Cocoon Silk Market Plummeted 20%&Nbsp In The Three Quarter; Support At The End Of The Quarter.

Cocoon filament

The market is doomed to fail in many expectations.

If the market trend in the first three quarters is seen as the three road, then the three quarter is the downhill path.

From the beginning of the beginning of July, the price declines before the market continued, and until the end of September, the market was slightly buffered and weak.

The price also dropped from 380 thousand yuan / ton in early July to 305 thousand / ton at the end of 9, and the price dropped to 80 thousand yuan, or 20%.

In addition, the industry's own factors affect the price trend, and the output of upstream cocoon and the stock of the thickening factory of the silk factory also have an impact. The most important thing to ignore is the silk consumption market, which is the factor of the decline of consumption power in the European and American markets.

At the end of the season, the purchase price of autumn cocoons and the purchase and storage of silk were affected. The price of silk began to warm up. It is expected that the silver ten market will be realized in the future market under the support of favorable factors.

Analysis of influencing factors of cocoon silk market in the two and third quarters

1, the industrial chain: the third quarter has undertaken a process, that is, the end of spring cocoon and the listing of autumn cocoons.

The purchase price of spring cocoons in June reached 50 yuan per kilogram. In the dry cocoon summing up conference in July, most of this year was news that the spring cocoons were at a record high price. The cocoon silk market turbulence was not obvious at that time.

With the fall of the news, the stock of the silk thread in the dry cocoon silk reeling increased and the price began to fall.

As for downstream silk products, the consumption power is entering the freezing point. The depression in the US and Europe markets, the economic shrinkage and the reduction of market consumption have caused the export of silk products to be sluggish.

2.

3, the overall trend of the industry needs.

After the crazy rise in prices last year and the beginning of the year, the cocoon and silk industry has been turned upside down, and the industry's upstream and downstream values have been unbalanced, leading to a large number of silk factories and heavy factories closing down. Therefore, the market is bound to form a stable price system, thereby restricting the price rise of madness and making the whole cocoon and silk industry in a stable state.

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Three, third major quarterly inventory time

More time:

1. the price of summer cocoon is satisfactory.

In the three quarter, in some areas, the price of summer cocoons was 29 yuan per kilogram, the highest was 30 yuan, and the average price of summer cocoons reached a record high.

2. Guangxi continued high temperature and drought, mulberry growth is not optimistic, or cause autumn cocoon production.

In August, Guangxi Yizhou area continued high temperature and drought, and mulberry fertilization was difficult, which was extremely harmful to mulberry growth and germination.

According to the survey, more than 80% of mulberry gardens in Yizhou, after summer cutting, are "watching rain and fertilizing", that is, most of them are not trenching and fertilizing.

In the current climate situation, most mulberry gardens can not fertilize, and a few of them can fertilize under irrigation conditions.

Silkworms are expected to be postponed in the second half of the year (formerly in early August). The total amount of silkworm rearing in the second half of this year is less than in previous years, and the amount of fresh cocoons has decreased correspondingly.

Three

4. Yunnan spring and summer cocoon production is stable, autumn cocoon or drought affected, autumn cocoon production prospects are not optimistic.

More serious drought, and some areas of irrigation conditions are not perfect, has a certain impact on the growth of mulberry trees.

However, in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, it is just the opposite. Since the beginning of summer this year, there has been continuous rain and heavy rain and lack of light, resulting in serious damage to mulberry roots, serious loss of nutrients in the soil, and serious lack of photosynthesis in mulberry leaves. The rainy weather has missed several pest control opportunities. The growth of mulberry trees is particularly poor in autumn. It shows that the branches of mulberry trees are short, soft and thin, and their length is 2 feet shorter than in previous years.

5. in Guangxi area, the enthusiasm of some sericultural farmers is frustrated because of the falling price of silk.

6. in India, cocoon prices are sluggish, and silkworm farmers want to abandon mulberry.

India's silkworm industry has been pushed to the crossroads. Since the import tariff of raw silk has been cut from 30% to 5%, cocoon price has plummeted. Thousands of silkworm farmers are considering leaving the mulberry silkworm industry.

7. in order to stabilize the price of factory silk and promote the healthy development of cocoon silk industry, the state cocoon and silk office decided to start storing and storing about 1008 tons of factory silk in September.

Guangxi's cocoon price trend has formed a direct policy advantage, prompting the cocoon price rebound.

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8. domestic inflation continues. The cost of chemical fertilizer, disinfectant supplies, silkworm tools, checkerboard clusters and labor costs required for the production of silkworm cocoons has increased, resulting in an increase in the cost of cocoon production compared with the same period last year. The value determines prices and promotes the rebound of cocoon prices from the law of value.

The price of silk in the lower reaches has been rising rapidly. Silk consumption has a certain supporting effect on the cocoon price in recent years.

9. there is not much stock in cocoon station.

In the second half of the year, due to the adverse effects of the international situation, many cocoon stations are more cautious and do not have a large quantity of cocoons to collect.

Bad events:

1. in Sichuan area, the number of seed production and sericulture in summer continued to increase, and domestic autumn cocoon culture increased or increased.

According to preliminary statistics, more than 60 silkworm eggs were distributed in Sichuan province this summer, an increase of 40 thousand (7.1%) over the same period last year.

Following the autumn of 2010 and the spring of this year, the amount of seed raised in summer continued to increase, and sericulture production showed a good momentum of development.

The areas where the silkworm eggs are added are mainly concentrated in the advantageous sericulture belt, such as Panxi, South Sichuan and North Central Sichuan.

2., consumer exports are not optimistic, cocoon silk market high decline rebound difficult.

The export of silk products is not ideal this year.

Not only is the silk reeling plant in trouble, but the high priced inventory of the silk plant is difficult to digest at the same time.

The silk clothing enterprises at the end of the industrial chain can only digest some of the increased cost compared with the soaring raw material prices even if they take measures to raise prices.

3. India insiders asked for a 30% tariff on Chinese silk imports.

M Veerappa Moily, former governor of India, wrote to federal finance minister Mu Keji (Pranab Mukherjee) and Minister of industry and textile Anand Sharma (Anand Sharma), asking them to reconsider the decision to reduce tariffs on China's silk imports to 10% by 30%.

He added that so far, price fluctuations have made silkworm farmers unable to survive.

However, the domestic silk industry may not have the ability to compete with cheap Chinese silk.

Therefore, he said that 30% tariffs should be imposed on Chinese silk imports.

4. the export of reeling products has declined sharply.

This year, influenced by various factors, according to the test, the export volume of raw silk continued to decline.

5. international market demand is insufficient.

The major consumer countries and regions such as Europe, America and Japan have been recovering slowly.

The consumption capacity of cocoon silk products is limited.

6. SME loans are more difficult and lack liquidity.

The collective escape of Wenzhou bosses has shown that SME loans are difficult.

Under the influence of multiple adverse factors, silk reeling enterprises are faced with dual pressures from upstream and downstream, and production enthusiasm is hit.

7. RMB appreciation has troubled cocoon silk industry.

The appreciation of the renminbi has reached a record high, which is undoubtedly exacerbating the export-oriented cocoon and silk industry with higher export volume.

It is learnt that at present, many silk foreign trade enterprises have been seriously shrunk due to the influence of international market, and some related industry chain enterprises are also unable to bear the high cost, low profit or even negative profits.

Four, Cocoon Silk Market Outlook

From now on, the autumn cocoon production in all parts of the country will continue in recent years. However, sudden cooling will obviously have adverse effects on autumn silkworm production.

The lowest temperature in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has dropped to less than 20 degrees, and the cooling in Guangdong, Guangxi and Sichuan is also continuing.

Wind cooling and precipitation will also bring some adverse effects on autumn silkworm production.

The policy of collecting and storing the raw silk has begun to appear, and the purchasing price of cocoons has steadily increased in recent years.

On the last trading day before the national day, the price of silk in two markets rebounded.

Market outlook or support.

As far as the periphery is concerned, the European debt crisis and other factors still affect the economic recovery in Europe and the United States, and restrict the consumption level in Europe and the United States.

Chen Changsong, a business analyst, said that in the last week of September, the price of the national storage and storage factory was announced, and the cocoon silk disc rose sharply in the past two days, and lasted until the beginning of the holiday.

Therefore, it can be expected that the market after the holiday is still not weak, and the warmer is just around the corner.

It is expected that after the support of favorable factors, the "silver ten" market is likely to be realized.