Who Dares To Copy The Bottom? Buffett Bought &Nbsp; Li Jiacheng Bought 100 Million Shares.

Opportunities are falling out!

In the peripheral market, Buffett, the stock god, once again launched a "bottom up" horn since 2008, aiming directly at the financial stocks at the center of the vortex.

Li Jiacheng, the richest Chinese, has already entered the market. The admission of social security funds, known as the stock vane, seems to indicate that the A share market also has investment value.

Buffett's brilliant record will undoubtedly make investors eager.

But because of worries about the global economy, their search action has not attracted the attention of the institutions.

In most domestic institutions, the market outlook is still not optimistic.

From the history of investment in Buffett and China's social security fund, the fact that the stock market immediately bottomed out after entering the market is not, but the probability is not high.

Join hands

Buffett appealed for a copy of the social security system

"When others are greedy, I fear, I am greedy when others fear." Warren Buffett, the stock god, is using his actual action to fulfill his investment idea. When investors in the global stock market fled, Buffett thought that investment opportunities had arrived.

Last week, Buffett's Berkshire company took the initiative to issue a takeover offer to reinsurance company the Atlantic holdings at below book prices, and negotiations between the two sides are still ongoing.

Buffett said in August 11th that the global market crash had not embarrassed him. He had been buying stocks. "The lower the stock price, the more I will buy, and that is what we do."

It is not just Buffett who takes advantage of the stock market crash. With the valuation level of the S & P 500 falling to 25% lower than the 50 year average, executives of the constituent stock companies buy their own shares to a new high since 2009.

According to Bloomberg reports, between August 3rd and August 9th, 66 insiders from 50 s & P 500 constituent companies bought their own shares, and the proportion of insiders buying and selling companies rose to 7 to 2.

The most widely known is Morgan Stanley chief executive and two other managers who bought 175 thousand shares, and the stock price has fallen to its lowest level since March 2009.

On the other side of the ocean, the Chinese are the richest.

The capital investors shouted at the bottom of the box, and the "A" national team has quietly entered.

Amid the panic of the market, the news of social security funds entering the market spread like wildfire.

In August 9th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to the lowest 2437.68 points in this round, but on the same day at around 10, real estate and banks simultaneously exerted force, steel, nonferrous metals, coal and oil and other weight plates stopped, and blue chips accelerated the market oscillation and picked up. Finally, the Shanghai stock index closed on a flat plate.

In the global slump, A shares staged a magical reversal. The news of social security funds entering the market began to spread in the market.

Since then, authorities close to the social security fund have confirmed that the social security fund has indeed been in the background, and the total amount of funds is estimated to be at least ten billion.

In fact, it is not just social security funds but also insurance funds that move backward.

It is understood that many insurance companies and insurance Asset Management Co began to reduce their positions in early August, and then began to add more positions in August 5th.

brilliant

Copy the bottom or trigger herding effect.

Buffett's bottom call manifesto sparked discussions at the bottom of the market, and countless investors chose to believe Buffett. After all, he had successfully caught a financial crisis.

From the specific operation, Buffett is not good at accurate copy, and even often belongs to a buy that is locked up a group, but these stocks have made Buffett make a lot of money after that.

In October 2008, 1 months after Lehman bank went bankrupt, Buffett announced that Berkshire Hathaway was buying $3 billion worth of general electric stock.

At the same time, he also wrote that although the US economy is extremely bad, he is buying US stocks and looking forward to a long-term rise in the stock market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 46% in the next 5 months, but in the past two years since March 2009, the Dow has completed a super bull market with a top 125% gain.

Now, it seems that Buffett has played the most beautiful battle in this round of crisis, undoubtedly investing in Goldman Sachs.

At the height of the financial crisis, Berkshire announced that it would invest at least 5 billion dollars to buy Goldman's preferred stock with a dividend of 10%. In addition, Goldman's warrant was exercised at a price of 115 dollars per share, that is to say, by 2013, Buffett could buy 115 dollars of Goldman Sachs 5 billion dollars at any time.

In the past 52 weeks, Goldman Sachs's stock price has reached a maximum of $175.34, which has risen by more than 2.5 times compared to a record low of nearly $50 in November 2008.

Compared with Buffett, the social insurance fund has a government background, and its role in the A share's "vane" is even more significant.

According to historical data, social security funds often succeed in the conversion of bull and bear market in the A share market, and the most magical deduction is the 2008 crash.

In 2007, the market rose from the 2728 point of the beginning of the year to the highest 6124 points in the three quarter, the highest increase of over 120%, while the social security fund withdrew sharply in the four quarter.

It turned out that social security funds did succeed in escaping from the top. In 2008, the Shanghai stock index fell more than 70%. In the same period, the social security fund also suffered the first investment losses in 8 years, but because of its sharp reduction in the stock market in the early years, the annual floating loss was only 6.79%, which was stronger than most of the non bond funds in the market.

At the same time, at the end of the two quarter of the same year, the social security fund had begun to build up stocks gradually, and it also laid the foreshadowing for its investment in 2009.

In the industry view, whether Buffett or social security funds have the experience of escaping from the top or reading the bottom in advance, this also leads to the fact that when the market direction is not clear, institutional investors have to rely more on their "foresight" behavior to invest so that the "positive indicator" can be further strengthened.

Institutional view

Most are not optimistic about the market outlook.

Chinese and foreign crocodile hunters, whether the global stock market has already seen a turning point?

Judging from the investment history of Buffett or social security, the situation of stock market immediately after entering the market is not, but the probability is not high.

From the institutional point of view, most of them are not optimistic about the market outlook.

Worries about the global economy remain the main reason for shaking the market's confidence.

At present, the market generally believes that the main problem of the current global stock market crash is the credit crisis, which leaves investors with no confidence in the market.

If market expectations are not reversed, the global stock market crash will not end.

The New York Times wrote yesterday that although investors have gradually stepped out of the shadow of the US rating event, attention has begun to shift to the next economic trend, but the stock market oscillation will continue in the next one or two weeks.

Because from the current major economies, whether the United States or Europe and Japan, the weak economic situation is very obvious, coupled with the United States and the EU's economic policy has not yet embarked on the revitalization of the track, when the weak economic situation to change, there is no dawn.

Domestic brokerages are also not optimistic about global stock markets.

CICC said that the US consumer confidence index was lower than the last financial crisis. France's GDP growth was at a standstill, Greece's annual GPD fell 7%, the euro area Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index turned negative, and China's economic outlook was not optimistic, indicating "more economic pain in the future".

Even against the European short selling ban that has stabilized the recent market, the market's opposition is growing.

CICC said that the government played the role of God, but it would only produce a brief rebound.

When the financial tsunami broke out in 2008, US, British and Russian stocks were banned from short selling, and central banks injected liquidity into the market.

However, after several intermittent bounce, the global market plunged again.

History tends to repeat, "speculators who bounce back will soon be shaken, and investors should wait for a better entry point."

In the context of the global stock market trend is still unclear, "lone ranger" A shares have come out of the new atmosphere, when the monetary policy entered the observation period, the market is not too optimistic.

Analysts believe that the external market economic data is not optimistic, the domestic economic slowdown and macro policy can not relax immediately, are the market's concerns.

The future investment will be faced with dual constraints such as "low growth" and "high inflation". It is hard to expect that there will be a big market coming. The biggest possibility for A shares is to enter a long-term oscillation period.