A Bear Bear Market Full 4 Years &Nbsp; Pition Legend May Be Staged.

Eleven after the first week of long holidays, the most sensational event is Huijin's four major holdings.

According to the two increase in 2008 and 2009 to judge the positive effect, Huijin's first two increase is characterized by its good short-term rescue effect, but it has not changed.

In other words, in 2008 and 2009, when Huijin announced the increase in the bailout market, there was a short-term rise in the market, but after the rebound, they all hit a new low again.

So, almost all analysts recently did not agree with the turning point, and gave a surprising and consistent judgement of the technology rebound.

In the prediction of market future, we emphasize

First of all, in our dictionaries, the periodicity rule, especially the long period rule, should be trustworthy, not only in the stock market, but also in the macro economy and industry level. It is not based on what happens in the cycle.

Therefore, we attach importance to the four year cycle rule of stock market, which is better than Huijin's experience.

After all, Huijin's holdings have only happened three times in history. Taking the previous two times as an analysis sample, looking for the rule seems to be a little thin.

Secondly, the short-term market effect and market operation rhythm generated by Huijin holdings are very different from the previous two.

In September 18, 2008, Huijin announced that it would increase the number of three industries: construction, construction, and construction; in September 19th, it was the largest market.

Moreover, Huijin's three increase in its macroeconomic environment is also different.

It is not difficult to find that the current situation is similar to that of 2008, and the domestic economy is in the process of recession.

Moreover, compared to the current European debt crisis in 2008, the psychological impact on China's economy and investors is basically not a heavyweight.

The correlation between China and the United States is far greater than that of the European Union.

In 2008, many Chinese institutions were involved in the subprime crisis, and the impact of the European debt crisis was relatively limited.

China's new export orders index rebounded sharply in September, indicating that the impact of the European debt crisis on domestic exports is much lower than expected.

Through the comparative analysis of the internal and external factors mentioned above, it is not difficult to conclude that the first bailout of Huijin in 2008 did not change because of the harsh internal and external environment, which is not comparable with the current situation.

And in 2009, the second increase in the situation is much better, the increase in the 7 months after the exchange of gold, no innovation is low.

Therefore, Huijin's third increase does not rebound after the inevitability of new lows.

Judging from the domestic situation, the key to the pition of the Shanghai Composite Index after the 2318 point is the shift of monetary policy.

Starting from the joint operation of the five major central banks in the world to inject liquidity into the European banking industry, we can feel that the global rescue operation has been carried out by the two volume expansion, the French and German expansion through the European financial stability fund (EFSF) act and the ECB's expansion of the bond purchase scale again.

China's monetary policy has been positive, that is, the credit policy for small businesses has begun to relax.

On the whole, monetary policy is still at the end of the observation period.

Inflationary and housing prices all had inflection points. In September, the consumer price index (CPI) was 6.1%, slightly better than expected.

CPI is expected to continue to decline in October and inflation will be fully controlled in November.

The time for substantive relaxation of monetary policy will also be closer.

We believe that starting from this week, the turning point of capital will also emerge.

Recently, interbank lending rates and discount rate of bills have been showing signs of downtrend, which deserves attention.

Huijin holdings is the first gold medal for the government to save the market.

In the 20 years' experience of the Chinese stock market, if the first road is useless, then there will be second or third roads.

Bull markets need to be used for many times to suppress the stock market.

From the foreign situation, the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, the European debt crisis is in the most pressing stage, which is mainly due to the debt maturity peak.

Greece will face two debt maturity peaks in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, which will accumulate 35 billion euros; Italy will face 100 billion euro debt maturity in the three and four quarters of this year, and 104 billion euros will expire in the first quarter of next year.

However, from the two quarter of next year, the European debt problem will be gradually digested.

In the 2008 subprime crisis, China's stock market rebounded strongly in the first 4 months of the global market, and the Shanghai Composite Index has doubled from 1664.

Is it possible to start the market in the first 4 months of the European debt crisis?

If this law is established, October will be the starting point.

On the whole, we believe that if the Shanghai composite index reaches 2318 points, it is possible to stage a pitional legend. Its primary goal is to break through 3478 points.

On the operation, we suggest that we should focus on low price, and pay attention to the second tier blue chips, such as cement, brokerages, nuclear power and so on.