&Nbsp Is A Strong Support For Policy Formation, And Cotton Purchase And Storage Is A Double-Edged Sword.

Looking at the current fundamentals of cotton market, this year's cotton purchase and storage policy is undoubtedly the hot spot of the market. The so-called Cheng Xiao He also defeated Xiao He. The cotton purchase and storage policy is like a double-edged sword, supporting cotton prices and suppressing the uplink of cotton prices.

Purchasing and storage policy forms strong support

The fixed purchase price of 19800 yuan / ton and unlimited purchase will undoubtedly be a cotton price this year. Bottom support 。 It is estimated that based on the purchase and storage price, the processing price of 800 yuan / ton, the price of cottonseed seed is 1.2 yuan / kg, and the lint percentage is 36%. The cotton seed purchase price of cotton enterprises is up to 4.22 yuan / Jin. In early September, the author visited the cotton textile enterprises in Hubei, and the price of seed cotton in Hubei was 4 - 4.23 - 4.24 yuan / Jin; the 3 level was about 4.44 yuan / Jin, which was much higher than the converted price.

Although the purchase price is much more than the cotton price, the author thinks that the price rise is limited due to the current price difference. According to the results of the author's investigation, the quality of cotton has increased significantly over the past year, and the proportion of cotton reaching the delivery level of the futures market will increase. If the price rises sharply, more enterprises will choose to make delivery in the futures market, which will not be conducive to the smooth operation of the purchase and storage. Therefore, from the perspective of ensuring the successful completion of the purchase and storage, the author believes that the cotton price is not expected to be eye-catching.

Signs of improvement in consumption

Another factor that has to be considered in the fundamentals is downstream consumption. It is noteworthy that 8 months later, cotton consumption seems to have improved. From the author's investigation, we can learn from it. Downstream garment enterprises With the increase of Christmas orders, the operating rate of textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has been significantly improved. At present, the local operating rate has basically recovered to around six or seven, which has been greatly improved by 40% below the lowest level. The sale of cotton spot market has also improved, and the demand for cotton quality is also increasing. Some companies prefer to spend higher prices on cotton with better quality. Therefore, I believe that after August, domestic cotton demand will show a gradual improvement, which will help short-term cotton spot prices up.

Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating.

Based on the above analysis, I believe that the current price of spot 328, 19600 yuan / ton, the spot price continues to uplink probability is larger, according to the current seed cotton purchase price to be converted, lint price is 19583 yuan / ton (not processing fees, clothing loss and processing loss are calculated by 1%), and we reckon that the spot sale price is expected to reach 20400 yuan / ton should be reasonable.

In the futures market, CF1205 contracts hovered above 22000, with a base of 2400 yuan / ton, which is higher than that of history. Average range 。 Based on the above analysis of the current price difference, I believe that the space above the price is limited, the top 22570 points will be an important juncture. If we can successfully break through, cotton prices will still be able to see the high line to around 23100. If we can not break through, the price may continue to return to below 22000 points to maintain weak shocks. This will be the right time to return to base.

In general, from the current information, cotton in the new cotton year is expected to ease the decline in the first half of this year and get out of a relatively stable oscillation market. It is expected that the annual fluctuation will not be too great. Investors can try band operation in such a big environment to get the corresponding profit.