Self Reliance: Why Does Zheng Cotton Futures Rebound?

乘著國慶長假的東風(fēng)，10月8、9日鄭期主力合約背靠12000強勁反彈（9月底CF2001盤中低點11970），連破12200、12300等整數(shù)關(guān)口，令空頭、套保盤有些“丈二和尚摸不著頭腦”，在2019/20年度新棉大量加工上市、棉花調(diào)控政策杳無音信及中美第13輪貿(mào)易磋商“前途未卜”、國內(nèi)棉花消費下降并未明顯止跌的大背景下，鄭期卻率先發(fā)力上漲，各合約一片飄紅；但奇怪的是從近兩日成交量、持倉量仍比較低來看，鄭期上漲并未刺激棉花加工企業(yè)、棉花貿(mào)易商及投資機構(gòu)、投機商等大力跟進，缺乏實體配合；再疊加棉花供給充足、外圍市場偏空等因素，因此筆者判斷鄭期大幅反彈乃至反轉(zhuǎn)的希望不大，12500、12800等關(guān)口突破還需2019/20年度收儲、央行降準(zhǔn)甚至降息、外圍大宗商品期貨大漲及中美貿(mào)易談判取得階段性進展（簽署部分協(xié)議）等等利好支撐，否則不非除主力再破12000，創(chuàng)三 Year and a half new low.

Why did the rebounding trend of Zheng Zheng without a sign rebound? Some institutions and cotton companies are still speculating on the "hype" of real estate (credit and policy pressure on the real estate market). The stock market has fallen below 3000 points, and it has been difficult to rebound. Therefore, a large amount of liquidity flowing into the commodity futures market has been released, and agricultural products have become the leader of the rise. If judging from volume and position, this judgment is not unreasonable, but it is more prudent to do more power and speculative capital. However, the author believes that there are still several factors to support Zheng's highly limited rebound.

First, during the 10.1 national day, the international market of soybeans, corn and other futures rose sharply (ICE futures rose from 59.58 to 61.80), triggering a rise in prices of agricultural products after the holidays, and cotton was only rising passively.

The two is a large number of hedging plates entering the market, pulling up the vacant bill, resulting in the rapid rise of the contracts, but the bottom is not enough. In 2019/20, not only cotton traders "two pronged" - on the one hand, vigorously purchasing and booking warehouse cotton (mainly machine picked cotton); on the other hand, more than 70% of the resources to achieve hedging, and cotton ginning plants and cotton processing enterprises will also "hedging" as the most important part of the risk control, the proportion of hedging has increased significantly (for some cotton enterprises, 2018/19 does not cover or cover a low proportion of lessons deep).

The three is the thirteenth round of trade consultation between China and the United States after the national day. Although differences and contradictions are still greater, consultations that are able to sit down, equality and mutual respect are more favorable than the "escalation" and "tariff" to the global economy and the two countries' economies.

Four is about the 2019/20 North Xinjiang and Akesu part cotton area seed cotton per unit yield decline judgment unceasingly ferment, or causes Xinjiang cotton total production to glide. From late August to early September, some cotton areas such as Akesu were exposed to rainy, cold and light weather for about half a month. The boll weight, boll number, quality and marketing period of cotton were affected to varying degrees; and the low precipitation and accumulated temperature in Northern Xinjiang also restricted cotton growth, flowering, boll opening (top peach loss) and superimposed hail weather on yield reduction and harvest.