Deputy Director Of The NDRC: The US Debt Crisis Will Affect China'S External Purchasing Power.

As the US debt crisis intensifies and triggers global economic turmoil, the "summer Davos forum", the most influential economic platform in the world, will also be opened in September in Dalian, China's beautiful coastal city.

What impact will the US debt crisis have on the Chinese economy? How should China cope with the new round of shocks in the critical period of pformation and upgrading? How will the summer Davos forum take the pulse of China and the future of the world economy? Zhang Xiao Qiang, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, accepted an interview with reporters on the 11 hotspots.

European debt has not yet gone.

Q: as the European debt crisis continues to spread, will the US debt crisis stir up trouble? Will the global economy have a "two bottom"? How will the current complex international economic situation affect China's economy?

A: the United States hopes to make economic recovery with a loose monetary policy, which will surely impact the Chinese economy.

In fact, when the second round of monetary easing was implemented in the United States, the Chinese government has repeatedly expressed concern that the United States, as the major currency issuer, will use a large amount of monetary instruments to exacerbate global inflation and allow other economies, including China, to buy part of the recovery of the United States.

In particular, China's current foreign exchange reserves have reached about US $3 trillion and 200 billion. In this case, if the United States continues to implement the loose monetary policy, it will certainly have a certain impact on the global purchasing power of China's foreign reserves.

At the same time, European sovereignty.

Of course, the weak recovery in the US, Europe and Japan will bring about two impacts on China's inflation.

In the short term, the sluggish economy of the developed economies has led to a decline in global commodity prices, which may slow down inflationary pressures on the Chinese economy. In the medium term, as commodity prices are denominated in US dollars, the depreciation of the US dollar will increase commodity prices and increase China's import inflationary pressure.

According to our analysis, protectionist ideas in some developed countries may be on the rise. Now the Doha round has reached a deadlock and will have an adverse impact on the global economy.

Although it is not yet possible to judge the global economy's "two bottom finding", there are two things to be sure: first, the debt crisis is not the same as in 2008, because the leeway of fiscal policy in many countries has been very small, which will bring great challenges to the economic policies of the United States and Europe, which may result in the low growth of the global economy this year. Two, there are many uncertain factors and the global economy is very fragile.

Transformation and upgrading to expand domestic demand

Q: how can China cope with the new wave of shock in the critical period of pformation and upgrading in the context of the sinking of the debt crisis in the US and Europe and the heavy blow after the Japanese earthquake?

Answer: the key is to implement the tasks that have been put forward in the "12th Five-Year plan" plan, to put the pformation of economic development mode into practice, to achieve the strategic adjustment of economic structure, to rely more on scientific and technological progress and management innovation to support development, to build the two oriented society as an important focus for sustainable development, and to deepen reform and opening up as a powerful driving force for changing the way of development. There are still a lot of work to be done in these areas.

It should be noted that in recent years, Chinese enterprises and governments have made great efforts in technological innovation, vigorously fostering and developing strategic emerging industries, and achieved some results.

In addition, China has a domestic market of 1 billion 300 million people, and the work of expanding domestic demand is also advancing.

The income and employment growth of urban and rural residents in the first half of this year has been growing well, creating favorable conditions for expanding domestic demand.

Of course, there is still much work to be done in the reform of the medical and health system and the improvement of the social security system, which will play a positive role in the sustainable development of the economy.

Judging from this year's whole year, the expected economic growth target at the beginning of the year is 8%, and the GDP growth in the first half of this year is 9.6%. The overall judgment is to push forward the expected goal of macroeconomic regulation and control, which shows that China pays more attention to the quality and efficiency of the macro-economy.

At present, the economic speed has been reduced, but it is generally healthy. There is no need to worry that China's economic growth will drop sharply and there will be a "hard landing".

Pressure increase means less.

Q: in the current complex and changing global economic situation, what will be the new year of the 2011 Annual Meeting of the world economic forum 2011 (Dalian summer Forum), which will be held in Davos, China in September?

A: as I mentioned earlier, the continued development of the European debt and the US debt crisis has had a great impact on the world economy. In recent days, global stock markets have had a big concussion.

The emergence of these problems stems from the fact that all countries in the world have implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy to cope with the international financial crisis in 2008. After years of accumulation, the fiscal policies of these countries have reached the limit, and now the deficit must be reduced. This has brought great challenges to the current world economic development.

In the past, fiscal policy and monetary policy were used together in two ways, but now the deficit should be reduced. This means employment is decreasing and demand is decreasing. Many countries in the United States and Europe are now facing high unemployment rate.

At the same time, inflation has also risen, and inflation pressures in emerging economies are also great.

Will the world economy "bottom up" two times? In the new complex situation, how can the international community work together to strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination and take effective measures to tackle global concerns?

Therefore, the world economic forum, an unofficial and most influential international economic platform, will surely discuss these hot spots, and experience shows that the judgment of the world economic forum is often very forward-looking.

This year is the fifth year when the Davos forum has entered China. The theme of this year's forum is "the new leader", which is highly consistent with the experience of China and the world's economic development.

In particular, this year China issued the "12th Five-Year plan" outline, emphasizing that China's economic scale is expanding rapidly while accelerating the pformation of the mode of economic development and realizing the strategic adjustment of the economic structure. Technological innovation and management innovation are the important support to achieve this goal, which highlights the connotation of the "new leader", that is, we can no longer walk the old road of developed countries, and we must go through a new road with Chinese characteristics through innovation.