The Global Economy Is In Total Recession &Nbsp; China'S Monetary Policy May Be Fine Tuned.

Last Friday, S & P downgraded

Last Sunday, the T A -25 index of Israel's Tel Aviv stock exchange closed down 6% after opening, closing a 6.99% decline.

However, this is just a preview of the global market "black Monday".

In the Asia Pacific market, Hongkong's Hang Seng Index and Tokyo Nikkei 225 index fell 2.17% and 2.18% respectively, and the Korean stock market even suspended trading for a while.

In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen stock index continued to plummet.

At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2526.82 points, down 99.60 points, or 3.79%, while the Shenzhen stock index closed at 11312.63 points, down 389.13 points, or 3.33%, and two cities fell more than 90% shares.

On the 8 day, European stock markets fell sharply, London FTSE 100 index fell 3.39%, Paris C A C 40 index fell 4.68%, and Frankfurt D A X index fell 5.02%.

The US stock market also started to drop sharply. At the time of press release, the Dow Jones index fell 2.77%, the S & P 500 industrial index fell 3.44%, and the NASDAQ index dropped 3.65%.

In addition to the stock market, the commodity market also continued to decline across the board.

On Monday, apart from corn and sugar varieties, the domestic futures market was almost green and colored.

As the global financial market is in a very pessimistic mood, the risk aversion of the market has risen sharply, making gold the most admired life-saving straw.

International gold prices soared sharply in Asian markets on Monday, and spot gold and C O M E X gold futures broke through the $1700 / ounce integer threshold.

On the domestic side, Shanghai gold futures rose more than 3% on Monday, and reported a record high of 354.47 yuan.

"The biggest immediate risk facing commodities is not the actual downgrade, but the further increase in the uncertainty of the global economy and policy risks. In the face of global confidence, the liquidity premium may rise. In the short term, the real borrowing cost of the United States may increase, and a stronger US dollar may have a negative impact on commodity prices.

"W alter de W et, head of the standard banking commodity trading strategy," said Wei Wende.

To cope with panic in the global market, seven countries

However, for G 7, economists who interviewed by the economic reference daily generally agreed that the effect was limited.

Li Xunlei, chief macroeconomic economist of Guotai Junan, told the economic reference daily that many economies have introduced measures to prevent further deterioration of the economy due to the tragic decline of the market.

The S & P downgrade has given the market a strong signal of economic recession, but it is not enough to cause the economic crisis, so the measures adopted by various economies are relatively mild.

Next, various economies will introduce corresponding countermeasures, and the market panic will be alleviated to a certain extent, but the fundamental problems will continue.

"Intervention" can not change the trend of slow economic decline in Europe and the United States.

"Li Xunlei said that after President Obama took office, he carried out the reform of the health care system, expanded the financial expenditure, but did not achieve effective Taxation on the rich class, and the balance sheet of the government deteriorated. This problem will continue to accumulate.

"Up to now, neither the United States nor Europe has come up with effective ways to contain the economic recession.

This slow economic recession is bound to deteriorate further, and eventually the whole developed economy will go all the way to recession.

"Li Xunlei said that under such circumstances, the emerging economies, including China, are also very hard to be independent.

"I have reservations about this (G 7 intervention effect).

Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic economist of Shenyin and Wanguo, also told the economic reference daily that as the intervention force of G 7 is bigger and the time is faster than the market expectation, it will play a certain role in stabilizing the short-term panic in the global market, but its ultimate impact will still depend on the performance of the European and American economies.

"Our government may take similar measures.

"Li Xunlei believes that under the premise of macro Prudential Management, monetary policy may be fine-tuning to a certain extent.

He analyzed that the impact of the downgrade on China is not too big.

On the one hand, this will affect China's exports, and on the other hand, it will affect China's foreign exchange reserves.

Domestic investment enthusiasm will be further reduced, which means inflation pressure will be reduced, and monetary policy intensity may moderate moderately.

Li Huiyong also said that China's economy is now facing internal and external troubles. If the world economic growth is lower than originally expected, and the domestic economic growth rate will drop faster than expected, the policy will advance in advance.