The Tariff Reduction Scheme Is Blocked.

After a brief pullback, July

So far, the trade surplus reached US $76 billion 210 million in the first 7 months. The hope of surpassing this year's 100 billion surplus has basically failed.

The continued high trade surplus is restricting monetary policy.

"Narrowing the trade surplus and reducing foreign exchange reserves are obviously the most robust trade policies under the current economic situation.

Narrowing the trade surplus not only can better cope with the global debt crisis, but also can effectively accelerate the pace of China's industrial structure.

Bai Pengming, a macroeconomic researcher at CIC, analyzed the China Times reporter.

Therefore, the convening of the national enlarged Import working conference on tax reduction and other substantive promotion of import expansion rules has attracted much attention.

It is reported that in order to convene the conference, the Ministry of Commerce has carried out intensive research on the southeast coastal provinces at the beginning of the year. The conference was originally scheduled for June.

According to sources, our reporter has revealed that this year's first meeting will be expanded.

But now the meeting has been postponed.

The source said, "the main reason is that the tax cuts are too big."

At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce began to try another idea of "expanding imports".

Close research core researchers told reporters that the "promotion measures" that have been emphasized before are controversial. The current trade surplus is mainly caused by processing trade, while there is a large deficit in general trade, but the current "promotion" actually promotes general trade imports.

Therefore, some people think that how to reduce the proportion of processing trade and promote trade balance is the better way to solve the trade surplus.

Expanding import conference dystocia

With the surpluses of trade surmounting in July, the "reduction of surplus" has again become the top priority of the Ministry of Commerce in the second half of the year.

But this year, the "reduction of surplus" is obviously different from the previous years. It is a new path to promote the balanced development of China's foreign trade by the end of last year, by the end of last year, by Chen Deming.

For how to expand imports,

Since July 1st this year, the state has lowered import tariffs on 33 kinds of energy, raw materials and other commodities.

This is another large-scale tax reduction measure on the basis of the low import temporary tariff imposed by the state on the first 600 years of this year.

But the effect seems unsatisfactory.

In the first 7 months of this year, the trade surplus was close to US $80 billion, and the trade surplus in July was a 30 month high.

As the trade surplus surged, the National Conference on import expansion, which was scheduled to be held in June, has been postponed repeatedly, giving people more and more conjecture about the adjustment of import tax and consumption tax.

"The adjustment of import tax this year is not easy now, and every step will be very difficult."

The above sources told reporters.

Obviously, this is different from the original plan of the Ministry of Commerce.

According to the survey results of the first half year, the Ministry of Commerce originally prepared a tax reduction catalogue covering hundreds of imported commodities, and was prepared to discuss the adoption at the enlarged Import Conference.

Perhaps the resistance was felt, so the meeting has not been held yet.

Ideas change

Behind the delay of the enlarged Import Conference is the quietly changing thinking.

According to the expanded import policy announced by the Ministry of Commerce, the focus of policy has been focused on tax adjustment and import trade facilitation. The latter has implemented a series of measures, while the former needs multi department cooperation.

However, our reporter has learned that there are differences within the Ministry of Commerce regarding the measures to expand imports.

Some people believe that the current trade surplus is mainly caused by processing trade, while there is a large deficit in general trade, but the current "promotion port" actually promotes general trade imports.

In fact, the contribution of general trade and processing trade to China's trade surplus is quite different.

The trade mode of processing trade determines that the processing trade must be surplus, while the products imported from processing trade are totally used for producing export commodities.

The data show that in 2009, China's trade surplus accounted for about 84% of the current account surplus, of which the surplus of processing trade was 135% of the total trade surplus, while the general trade was a deficit.

In 2010, China's total trade surplus was US $183 billion, of which processing trade surplus exceeded US $300 billion, and the general trade deficit exceeded US $40 billion.

"Therefore, reducing the proportion of processing trade can really promote trade balance."

The researchers said.

In view of this, Yan Min, a researcher at the national information center foreign trade, believes that when expanding imports, we should gradually reduce all kinds of hidden obstacles to the import of domestic enterprises, and we should not adopt measures such as directly providing financial subsidies to imported products.

Zhao Yumin, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, also told reporters that the rebalancing of the economy will be a long-term proposition. If the external demand may shrink again, it is inappropriate to take measures such as reducing export rebate rate and reducing export pressure.

Reducing surplus is a hard task.

The weakness of the international market has brought uncertainty to the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year.

Zhou Shijian, senior researcher of the Sino US relations research center of Tsinghua University, told reporters that the current trend of surplus development is not optimistic. In the first half of the year, a surplus of nearly US $45 billion has been achieved. It is not easy to control the surplus for 100 billion dollars a year.

The 7-10 month is the traditional peak season for China's exports. According to the rule of previous years, the surplus in the second half of this year will be larger than that in the first half.

The macroeconomic policy report released by the National Information Center shows that China's foreign trade growth will steadily decrease in the second half of this year, with a projected trade surplus of about US $157 billion.

In addition, the continued trade surplus has also constrained monetary policy.

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, said that in July, the foreign trade surplus exceeded US $30 billion. The current foreign exchange settlement system resulted in a continuous increase in foreign exchange. However, in July, the deposit reserve ratio had not been raised, and the open market had been put in again, so liquidity was abundant again in July.

Therefore, it is imperative to narrow the trade surplus and reduce foreign exchange reserves.

Faced with the risk of shrinking foreign exchange assets, the impact of export trade and the rising inflationary pressure of imports, China needs to consider carefully and respond to it.

Shao Bingyan, an investment analyst at Luojia, believes that the continued influx of external capital will have a negative impact on monetary policy. In order to avoid or reduce the pressure on the central bank's monetary policy to be abducted by external capital, accelerating the appreciation of the renminbi will remain the best choice for the central bank under the passive pattern.

He expects that the renminbi will continue to appreciate faster against the US dollar in the coming months, rising to 6.25-6.13 at the end of the year.