US Credit Rating Or &Nbsp Down Again; Our Foreign Exchange Reserves Are Shrinking Risk.

International rating agency standards Pool Co announced 5 days local time, the United States AAA long term sovereignty Debt rating was downgraded to AA+, which is the first time that the United States has lost its 3A sovereign credit rating. Experts believe that the debt crisis in the United States is still "fermented" and that the credit rating has been downgraded again. The market is worried about the US economy and China's macroeconomic situation may be negatively affected.

Our foreign exchange reserves have exceeded US $3 trillion and 200 billion, of which about 2/3 are held in US dollar assets, and most of them are US Treasury bonds. The fall in us long term debt rating will make China's foreign exchange reserves face enormous risk of shrinking.

Experts believe that the decline in the US credit rating will reduce the US market. National debt The increase in behavior has led to a decline in US Treasury bond prices. Sun Lijian, a professor of economics at Fudan University, said: "it is hard to find willing buyers in the market if we want to throw out long-term bonds. As a large number of holders of US Treasury bonds, our country will face a lot of problems.

"Our country now faces two choices: first, continue to increase US Treasury bonds to stabilize the US dollar situation and maintain the value of US dollar assets, but this will sink deeper into the US" debt trap "; two, we will remain unchanged and maintain the current size of US debt holdings. The second approach is more suitable for the current situation and more conducive to domestic economic development. Because this decline in the US credit rating will also lead to a fall in international commodity prices, coupled with the depreciation of the US dollar and the purchase of commodities in Renminbi, China's cost push inflation has eased. " Lu Lei, acting Dean of Guangdong University of Finance, said.

It is noteworthy that the domestic economic development of the United States is blocked, which is likely to increase the pressure of external application and increase the pressure of China's economic development. Sun Lijian said: "the United States may ask China to further open its market and continue to exert pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi. To suppress Chinese export enterprises. "

If the overseas market is not performing well for a long time, many private enterprises may choose to withdraw from the real economy and move into the virtual economy, pushing up capital prices and attracting more capital inflows, which will lead to asset bubbles and bring instability to China's macro-economy. Sun Lijian said.

Lu Lei believes that American credit Grade The international investment environment for China will be more optimistic, and more foreign investment will flow to China, which is conducive to the internationalization of RMB.

"For the appreciation of the renminbi, we must take a long-term view and look at it positively. Even the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of the RMB will not help to increase the order, because the global economic downturn, the European sovereign debt crisis and the US debt crisis all indicate the weak global demand in the future. China's exports account for a high proportion of the national economy, while consumption is not enough to stimulate the economy. It is necessary to further adjust the economic structure and expand the domestic consumer market. Especially in the context of high inflation, the national level should focus on improving the purchasing power of domestic residents and paying attention to the development of domestic demand market. Lu Lei said.