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Where Should Cotton Be In Shock?

2011/9/23 9:06:00 33

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Cotton has been oscillating for about 2 months in this region, and the state has unlimited storage and storage at the bottom.

Big sale

Sell-off, plus spot slump.

Cotton can only fluctuate in this narrow space.

New cotton has been listed on the market. The purchase price of seed cotton is around 4.2 yuan / kg, and its output is expected to increase by 12% over the past year.

Enterprise order

Less than in previous years.

The stock of cotton yarn is still very large, and there are still some old cotton in the hands of the spot traders.

All this seems to indicate that cotton can not rise, but the bottom of the country is the bottom, and the space that falls will die.

And I think it is not.

19800 of the country's acquisition and storage price is strictly measured, including the cost of planting cotton, processing costs, domestic demand, and the entire industrial chain.

That is to say, cotton is unlikely to fall below this price in the next few years, which is the lowest price.

From the perspective of new cotton this year, cotton farmers have a rather heavy selling mentality. According to the author's understanding, the purchase price of seed cotton is even less than 5 yuan per catty, and the yield of cotton planting is not as good as planting other crops such as corn.

Cotton production this year increased by 12% over last year, largely due to the high price of spot cotton last year, which stimulated the enthusiasm of cotton growers.

I think cotton planting area and production next year will be much lower than this year.

national treasury

The capacity of cotton is 3 million 600 thousand tons, accounting for nearly 50% of the country's output.

I believe that this year the state can receive a large number of cotton, which will cause the market circulation of cotton reduction.

Many spot traders complain that exports are not good. Now the use ratio of polyester is increasing rapidly.

The author believes that demand will gradually shift to domestic demand under the influence of European and American demand and domestic adjustment structure.

At the same time, as cotton textiles, it is impossible to use polyester, cotton is always used, the use ratio of cotton will be gradually reduced, but the comfort of cotton can not be replaced by polyester.

In the case of a large number of cotton market and the state monetary policy is not loose, it is difficult for cotton to start the rising market.

However, I believe that once the end of the acquisition of cotton and the state loosened monetary policy, it will be the day of cotton re - rising.

From another point of view, the state's acquisition and storage is always at the lowest point, and it will be sold at the highest point.

In summary, I believe that cotton will probably rise at the end of this year or early next year, and 25000 will be seen again. It is only a matter of time.