Stock Market Gold Growth Stocks &Nbsp; Investment Needs Pformation

Shenyin Wanguo Institute convened 2011 autumn macro strategy discussion and small and medium growth

From the domestic perspective, economic pformation has had a substantial impact on the economy.

On the one hand, the focus of development will shift from speed to quality and increase in the price of resource elements. On the other hand, the improvement of private economy, the Midwest and the improvement of consumption conditions will help improve the stability of economic growth; from the international perspective, financial turmoil will aggravate, economic growth will be weak, and the recovery period of the global economy may be extended.

The shadow of subprime mortgage crisis has not yet come out, and Europe and the United States have fallen into the sovereign debt crisis.

There is little room for fiscal policy, monetary policy will also be used to the extreme, but the economy is still hard to see.

The two major factors, domestic and international, determine that the strong cyclical characteristics of China's economic growth in the past showing high growth and big fluctuations have begun to weaken. In the future, they will present a weak growth cycle characterized by higher growth, smaller volatility and more diversified growth.

But on the other hand, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about China's economy, because some new growth points that are quietly emerging in the pformation of China's economic development mode are being molded so that the Chinese economy can achieve the unification of pformation and growth in the weak cycle.

These new growth forces are mainly reflected in investment and export from the perspective of investment pformation, mainly in private investment, the Midwest, the two or three line, equipment upgrading investment and consumer investment; from the perspective of export pformation, this is mainly reflected in the upgrading of export structure and the growth of export from emerging markets.

According to Shen Wan research, the investment pattern of the A share market is changing. From the cyclical share trading to the growth stock gold rush, the cyclical trading is the mainstream of investment before 2010. But after 2010, the cyclical shares are only "three Epiphyllum", and the growth stocks investment has become a trend.

The fundamental reason is that the capital market always focuses on the future, and the pformation and growth stocks represent the future.

Shen Wan research suggests that the real growth stocks should be increased and the belief in gold rush will be strengthened.

What kind of growth stocks are the real growth stocks?

Shen Wan believes that relying on the power of economic pformation to achieve growth stocks with high growth is particularly noteworthy.

In the fourth quarter and even next year, the two clue of investment growth brought about by the investment structure pformation may be the most eye-catching clue, which is the investment opportunities brought about by the pformation from industrial investment to consumption investment.

Because in the past eight months, investment in manufacturing related to consumer investment has accelerated significantly, and this has also been supported by the performance analysis and micro enterprise research.

From the perspective of the beneficiary industry, investment driven equipment, raw materials and services such as food, beverage, medicine and textiles and clothing are well worth watching. The second clue is that government investment is pformed from "iron and public" investment to people's livelihood investment, which involves many links such as medical, educational, affordable housing, rural construction, disaster prevention system, cultural system reform, energy conservation and environmental protection.

On the four quarter of the market trend, Shen Wan study that fourth quarter A shares will still be the main shock, the Shanghai composite index is expected to fluctuate from the core of the interval (2300 to 2700 points).

In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to select stocks in the "consumption type investment" and "people's livelihood investment". Food and beverage packaging machinery, pharmaceutical and medical equipment, disaster prevention equipment and materials, environmental protection equipment, precision machinery and equipment deserve attention.

If there is a more than expected event, that is, the substantive relaxation of domestic tightening policy ahead of schedule, then the downstream durable consumer industries (real estate, automobiles, etc.) and upstream resources industries (non-ferrous metals, coal and so on) can be allocated after the policy easing signal is released.