Systemic Risk Is Still &Nbsp; PTA Is Highly Unstable.

Thursday PTA main contract 1201 slightly opened after high oscillation Downwards, the number of positions has been reduced by 25048, and the daily turnover has decreased by 266334. The average line system is still showing a long arrangement, and the 20 day average line support is obvious. The author believes that although the fundamentals of PTA are good, systemic risks remain, and the high oscillation pattern will remain high in the near future.

The macro level is good enough to be determined, and systemic risks remain.

The biggest uncertainty in the market is still from the eurozone, of which Greece's debt problem is the focus of the market. On the afternoon of 14, Moodie, an international rating agency, announced that, due to Societe Generale's Greek bonds risk Too much exposure has lowered its credit rating from Aa2 to Aa3. The Agricultural Bank of France has also been dragged down by Greek bonds, downgraded from Aa1 to Aa2, and the Paris Bank of France has not changed. On the other hand, US President Obama announced the launch of the employment stimulus package with a total scale of $447 billion. The market's concerns about the US job market downturn were eased, but the implementation of the specific plan still needs to be approved by Congress.

Domestically, the domestic CPI data released in August last week are better than expected. The market expects monetary policy to gradually become loose. But on the whole year's economic data, the inflation situation is still not optimistic. Therefore, even with optimistic estimates, monetary policy needs to wait until November and beyond. On the whole, the macro face is short and urgent.

PX supply is tight in advance, reflecting limited upstream space.

It is reported that Fu Jia Da Hua has stopped in September 8th, and it will take about a year to stop from work and resume work. During this period, the capacity of the unit can be regarded as a loss of 700 thousand tons. Between 9 and October, 30% of the PX capacity in Asia will be stopped. Market expectations for tight supply of PX have been advanced in price.

Judging from the processing profit of naphtha - MX - PX, the PX processing profit is very rich at present, the processing profit of MX is about 350 USD / ton, and the MX PX processing profit is about 250 USD / ton, which is higher than the normal processing profit.

Downstream demand is strong, PTA spot prices continue to rise.

From the current PX PTA processing profit, although the huge profits of a thousand yuan per ton over the peak period dropped significantly, but the recent downstream demand is strong, spot prices accelerate upward, according to the spot PX external disk. Price Conversion, still has more than 600 yuan per ton of theoretical processing profit, excluding the failure of the negative burden, PTA manufacturers have higher driving force.

The demand for textiles is at its peak, and polyester stocks remain low for a long time, so the polyester plant has a relatively high operating rate, and the demand for PTA is very strong. From the current situation of the whole PTA industry, it runs well. Although the price of PX continues to be high, the profits of all links remain basically within the normal range.

Although the spot price of PTA has been rising all the way, the price of PTA futures has remained oscillating for nearly a week. On the one hand, the interest in capital participation has been reduced. On the other hand, it also reflects the market's doubts about whether the terminal demand can be expected on schedule. As mentioned above, the major developed economies such as Europe and the United States are now facing the situation of weak economic growth, and China. Spin The industry itself is facing difficulties in its operation, and its acceptance of high priced raw materials is limited. If the terminal consumption is not as good as expected, PTA prices are likely to descend rapidly from the current high level.

On the whole, it is expected that the PTA fundamentals will continue to run well before the National Day holiday. Investors should pay close attention to the macroeconomic trend when they are cautious in their early stages.