Central Bank Volume Reduction, Stable Hedge Reserve

Central bank in August 30th

Last Tuesday, the 3 billion yuan 1 year central bank ticket issued by the tender was issued at a price of 96.54 yuan, corresponding to the yield of 3.5840%, ending the previous week's rally, greatly reducing the interest rate expectations raised before the central bank's interest rate rose to the market.

No repo operation was conducted on that day.

According to statistics, the funds expended in the open market this week amounted to 27 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2 billion yuan compared with last week.

"In the background of low maturity and tighter market capital, the reduction in the price of the 1 year central bank is in line with common sense.

With the widening of the market spread of the central bank's one or two tier market, the recent open market has become the norm.

Traders of a state-owned commercial bank said that the yield of the 1 - year central bank was flat again, which led to the expectation of a rise in interest rate and the central bank demanded business.

It is estimated that if the data at the end of 7 are the basis of payment, then 150 billion yuan, 230 billion yuan, 230 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan and 100 billion yuan will be required from September.

In October and November, the biggest rebound occurred.

Within 6 months, the expected recovery of 900 billion yuan is equivalent to the amount of funds expired in the open market in the current period. In order to avoid a sharp tightening and phased fluctuation in liquidity, it is expected that the open market will increase net investment to hedge the impact.

Market analysts generally believe that the deposit will be replaced by the central bank's open market.

"The deposit will be pferred to the central bank within 3-6 months by nearly 900 billion yuan in the margin deposit of commercial banks.

In the context of the current fall in foreign exchange holdings, the move is enough to hedge liquidity for half a year.

Therefore, it is no longer necessary to raise the probability of raising interest rates.

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan Securities, said (micro-blog).

In July, the increase in foreign exchange has dropped to 219 billion 626 million yuan, 277 billion 328 million yuan in June.

However, the NDRC stressed in yesterday's economic analysis report that China's inflationary pressures are continuing to increase, while the sovereign debt problem of the major developed economies in the world is becoming increasingly serious, and the impact of China's import inflation has not been significantly weakened, and domestic production costs are still facing upward pressure, and the prices of some cities are still relatively high.

This is quite different from that predicted by the NDRC in early August.

"From the perspective of anti inflation, the expectation of interest rate hike still exists.

As for the timing of raising interest rates, it is likely that it will not be clear until the August CPI figures are available.

But it is certain that it can be ruled out.

The traders said.

In the money market, interest rates continued to rise, but the margin decreased somewhat.

Yesterday, the interbank offered rate (Shibor) in Shanghai, except for the 2 week interest rate callback of 3.95 basis points, rose in different ranges. The overnight interest rate rose 26.58 basis points to 3.4308, and the 1 week interest rate rose 57.89 basis points to 4.9750.

The overnight repurchase rate rose 26.90 basis points to 3.4417 that day, and FR007 rose 61 basis points to 5.

These market shows that funds are in a very tight position.

The reporter learned from the insiders that the agencies are busy preparing for the deposit of reserve funds, and the demand for the central bank is in the doldrums. It is also reasonable for the central bank to reduce the issuing scale of the central bank in a timely manner.

The person predicted that, if there is no accident, Thursday's 3 month central bank will also be issued at a low volume, and the repo may also be suspended.

Last Thursday, the central bank issued 3 billion yuan 3 month central bank vote and 3 billion yuan 91 day repo.

According to statistics, the funds expended in the open market this week amounted to 27 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2 billion yuan compared with last week.

The central bank has maintained a net open market for six weeks in a row, with a total net income of 219 billion yuan.

In August, the central bank invested 167 billion yuan in the open market.

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