Expert Analysis: Macro Policy Has No Turning Point &Nbsp; Short Term Market Is Hard To Do.

Q: this week, the A share market has been widely concussion. Wednesday Changyang, but Thursday cloudy, Friday is very hesitant to return, how to view such a trend?

A: actually, there is a strong A share market this week. Stability expectation 。 On the one hand, because of the approaching National Day holiday, past practice shows that stability and stability funds will come out and be active. Index stocks In order to create a relatively auspicious market atmosphere to welcome the arrival of long holidays. On the other hand, China's hydropower has entered the inquiry period and will be released online next Wednesday. And in the downturn of the market, the issuance of auxiliary routes for the new stock market, various funds also have the impulse to protect the disk. Therefore, not only the warm air blowing at the level of public opinion, but also to the specific operational level, on Wednesday, the stock market and other varieties of the stock market took the lead, pushing the A share market to have a retaliatory rebound. It is a pity that the global capital market is in a state of panic at present. It is mainly two points. First, the European debt incident has not been leveled again, which has left the global investors in a panic. The two is that a series of meetings held recently by the Federal Reserve have not yet come up with new policies to stimulate economic growth. So the global stock market crashed. In this context, the A share market is also difficult to take advantage of itself, a sustained drop, the Shanghai Composite Index in this week is the test of 2400 points to support the trend. It seems that the global capital market volatility closed the A stock market once opened for stability time window.

Q: this week, the gem showed a downward trend in the concussion. trend But the stock market is still relatively active. How do we view this trend?

A: recent market discussions on the pace of expansion of new shares exacerbated the adjustment pressure of the growth enterprise market, because in the course of the discussion, there are some unfavorable information on the IPO. Short term new shares Market stabilization. Affected by this, this week's gem shows that there is an optimistic form of K-line. However, the disk shows that there is still a bit of red in the evergreen clusters, for example, this weekend's source equipment impact trading board, tie Han ecology, Xiu Qiang shares and other stocks are also against the trend, and the Japanese K-line form has the bottom meaning. Such a trend shows that the overall shape of the market is not good, which does not mean that the market lacks investment opportunities. The reason is that the advantage of gem lies in its high growth. Therefore, although the current global economy is facing some pressure, for some of the subdivision industries, there is a trend of sustained economic recovery due to the existence of downstream demand. It can be seen that although the gem index is adjusted to a great pressure, some GEM stocks can weaken the pressure of high valuation and squeeze out the independent market because of the existence of high growth and future acquisitions and other super expected growth factors.

Q: Although the A share market is active again this week, the ST sector continues to show strong stocks. How do we view this pattern?

A: such a situation reflects that ST shares are actually roses on the edge of a cliff. Why? Because the future of ST shares is all in the hope of restructuring. In the process of restructuring, small and medium investors are even weaker. When they are restructured, restructured and restructured, asset returns will not be grasped by small and medium-sized investors. At the same time, the restructuring threshold has also increased rapidly, for example, backdoor listing is similar to IPO, for example, the growth pace of the growth enterprise board and small and medium board, which means that the difficulty of restructuring the ST shares is rapidly improving. Then, once the future ST shares enter the period of suspension and listing, it is difficult to find the reorganizing party. Then, the long wait is the best result, and the worst result is to enter the old three board market. The hidden risks are not so great. However, we also admit that the ST plate is indeed "Rose". On the one hand, the current disk has shown that the ST plate will increase significantly in the short term. On the other hand, there is an example in history, and the power of example is endless. From the historical trend, the ST plate is either black horse or black horse. So there are risks and opportunities. The ST plate is indeed the place where roses are blooming. Among them, two kinds of ST shares can be tracked, one is the variety that can be accumulated continuously, and the two is that the prospects for restructuring have been clear or there are strong expectations for subsequent restructuring.

Q: after Friday afternoon, rumors such as lowering deposit reserve ratio and other rumors appeared. Affected by this, the A share market seems to have stabilized after the afternoon. How do we view this phenomenon?

A: for now, I tend to think that the trend of next week is still not optimistic. Why? First, the European debt crisis has not subsided. The two is that although the A share market seems to be facing big rebound opportunities, but from the sub index, the output price index of PMI in September has risen to a high level in five months, and the investment price index has climbed to 58.8, a four month high. This shows that there will still be some inflationary pressures in the future. Against this background, the market generally expects that the CPI growth rate will not drop significantly in September, and will remain at a high level of around 6%. Accordingly, inflation pressure is still large. Under this background, there will be no major changes in the direction of monetary policy in the short term. That is to say, there is no turning point in macro policy. In this case, the medium-term trend of the A share market is also hard to break. Based on this, A share market short term is still difficult to make a big contribution. On the one hand, it will still be affected by the fluctuation of the external market, on the other hand, it will also be frustrated by the funds that have been expecting the turning point of macro policy but will never appear. Therefore, the Shanghai composite index is likely to test the possibility of the 2400 point trend in low volatility next week. Therefore, we should be cautious in the operation and reduce the positions as far as possible.