Three, The Agency Gave The Global Stock Market A "Laxative" &Nbsp; Bank Shares Were Abandoned.

The global stock market was once again irrigated with "laxatives".

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both lowered the global economy.

Industry experts said that the latest US data is very pessimistic, coupled with the European and American debt problems pending, and even the five week A stock market's internal and external environment is not good at the near future, but also faces the real "time bomb" of "raising interest rates".

Market misery

Big mogul, Goldman Sachs and the S & P three giants about the decline in global economic growth has deepened the pessimism of the market, coupled with the Federal Reserve and U.S. regulators to strengthen the supervision of European banks and the US Department, the global stock market is like taking laxatives, and then plunged again, and bank shares were abandoned.

US stock market: worrying data overnight

Due to sharp reduction in orders and layoffs in factories, the 18 Philadelphia fed index fell sharply from 3.2 in July to -30.7 on August, the largest decline in two years.

The number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits last week also reached 408 thousand, exceeding market expectations.

The risk of stagflation in the US economy is also increasing. The US Labor Statistics Bureau announced on the 18 day that the US consumer price index rose by 3.6% in the year ended July, of which the core CPI data increased by 1.8%, the largest increase in two years.

On the 18 day, the Dow Jones index fell 3.68%, lost 11000 points, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 5.22% on the 18 day.

On Friday, Deutsche Bank estimated that China's economic growth rate in the next few quarters is likely to drop to around 7%, making investors more worried about the global economic growth prospects and the risks of European banking system. The US stock market continued to slide, and the Dow fell more than 100 points soon after the opening.

European stock market opened yesterday

The main European stock markets were all on the low side for 18 days, of which the French Paris CAC40 index and the German Frankfurt DAX index fell more than 6%.

At the close, Italy Milan MIB index fell the largest, reaching 6.15%.

Frankfurt DAX index fell 5.82%, London index fell 4.49%.

European stock markets continued to fall on Friday, and the banking sector suffered heavy selling pressure again.

In the 13 minutes after opening, the three major European stock indexes declined significantly: the financial times 100 index fell 1.40%, and CAC 40 fell 2.14%.

Asia Pacific Stock Market: South Korea fell 6% A shares for five weeks

The Asian Pacific stock market is also hard to escape. The stock market plunged yesterday, and the Korean stock market plummeted 6.22%, the biggest decline since the end of 2008.

Australian stock market, Nikkei 225 index, Hongkong Hang Seng Index and so on have all dropped.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained stable after a sharp opening yesterday. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2534.36 points, or 0.98%.

A shares have fallen for five weeks in a row.

Commodity market: periphery

The international futures market reappeared sharply, of which international oil prices fell the top. The New York commercial Futures Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures in September fell 5.9%, closing at 82.38 U.S. dollars / barrel. In yesterday's electronic disk, the contract continued to decline, once below 80 U.S. dollars / barrel mark.

Brent crude oil futures also fell $3.55 Thursday to $107.05 a barrel, or 2.8%.

The RJ/CRB index fell 2.33%, the largest single day decline since August 4th.

Yesterday, the domestic futures market showed a rather "calm" trend, and all kinds of commodities were going up and down. There was a sharp rally in the late market. The number of the last few varieties dropped by more than 1%, and the Wenhua commodity index fell by only 0.69%.

"The domestic futures market is relatively optimistic. On the one hand, the domestic economic situation is better than that of the European and American markets. On the other hand, investors expect that tightening policies such as raising interest rates and raising reserve requirements may withdraw."

Tao Jinfeng, general manager of Haitong futures investment consulting department, said, "but in general, the market is still in a weak position. If the interest rate rises this weekend, the performance of the domestic market may be difficult to sustain."

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A shares are judged

Weekend does not raise interest rate next week or rebound.

Interest rate expectations have also become a factor affecting the psychology of the A share market in recent days. On Tuesday, the reference rate of return for the 1 year central bank as an interest rate vane unexpectedly increased by 8.58 basis points.

The overnight interest rate of banks also rose by 44.33 basis points, which again ignited the market rate hike expectations.

Although management is trying to push the market rebound in other ways, for example, it is known as the market vane, the social security fund billions of capital re enter the market, such as the Chinese version of the "401K" plan, and actively promote the investment channels for expanding the pension. But the social security funds can only be a cup of water truck salary, 401K and so on can only have a significant impact on the future. In the short term, there is no real gold and silver entering the market.

The industry believes that once the weekend does not raise interest rates, the possibility of a rebound next week is very great.

Will the US push QE3 to rescue the market?

Debt problems or forced us QE3.

Global stock markets have never escaped the curse of the European debt crisis and the weakness of the US economy.

Therefore, the S & P economists predict that in order to pacify the market panic, the Fed will launch a new round of quantitative easing policy later this year to promote economic recovery.

Analysts also speculated that Bernanke might have issued the first hint of more loose monetary policy at the annual meeting of the Jackson and Holzer central bank on the 26 th of this month.

Li Daokui, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, said that without a loose monetary policy, the US economy would be very difficult.

If the capital market continues to be unstable for the next one or two weeks, QE3 will be launched.

However, Ding Anhua, chief economist of China Merchants Securities, believes that the Federal Reserve has declared that the federal rate will remain low in the next two years. "By maintaining low interest rates and formulating a timetable, it should be said that the possibility of QE3 launch is smaller."

Countermeasures

Delors and Soros

Appeal for the issuance of Euro bonds

Jacques Delors, the former chairman of the European Commission and George Soros, the famous investor of the United States, called for the issuance of eurozone common bonds (Euro bonds) on 18 th. In addition, in the long run, European economic governance should be strengthened, and market speculation should be dealt with in a way of solidarity and cooperation.

Delors said that the leaders of France and Germany met in Paris on the 16 th of this month did not come up with substantive measures to solve the problem.

Germany is still reluctant to share some of the debt of other members of the euro zone.

In reality, the pfer of sovereignty is difficult to achieve, so European countries can only strengthen cooperation to deal with the crisis.

Delors and Soros believe that the issuance of Euro bonds can decompose the huge financing risks of European countries due to the debt crisis in the short term and relieve the enormous pressure exerted by the market.

The details of Euro bonds can be discussed at the moment.

Soros said Euro bonds are the ultimate solution to the European debt crisis.

He believed that euro bonds should be issued, but before that, the European Union finance ministers Council should allow the European Central Bank to provide funds so that members of the eurozone can finance at reasonable interest rates.

Soros believes that the euro zone can set up an exit mechanism, such as Greece and Portugal, such a small country out of the euro zone, the euro can continue to exist.

(Xinhua)

The situation is worse than expected.

According to the latest analysis report released by the major organizations, the stock market is very entangled in the second half of the year, so the stock market is extremely tangled. The market is likely to have a concussion below 3000. The practice of long term holding is not appropriate, and investors can operate in the band.

First of all, the macro environment may not be as bad as imagined.

Societe Generale Bank chief economist Lu commissar bluntly said that economic data shattered the market's "hard landing" of the domestic economy.

From the perspective of capital, the central bank's open market in the third week of July achieved a net investment of 19 billion yuan, and the 91 day repo operation was suspended again.

Capital side is tightening again. The three quarter monetary policy will adopt a pendulum style fine tuning.

Another big hang in the market is the opening of the international board.

However, the scale of the enterprise launched by the international board is close to the current A share, and the issue of PE will not be less than 10 times. This will support the weight share of the A share market, and will play a role in enhancing the core of the A share.

From the perspective of price earnings ratio, the A share price earnings ratio is hovering around 20 times, and the dynamic P / E ratio of bank shares is less than 10 times, which is at a low level in recent years, and the stock market crash is almost impossible.