Cotton Prices Hurt The Industry Chain &Nbsp; &Nbsp; Where Is The Injury Of Cotton?
Textile enterprises are not afraid of
cotton
Rising prices and stable prices are the best. We are afraid that cotton will fall and fall continuously. If we lose our vigour, it will not be better for two or three years.
Wei Wei, a textile manufacturer in Dezhou, Shandong, sighed, because cotton prices were up and down this year, cotton purchasing and processing enterprises in Dezhou did not dare to open up acquisitions, closed up and stopped, coupled with tight funds and labor costs, many textile enterprises were forced to stop production.
Cotton prices hurt industry chain
Judging from the Zheng cotton price index, around this year's Spring Festival is still more than 33000 yuan per ton, but before and after the National Day has dropped to 20000 yuan mark, or nearly 40%.
Cotton farmers at the top of the industrial chain suffer their hardships: "seed cotton prices below four yuan, I will pay, the cost of land leasing is rising, fertilizer and labor are getting higher and higher, the price of grain protection increases year by year, and the output of seed cotton does not drop money!" a cotton farmer in Fugou, Henan, expressed his dissatisfaction.
Cotton spinning enterprises complain more and more. The situation in Dezhou reflected by Wei boss is just the tip of the iceberg.
Cotton prices hit a record high in the last cotton year due to a reduction in production and a decline in the quality of new cotton.
As a result, cotton enterprises in the middle link have seen more collectives, and hoarding cotton has become a common practice.
Finally, the textile enterprises at the end were unable to bear the burden of high price, and began to adjust their structure with polyester cotton instead of pure cotton.
The structural adjustment has led to a fall in cotton prices after the Spring Festival.
Terminal recession has hurt cotton.
The company of Ye manager in Xiamen is mainly a well-known international company.
clothing
The brand is a foundry. The cotton purchase of the group is mainly Xinjiang cotton.
According to him, in recent days, the purchase price of seed cotton has dropped in southern Xinjiang, and the spot sales of some cotton enterprises have been upside down.
The debt crisis in Europe and the United States is booming and the downstream market is stagnant. Therefore, enterprises dare not take long orders.
Ye manager said that the price of grade three cotton in the southern part of Xinjiang is now between 20300 and 20400 yuan / ton, with a loss of more than 300 yuan per ton.
In Soochow futures textile materials market analyst Wu Wenhai, the textile market downturn will continue.
According to the import and export data released last Thursday, the export volume of textile and clothing has declined for two consecutive months, and external demand is insufficient.
Downstream polyester polyester market sales slump, prices plummet.
Terminal textile demand is always weak and is affecting the upstream industry.
He believes that the current small and medium-sized enterprises are generally faced with difficulties in reducing orders and tight funds. The risk of Wenzhou private usury loan chain breaking is still spreading.
Wu Wenhai is not optimistic about the market outlook.
The stagnation of the terminal is bound to pmit to the middle and upper reaches, which is reflected in the cotton price. The national cotton price B index, representing the price of the mainland's 328 grade cotton, has been hovering over the state's storage price.
Can the national reserve purchase price hold cotton city?
According to the notice of the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of finance, this year, the State Cotton store will open up unlimited quantities of new cotton with the price of 19800 yuan / ton of standard lint.
According to projections, at present, the national cotton storage can accommodate at least 3 million 600 thousand tons of new cotton, accounting for 1/2 of the estimated cotton output this year.
It is widely expected that this further decline in cotton prices will play a role.
In the international market, USDA raised its global cotton output by 268 thousand tons in its latest October monthly report. The consumption volume dropped by 183 thousand tons under the influence of the global economic slowdown. Meanwhile, the final inventory increased by 636 thousand tons, indicating that the market fundamentals were further relaxed.
Ice cotton futures will not be changed under the influence of bad data.
For textile mills, under 100 cents or less than 95 cents is the best time to launch.
"Wei boss believes that the United States cotton still has room for reduction.
Recently, the procurement of domestic cotton enterprises has also become dull.
From the point of view of purchasing and storage, there has been a series of pactions. Up to October 12th, the total turnover was 960 tons.
This paction is not optimistic, the market is still on the sidelines, 19800 of the purchase price is about four yuan per catty five.
The acquisition cost of cotton enterprises is higher than the selling price. They are in a state of loss and dare not open up. The textile enterprises still have difficulty in running and the sales of cotton yarn are not smooth.
Reflected in the futures market, Zheng cotton's challenge price is even lower than the purchase price.
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Reflection: where is the injury of cotton?
First, cotton prices began to sing all the way from August, and the Zheng cotton index rose from 18000 to 33000.
Although business risks are constantly increasing, a considerable number of cotton processing and purchasing enterprises will continue to increase their cotton prices after gambling. Not only did they not sell their lint in time, but they increased the stock of lint. Many enterprises seized resources in the form of pledge, and continued to invest in seed cotton acquisition after obtaining the pledge.
Secondly,
lint
The craziness of prices has finally defeated the downstream textile industry. After April this year, under the pressure of cost, some textile enterprises began to readjust their product mix, reduce cotton consumption greatly, the textile enterprises' slump and the significant reduction in cotton consumption led to a rapid decline in lint prices.
Third, since the second half of this year, the debt crisis has intensified in Europe and America, especially in September.
As a commodity related to the national economy and people's livelihood, cotton price fluctuation is inseparable from the whole macro environment.
Looking at the recent two years of the cotton market, the tremendous ups and downs, leaving us more painful lessons.
To recall the pain, the cotton industry chain, especially the cotton enterprises as the middle link, should make a deep conclusion. We must look at the world with a macro perspective, respect the economic laws, and not just focus on the fundamentals of cotton varieties.
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