Polyester Industry Chain Monthly Report: Rising Raw Materials Rose &Nbsp; Downstream Follow-Up Effort &Nbsp; The Market Facing The Test.

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The question of where the market will go next is increasing.

Raw material Market:

After entering the three quarter, the PET raw material installation, especially the PX and PTA installations, constantly broke down, and there was a stop message. First, the CNOOC Huizhou refinery fire caused the annual output of 840 thousand tons of PX plant to be shut down, and then there was more delay to restart the news in November. Then there was a series of fires in Formosa Plastics, which led to the rectification of the government of Taiwan authorities, involving the PX device with an annual output of 270 thousand tons. After that, there was an incident of "Fu Jia Da Hua", and after that, 1 million tons of PX devices in Xinjiang Dushanzi petrochemical company also reported adverse news.

According to the incomplete statistics of CCFEI, the total capacity of the PX device in the Asian region is more than 7 million tons in total in 7-10 months, and the cumulative loss effective PX output is about 1 million tons, which is equivalent to about 150 tons of PTA output. The equivalent of Helen Petrochemical's new plant is completely put into operation.

Similarly, in the three quarter, the PTA device also maintained continuous information, Yangzi Petrochemical 350 thousand tons, Taiwan Ningbo 800 thousand tons, Yisheng Ningbo 3 million 300 thousand tons, Zhuhai BP90 million tons, Jiangyin Hon Bang 600 thousand tons, Luohua 325 thousand tons, Shanghai Petrochemical 400 thousand tons and so on and even stopped.

The equivalent of these PTA devices is enough to offset Yisheng (Ningbo + Dalian) expansion this year.

On the MEG side, because the market is basically consistent with the expectation of tight supply and demand for MEG in the future, the MEG inventory is at a high level, regardless of whether factories or traders are in the background of MEG. So the Formosa incident failed to effectively drive up the price of MEG at the very beginning.

However, taking into account the four sets of 1 million 800 thousand sets of MEG devices repaired by Formosa Plastics, the contract goods 25-30% will be cut down in September, while the 380 thousand tonnes of MEG installations of Shanghai Petrochemical Company and the 640 thousand ton MEG devices of SABIC will begin to be overhauled in mid September. MEG successfully managed to reach 10000 yuan at the juncture of PTA.

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The centralized shutdown of the PX-PTA-MEG plant has resulted in a significant reduction in raw material inventories in the short run.

In addition, the futures PTA has been competing for 10000-10150 points recently, while the PTA supplier has adjusted the September contract price to 10800-11000 yuan / ton in the near future. The price of PTA has been around 10600 yuan / ton in the spot market. Although the market quotation has increased and 10600 has been concluded, the spot premium is still nearly 500 points, which also confirms the fact that the PTA stock has fallen.

The excessive price difference between the spot and the spot is always a major driving force for the bull.

Downstream status:

For enterprises, regardless of price hikes, their pursuit is to maximize profits.

In the 1-7 month of this year, the overall profit of polyester enterprises is still high, and some of the products are relatively normal.

But after entering August, with the increase of raw material prices far higher than polyester products, part of the profit margins of polyester enterprises are exploited by raw materials.

In addition, at present, the polyester shops are not very high, so for polyester factories, it seems to be more inclined to insist on the current price and take advantage of the situation to improve the products.

In the context of tight raw material supply and high cost, it is not difficult to reduce the cost of raw materials in order to expand profits.

At present, what is most tangled is the downstream textile industry. In the first half of the year, rumors of textile export tax rebates reduced the enthusiasm of enterprises, and some of them were issued ahead of schedule.

After mid August, the downstream textile market did not show enthusiastic enquiries in the same period of the previous year, but the price of silk continued to climb its own way.

At present, the main areas of the main textile areas in the lower reaches are different, the warp knitting industry in Haining region is early winter, and it has a series of impact on the Taicang region, while the order of the warp knitting industry in Changshu is good, but it is only affected by the high price silk, and the profit is not good.

The water spray enterprises in Shengze are generally weak, although sales of some products in autumn and winter have picked up, but sales volume has always been difficult to quantify. In addition, local and surrounding enterprises have high inventory of grey cloth, and some enterprises with tight capital turnover have to sell at a low price, and even in order to recover funds, they choose to sell at a loss.

Shandong's waterjet concentrates in Changyi is in a better position. Apart from considering the start of the environmental inspection of unlicensed looms this weekend, the market demand for local mink cashmere is good, which is the key to the smooth flow of the upstream and downstream industries in Changyi.

This year, the situation of circular machines has been in a doldrums. Up to now, it has been difficult to lift the garden machines in Xiaoshao and Fuguang areas, and most of them are in 5-7.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of customs, China's textile and apparel exports in August were 25 billion 451 million US dollars, down 2.51% from July, up 2.6% over the same period last year.

Among them, the export of textiles decreased by 3.90%, and the export of garments and accessories decreased by 1.19%.

China's textile and garment exports began to show signs of decline.

In addition to the rapid increase in labor costs and huge fluctuations in raw material prices in the Chinese market, some of the external losses have been lost to other factors such as Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. The US recession and the European debt crisis are becoming more and more intense. The economic downturn in Europe and the United States has caused panic among investors all over the world. Rebuilding after Japan's earthquake has required huge investment, which has also aggravated the debt risk of Japan. Of course, the renminbi was still in the 6.4685 place in July 1st compared with the US dollar. In September 15th, it was 6.3878 in August 30th and 6.3849 in August 30th.

To sum up, the current polyester market is in a state of short play, and there are sufficient reasons for it to rise or fall.

Of course, considering the relative strength of raw materials and the low position of polyester factories, the price of silk should still be stable and medium to high.

The overall predicament of the downstream and the uncertainty of the external economic environment add a risk to the filament market which wants to continue to climb high in late September.

Once the downstream weaving enterprises have a large area of production reduction or downtime, for polyester filament enterprises, how to deal with this situation may be a major test that will be faced after October national day.