July Economic Data Released Today &Nbsp, CPI Or Maintain The 6% High Point Of Inflection Point In The Current Year.

According to the National Bureau of statistics data release schedule, July major macro Economics The data will be released today. China new financial network channel comprehensive media reports here show that, due to the fall in prices of agricultural products, CPI may have inflection points in July, which will still maintain a high level of 6% over the same period.

　　 Prices of agricultural products dropped in July CPI or current inflection point

According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce, the prices of edible agricultural products monitored by the Ministry of Commerce in from July 25th to 31st dropped. Among them, the average wholesale prices of the 18 vegetables in major and medium-sized cities in China were 3.1% lower than the previous week, and the increase was 1.6 percentage points. The retail price of domestic small packaged rice increased by 0.2% percentage points, though the increase was 0.2% compared with the previous week.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics announced the 50 major cities of the average price of food decadal change, in late July, pork and vegetable prices have dropped substantially compared with the middle, all 29 kinds of food, more than half of the price fell. According to the Ministry of agriculture's "national agricultural product wholesale market information network" monitoring: in July 29, 2011, wholesale prices of agricultural products fell by 1.80%, while the wholesale price index of vegetable basket decreased by 2.20%.

According to Tang Jianwei, senior macroeconomic analyst at Bank of communications Financial Research Center (micro-blog), according to the data monitored by the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of agriculture, the price of edible agricultural products has narrowed since July, but it has maintained a slight upward trend. At the same time, non food prices remain high, initially judging that the CPI growth in July will probably maintain a high level of about 6.3%.

Northeast Securities issued a report also said that food prices rose more than expected ease up The price of pork has slowed down in the past two weeks. Even if the increase in non food prices has picked up, the possibility of CPI rising in July is smaller than expected. The price of pork is expected to rise by about 0.3%, while the tail factor is down 0.4 percentage points, and CPI is hard to achieve high.

Professor Jun Jun, director of the Department of finance at Zhongshan University, said that in the 6 and July of this year, CPI may be the highest point in the year because of the influence of the "rising factor". From the above data, the current price increase factor has eased, and the inflection point of CPI is expected to be more likely in July.

From the analysis report synthesis, we can see that most agencies believe that this year's inflation pressure will meet in June and July. In the second half of this year, with the decline of pork prices and the weakening of the tail factors, the overall level of inflation will fall.

Inflation control is still the top priority, and interest rate increase is expected to increase in August.

In July 23rd, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to study the current economic situation and economic work, and emphasized again that the second half of the year should insist on stabilizing the general price level as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control. Since the beginning of this year, the central bank's monetary policy has maintained the rhythm of "one month to one raise" and "one month increase in interest rates", which has led the market to predict that interest rates will be imminent in August.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Xingye Bank's capital operation center, said that the possibility of raising interest rates in August is very great. Anti inflation is still the top priority. At present, the central bank has not loosened monetary policy, and the development of the current price situation also means that the task of controlling CPI within 5% of the whole year will be quite arduous.

Xinhua News Agency reported recently that August Increase interest Expected warming is expected to be an important time window around August 10th; the report predicts that the CPI growth rate in July will be 6.3%. Last Wednesday, the people's Daily published an article published by Xia Bin, member of the monetary policy committee of the people's Bank of China, who openly supported China's interest rate on deposits. Analysts point out that this is a hint that the central bank will further raise interest rates on deposits.

Guotai Junan analyst Hu Da said the central bank's new changes in monetary policy wording are noteworthy. In the short term, the CPI growth rate in July is expected to reach 6.3% to 6.5%. In August, the central bank still has a larger driving force to increase interest rates.

In the three quarter, the economy will come down steadily.

The national statistics show that the GDP growth rate in the first half of this year is 9.6%, which is an obvious fall compared with the GDP growth rate of 11.1% in the first half of last year. Since the second half of last year, the growth rate of GDP has experienced a gradual slowdown, a slight fall and a steady trend. In the three quarter of last year, GDP was 9.6% and fourth quarter was 9.8%, 9.7% in the first quarter of this year and 9.5% in the two quarter. Data released by China Federation of logistics and purchasing in August 1st showed that PMI (purchasing managers' index) was 50.7% in July, down 0.2 percentage points from last month, the lowest since March 2009. As a leading indicator of the economy, PMI fell for 4 consecutive months, indicating that the slowdown in economic growth will be an important feature of the next macroeconomic operation.

The forecast of the Bank of communications shows that GDP grew by 9.3% in the three quarter. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of this year, with the reduction of price increases and the tightening of policy tightening, economic growth will start to pick up steadily. It is estimated that in the three quarter, the economic growth rate will be 9.3%, the fourth quarter will be 9.5%, and the annual economic growth should be maintained at around 9.5%.

Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist at Bank of China, said the third quarter. Gross domestic product Up 9.4% over the same period. Although there are downside risks, China's economic problems in the short term are not great. The possibility of "hard landing" is also very small. The three quarter will still maintain a growth rate of more than 9%. Inflation control is still the core of the recent macroeconomic policy.

The Financial Times reported that prices will remain high in the three quarter as a basic judgment, and the continued economic downturn is also a basic expectation of the market. However, for the three quarter of the economic downturn, the market does not have too much concern. GDP growth in the three quarter will remain above 9% year-on-year, which is a common view of most market organizations. Stagflation is not a worry.

Taking all factors into consideration, the market predicts that China's economy will show a steady slowdown in the July and even the three quarter. The slowdown in the economy will also help to narrow the price increase, so it will not appear. Stagflation 。