistics show that the scale of social financing in the first half of 2011 was 7 trillion and 760 billion yuan, less than 384 billion 700 million yuan over the same period last year.

Among them, RMB loans increased by 4 trillion and 170 billion yuan, an increase of less than 449 billion 700 million yuan compared with the same period last year; foreign currency loans increased by 336 billion 100 million yuan, up by 117 billion 900 million yuan compared with the same period last year; entrusted loans increased by 702 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 382 billion 900 million yuan compared with the same period last year; trust loans increased by 91 billion 300 million yuan, less than 510 billion 200 million yuan year-on-year; bank acceptance bills increased by 1 trillion and 330 billion yuan, less than 44 billion 100 million yuan compared with the same period last year; the net financing of corporate bonds was 658 billion 800 million yuan, up from more than a year ago; and the domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises was RMB yuan, which was more than RMB yuan a year.

Zuo Xiaolei believes that the statistics of total social financing do not include private lending.

At present, private funds exceed trillion, and credit activities are very active. Capital turnover is faster than bank credit.

It is estimated that if the total amount of social financing this year continues to exceed 50% of the current bank credit, debt equity financing and other financing will take up another half of the total pattern, and at least $1 trillion of disintermediation funds are available to the public, the total amount of social financing this year is likely to be unchanged from last year.

"Such a scale of financing, even if compared with the abnormal situation in 2009 and 2010, can not be said to be deflation, and it can fully support the rapid economic growth of our country."

In addition, it is normal to reduce the number of new loans from banks in line with the government's control measures to reduce indirect financing and raise the proportion of direct financing.

In the first half of the year, RMB loans accounted for 53.7% of the scale of social financing, which was 3.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous year, while the proportion of entrusted loans, corporate bonds and stock financing increased.

The proportion of direct financing increased and the proportion of indirect financing decreased, reflecting the gradual optimization of financing structure.

In the process of continuous expansion of stock market, interbank bond market, bill market and insurance market, more and more direct financing tools can be used by enterprises, and diversified financing needs are gradually satisfied.

There are so many murmurs, Zuo Xiaolei points out, because different interest groups try to force the central bank to change its monetary policy.

Some interest groups, such as investors in the property market (who rarely use their own funds, mostly use the bank's credit leverage to make money), hope to ease the money, re blow big asset price bubbles, and give speculators greater opportunities to make money.

As for the financing difficulties of small enterprises, Wang Yong pointed out that this is not the only problem this year. "When Yin Gensong was small, the small businesses also said that financing was difficult. When the money was tight, it was difficult to raise funds. Therefore, financing difficulties could not find out the root cause from the tightness of the money supply. At the moment, a small number of small business failures were attributed to overshooting of monetary policy, which is far fetched and unrealistic."

Because despite the tightening of money this year, prudent monetary policy still maintained the steady development of the economy, the subsequent investment in large projects and the money supply needed for upgrading and upgrading small businesses.

Moreover, the central bank has been strengthening the window guidance, putting the adjustment of credit structure in the first place, protecting the credit investment of strategic emerging industries, low carbon industries, small enterprises and "three rural", and putting pressure on government financing platform, overcapacity industry and real estate industry, and the reasonable financing needs of small enterprises can be satisfied.

However, this year, the operation of small businesses is faced with many difficulties. The cost of labor and raw materials is rising, the profit space squeezed by the industry cycle, and the sluice and power restriction are all factors, which are not reflected in financing difficulties.

The central bank survey and Statistics Department has conducted a thematic investigation on the current situation of credit financing of SMEs in China. Based on the analysis of the national credit statistics, combined with the survey of 5000 enterprises, the operation of some commercial banks has been understood.

The survey showed that as of the end of 5 this year, the balance of loans for SMEs (including renminbi loans and bills discounting) was 19 trillion and 790 billion yuan, an increase of 18.7% over the same period last year, a growth rate of 8.4 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises, 1.6 percentage points higher than that of loans for the same period, and the growth rate and proportion of loans for small and medium enterprises were higher than those before the crisis.

These data indicate that the financing situation of small businesses has been improved.

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While maintaining policy stability, enhance pertinence and flexibility.

Under the trend of steady operation of the real economy, strong growth of main indicators and ample growth momentum, price inflation has become the main contradiction in the current economic operation.

The diversification of monetary policy and the overall regulation of the monetary policy have relative advantages in solving global problems such as inflation.

Guo Tianyong believed that the first half of the year's macroeconomic regulation and control achievements were hard won, because the monetary policy itself had some time lag effect. In the future, the central bank should resist pressure, eliminate noise, maintain continuity and foresight of the policy, and cooperate with various regulatory tools to make the attitude clear and policy stable.

In order to find a balance between managing inflation expectations and maintaining economic growth, it is more difficult to grasp the intensity and rhythm of prudent monetary policy than the moderately loose monetary policy used in the past two years to cope with the international financial crisis.

How to enhance the pertinence and flexibility while maintaining the stability of monetary policy?

Experts interviewed generally indicated that the central bank should strengthen the guidance of the window, insist on helping and controlling, treat differently, and actively guide the rational and balanced supply of money and credit.

We should optimize the credit structure, increase the support for weak links such as small and medium enterprises, agriculture, rural areas, water conservancy construction and affordable housing, adhere to the credit policy to continue to tilt in these areas, vigorously protect and improve people's livelihood, and give full play to the role of credit leverage, accelerate economic restructuring and energy conservation and emission reduction, and create a favorable monetary and credit environment for strategic emerging industries and low-carbon industries.

Reporters in Shenzhen, Dongguan and other places learned that many banks were considering the pformation and interest rate pricing, and this year's lending to SMEs has not risen.

In the first half of the year, the central bank announced that financial institutions' investment statistics show that the proportion of new loans for SMEs increased, rural loans maintained a relatively fast growth, real estate loans continued to decline, and the growth of affordable housing development loans increased rapidly.

Many experts pointed out that besides paying close attention to the central bank's monetary policy, we should promote steady and rapid economic development and maintain the balance of economic development. We should also make an active fiscal policy.

This includes increasing the pfer payments to the weak links, increasing the policy of benefiting agriculture and finance, making use of financial funds to establish guarantee funds, providing loan conditions for small businesses, increasing living subsidies for low-income families, and establishing linkage mechanisms for social assistance and protection standards and rising prices.

In addition, in view of "the first half of the year, all the tools of monetary policy, including quantitative tools and price tools, have formed a combination of boxing, CPI is still getting higher and higher". Wang Yong believes that inflation this year is not as unilateral as it used to be, and the reason is more complex. In fact, it is the result of a combination of factors such as insufficient supply, expected inflation disorder, imbalance of international payments and other factors.

At the same time, the increase in international commodity prices and the liquidity inflow brought by quantitative easing monetary policy in developed countries are also among the reasons.

"With so many reasons stacked together, it is difficult to manage solely on the basis of liquidity from the central bank, and the resultant force between departments needs to be formed."