Three Factors Affecting Textile Industry

As "2011 China" Spin In an interview with our reporter, Yao Mu, chairman of the academic committee of Academia Sinica and academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering and a famous textile material expert, pointed out that the textile industry is "a" strategic In the first half of twenty-first Century, the industry of "emerging content" will continue to develop rapidly. At the same time, the pattern of the world's textile industry is undergoing profound changes. The processing of many high-end products and industrial textiles is shifting from the economically developed traditional textile powers to China; the processing of low-grade clothing and household textiles is shifting from China to South and Southeast Asian countries. And oil, natural gas and other factors that affect the development of the textile industry will be accelerated and the labor costs will rise sharply. obstacle 。

　　 Three changes will take place in world textile industry

Reporter: what do you think is the biggest change in the future world and China's textile industry? What opportunities and challenges will China face in this change?

Yao Mu: in the future, at least three major changes will have a major impact on the development of the textile industry.

First, the global textile raw materials will be very scarce, which has attracted high attention both inside and outside the industry.

Judging from natural fiber materials, land resources have become the most important factors restricting their output. Over the next few decades, the global population will also be A surge 。 According to projections issued by the United Nations in 2000, the global population will reach 7 billion 600 million in 2050. In January 2009, the United Nations will increase the global population forecast to 9 billion 200 million in 2050, 9 billion 300 million in April 2010, and 9 billion 400 million in February this year. The direct consequence of population explosion is that the food problem has become the first contradiction in the world. In 2009, China has transformed from a net grain exporting country to a net grain importing country. The 1 billion 800 million mu arable land "red line" has become the lifeline of China's grain security. Under such strict farmland policy, the planting area of traditional natural fibers is difficult to guarantee, and directly affects its production and supply.

Another important material of textile raw materials, more than 85% of chemical fiber belongs to petroleum based products, and is also affected by the depletion of oil and natural gas. In November 8, 2010, Davies, an economist at California State University, said that the global oil and gas resources will be exhausted in 2050. This is not alarmist. In addition, regenerated chemical fibers rely on cotton lint and wood pulp and so on. The growth of fast-growing wood is also difficult to grow. Therefore, the future development of textile fiber materials must find another way out.

Second, the application structure of textile products is accelerating, and the trend from clothing to home textiles, especially in the field of industrial use, is very obvious. It can be said that the huge growth space of textile industry in the coming decades is mainly from the field of industrial use. Expand 。

Recall that in 1977, more than 6000 experts from the United Nations organized the world development plan in the first half of twenty-first Century. Experts have pointed out that as the main raw material of clothing and home textiles, the development space of textile fibers has been saturated. At that time, the world's per capita fiber consumption reached 6 kilograms, and clothing consumption exceeded 3.6 kilograms. The development space of the textile industry was shrinking. Therefore, from 1977 to ~1980, the United States, the European Union and other countries and regions regard the textile industry as "sunset industry" and transfer capacity to the third world countries. But in fact, during the 10 years of ~1990 in 1980, the textile industry has not declined, and has come to another climax: the total global fiber processing increased from about 30000000 tons to about 40000000 tons, an increase of 37%. The reason is that the large-scale application of industrial textiles has opened up a new huge market.

According to UN forecasts, by 2050, the total amount of global textile fiber processing will reach 2.53 billion tons, which is nearly 3 times higher than the current about 70000000 tons. Among them, the processing volume of industrial textiles will reach 1.7 billion tons, and the per capita fiber consumption will be 18.53 kg / person / year, accounting for 67.4% of the total fiber processing. For the big textile country like China, the development of industrial textiles is of great significance. It goes without saying that 。

Third, the labor cost of China's textile industry has risen significantly, which is comparable to that of the textile giants in the United States and Britain in the 70s. Since 2003, the cost of processing labor in China's textile industry has gradually increased. According to the research results of the Chinese Academy of engineering, the cost of labor in China is 2~4 times higher than that in Southeast Asia and other countries. Take India as an example, in 2009, more than 30 of India's textile labor processing costs were 38% of China's average level and 25% of the coastal areas. The low cost advantages of China's textile industry have been seriously affected. According to the national plan, the minimum wage level should be doubled during the "12th Five-Year" period, which shows that the labor cost of the textile industry will also increase significantly.

　　 Equal quantity and quality

Reporter: the shortage of raw materials has aroused great concern in the industry, and many of the "12th Five-Year plan" involved. What do you think is the problem?
Yao Mu: in terms of natural fiber, we must grasp the basic principle of not competing with the grain, minimize the use area of arable land, and use saline alkali land, wasteland and hillside land. The chemical fiber industry should make use of vast natural resources such as ocean, forest, agricultural and sideline products, and vigorously develop renewable, recyclable, biodegradable and environment-friendly biomass resources, while increasing the recycling of waste textiles.

In addition, developing products with less raw materials, high added value and obvious brand effect will be the direction of future industry development. Take Shandong Lu Tai as an example. Enterprises grow cotton and produce 300 British (508 public) cotton yarn, and then make it into a shirt outlet. The price is very high. Such a more than 3000 shirt uses only 1 tons of cotton, which has created a high profit and reduced consumption of resources, and has been able to adapt to the sharp rise in labor costs.

Under the constraints of various factors, taking into account the current development and trend of the textile industry, we must gradually abandon the production of low-grade products, transfer to Southeast Asian countries and regions, and develop high-end products in the field of clothing and household. In the field of industry, we should try our best to squeeze into the ranks of the world's largest producers and consumers. {page_break}

Reporter: you have mentioned that the decline in quality of textile materials, especially natural fibers, is a matter of great concern.

Yao Mu: indeed. In the past, the contradiction between quantity and quality of raw materials was not prominent because the premise was to use low-end textiles as the object. In the future, we need to produce more value-added products with less raw materials. This contradiction will become increasingly prominent. Therefore, we must strive to improve the quality of textile raw materials, not just production.
Industrial textiles should be ready to play a supporting role.

Reporter: the viewpoint that industrial textiles is a new growth pole in the industry has become the consensus of the industry. But how to make industrial textiles more smoothly and interdisciplinary?

Yao Mu: industrial textiles need a variety of raw materials, a variety of technology complex, its application areas, the use of a wide range of environments, so the development of final products must be "government, production, learning, research, use" combination, but also for the various needs of the development of new fiber varieties, new textile processing technology, equipment, develop a series of testing technology and instruments, set up a series of new standards.

Under the leadership of the government, the textile industry should be willing to play a supporting role, pushing the relevant organs and units of the end users to the leading position, jointly developing the services for the latter process, forming a complete industrial chain and the final product market. For example, in order to solve the problem of the expansion of the west to East power transmission project, in order not to occupy the new land resources, we mainly use the power sector, use the new textile technology, use carbon fiber in the middle layer of the transmission cable, use basalt fiber as insulation layer, and change the copper conductor to aluminum conductor in the outer layer, so that the transmission capacity of the conductive cable will increase from 1000 amperes to 2000 amperes, and the diameter will be reduced from 48mm to 28mm, and the electromagnetic radiation will also decrease obviously.

There is no doubt about the broad prospects for the development of industrial textiles. The United Nations has issued a prediction that the world steel material processing volume will drop to 50% in 1980, and the reduction in quantity will be mainly replaced by fiber reinforced composite materials in 2050. With the recovery of investment cost of high performance materials research and development, coupled with the progress of equipment technology, the comprehensive cost will further decline, and the product performance will continue to improve, and its application will be more and more extensive.

　　 Long term publicity for recycling waste resources

Reporter: in the recycling of textile waste resources, domestic achievements have been gratifying, but there is still a big gap between the product grades, especially the consumption concept, and the developed countries. How should we improve it?

Yao Mu: through the 10 years of social propaganda and education, the developed countries have made people realize the importance of recycling. People are willing to spend more than the price of original products to buy recycled products less than the quality of original products, so as to protect the earth's environment and take pride in it. This is not a matter of morning and evening. The gap between the two sides is very obvious. It needs long-term publicity and education.

Reporter: what are your expectations for the first annual academic meeting this year?

Yao Mu: the various problems and puzzles involved in the development of the industry ahead can be discussed at this annual academic conference. It is particularly worth mentioning that the textile academic award will be set up at this annual meeting, and a group of textile academic leaders, especially young and middle-aged scientists and technicians, will be commended to guide the industry to lay stress on basic theoretical research. As the world textile industry has shifted to China, other countries have lost the power and capability of basic theoretical research. Many former textile powers have shut down textile related majors in Colleges and universities. In the past, the world's textile high level magazines were reduced from 490 to 16. As a big textile country, China should shoulder its responsibilities.