CPI Has Fallen &Nbsp For Two Months In A Row; Monetary Policy Is Stable

Yesterday, the National Bureau of statistics released data show that the national residents in September

Food prices are still the most important factor affecting the overall level of CPI.

Data show that food prices rose 13.4% over the same period, affecting CPI rose by 4.05 percentage points.

Among them, pork prices rose by 43.5%, affecting the overall price level rose by about 1.24 percentage points.

Experts interviewed by the Securities Times said that although the CPI growth rate began to fall and entered a downward channel in September, the single month increase is still running at a high level, and the possibility of monetary policy turning in the near future is unlikely.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, said that the CPI data in September were roughly the same as expected.

This year, the judgment of CPI high in July will be basically established.

In September, CPI was slightly lower than in August, indicating that CPI's year-on-year growth has fallen into a downward trend.

Zhu Jianfang, chief macroeconomic economist of CITIC Securities, also believes that the CPI data in September are obviously better than expected. The factors of food price rise have been effectively controlled. This shows that the effect of the national macro-control policy is beginning to show gradually, the inflation pressure is beginning to ease, and the CPI increase will gradually return to the future.

Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, said that the CPI data in September basically met expectations, but is still at a high level. The turning point of CPI will appear in November, and it may fall below 5%.

Although experts agree that prices will continue to fall in the fourth quarter, the situation of high CPI operation has been established throughout the year.

How to find a balance in "anti inflation and growth protection"? The next stage of macroeconomic policy is attracting attention.

Zhang Liqun believes that from the current CPI data, the macroeconomic policy in the future will be that the total amount policy will remain stable. The focus of the policy will be on adjusting the economic structure, changing the way of development and speeding up reform.

Zhao Xijun, vice president of the school of Finance and finance, Renmin University of China, said that from the macro policy perspective, the active fiscal policy and the stable monetary policy mix will remain unchanged.

As far as monetary policy is concerned, it will remain fairly stable without loosening or tightening.

Zhu Jian Fang also believes that monetary policy will stabilize in the future and maintain relative balance in the short term.