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Too Weak For A Long Time, Zheng Cotton Rebounded Weak.

2011/8/26 8:28:00 50

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In recent years, the international financial market has been greatly volatile. Zheng cotton is less volatile than other varieties. It is mainly closed to the lower space after closing to the reserve price. However, the domestic cotton market has been too weak for a long time, resulting in a relative lack of momentum for the rebound.

The bottom of the US cotton has been established, less than 100 cents.

American cotton

It's a good purchasing area. The reason for this is that when the US cotton fell below 100 cents, Asian buying came in.

After India cotton loosened its exports, its domestic cotton prices also rose gradually, and now it is back to the top of 100 cents, which is mainly supported by China's purchasing and storage policy.

The policy of purchasing and storage is gradually clear.

In March, the state announced the new policy of purchasing and storing the new year. However, due to the fact that the details have not been clear, the market has been worried about the support of the policy. Especially in the extreme pessimistic mood, the market generally has a sense of mistrust about the policy. This leads to the fact that the domestic cotton spot price is still unable to stop after a short period of time.

Recently, with the development and Reform Commission announcing that the new year's purchase and storage will adopt the principle of unlimited price acquisition and preparations for the official withdrawal of the reserve cotton store, the doubt began to recede, and the unlimited price collection and storage indicated that the country became a complete underwriter, and the policy intensity and the bidding limit in 2008 were not the same.

At present, the maximum capacity of the State Reserve is close to 4 million tons, which is more than half of the total output of our country, which means that the price of 19800 yuan / ton cotton will become a real bottom.

Early cotton continued to fall, on the one hand.

Cotton price

Excessive consumption leads to shrinkage. On the other hand, the normal cycle of the industrial chain is broken due to falling cotton prices. The clear policy of State purchasing and storage helps to reverse the pessimism of the market and rebuild the positive cycle of the market.

Environment of cotton spinning industry tends to improve

The cotton market has tended to be stable in recent years, and the CCIndex328 index has picked up slightly for a short time. Although the rate is small, it has ended the decline in spot prices for half a year. Textile mills really began to accept 19800 yuan / ton cotton price as the lowest cotton cost.

With the stabilization of spot, the situation of cotton buyer's market has changed.

Textile enterprises

The market may begin to pay attention to new cotton coming soon.

At this point in time, the handover of new and old cotton is very important. Some of the earlier listed areas have been listed sporadically, and the purchase price of new cotton in Turpan, Xinjiang is 4.2 - 4.5 yuan / Jin.

The mainland's new cotton market was first listed in the southern part of Shandong in the middle and late 8. The rainy weather is more frequent, which has affected some cotton growth. Due to the particularity of geographical location and time, the weather in this region will affect the short-term fluctuation of the price and may even affect the tone of the whole year.

The yarn market is also stabilizing, and the whole cotton yarn has been declining continuously. The current 32S is basically stable around 26700 yuan / ton. Referring to the current spot price, the gross profit margin of 32S has been restored to about 6% to 8%, which means that the small cotton mill with high price and small stock has already turned into a deficit, which will promote the production of the pre production enterprises to resume production and thus stabilize the cotton demand.

With the stabilization of cotton prices, orders for downstream wait-and-see will arrive one after another, and the inventory of cotton mill and grey fabric plant is accelerating.

China cotton information network July textile enterprises survey shows that cotton yarn and grey cloth inventory ring down significantly, including yarn inventory fell 5 days to 30 days, grey cloth inventory decreased 1 days to 15 days, although the absolute value of inventory is still high, but this is the first time in recent months, the chain fell.

Cotton prices and yarn prices will be further stabilized after August. It is foreseeable that the inventory of textile mills will further fall in August.

There has been no significant change in the fundamentals of cotton in recent years, but there are indications that the worst of the textile industry is over and the industry is in recovery.

Statistics from the National Bureau of statistics show that in July, China's yarn production was 2 million 446 thousand tons, a decrease of 6.1%, which is in line with the situation of some textile factories, and partly explained the decline in yarn stock.

At the same time, the amount of textile and clothing exports in July was 25 billion 996 million US dollars, an increase of 13% over the same period, and the textile industry is bound to anticipate the coming autumn season under the good performance of external demand.

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Conclusion

At present, the spot stays down, the external market is strong, and the rain in Shandong and Henan is relatively easy for the environment to rebound. Due to the weakening of cotton for too long, the risk of raging bounce still exists. The policy of purchasing and storage only stipulates the bottom, and the rebound height also depends on the further improvement of the environment.