Chicken Market Makes The Market Very Confused.
This year will be a turning point in the golden age of China's textile industry. Professor Mao Shuchun of the Cotton Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Chen Tao, chairman of Louis Da Fu China, put forward the above view at a cotton industry summit forum held in Zhengzhou yesterday.
Specifically to cotton prices, Mao Shuchun believes that cotton prices rise to 22000 - 23000 yuan / ton is reasonable.
And Chen Tao thinks, this year cotton market is "collect and buy quotes", state purchase and storage strength decided the future cotton price trend.
Chicken market makes the market very confused.
Rising resistance and falling down are the recent
Zheng cotton
The unique characteristics of futures are described by market personas as "chicken ribs".
Judging from the Zheng cotton index, the volume of trading has continued to shrink after entering August. It has been reduced from the original millions of hands to about one hundred thousand hands nowadays, and the position has dropped from the about 500000 hand at the peak to the 350 thousand hand yesterday.
Whether investors or enterprises in the cotton industry chain, the current market is very confused.
Cotton enterprises dare not open up acquisitions, spinning enterprises can not get long orders, cotton growers do not increase production, bank lending increase.
The international macro situation is also changeable.
In Mao Shuchun's view, this year is the high yield of over 7 million tons of cotton production in China.
Imported
Will be flat or slightly lower than the same period, and consumption will also be flat or slightly lower.
The purchasing and storage price of this year is 19800 yuan, which is 7200 yuan higher than the 12600 yuan in 2008, and the increase is 57.1%. This indicates that the state's attitude towards the cotton industry is also the biggest protection for cotton farmers' rights and interests.
"He is not pessimistic about the cotton market this year. He believes that the state not only stores the stock at a relatively high price but also opens up an unlimited quantity. This is a great step.
According to Mao Shuchun's research in Xinjiang and other places, the cost of planting cotton has increased substantially over the past year, especially the rise in labor costs.
This year is basically the year of increasing production and not increasing revenue. However, in the context of the State Reserve vigorously supporting the market, if the external situation improves, the cotton market will slowly recover.
"Although Mao Shuchun is not pessimistic about the cotton market based on cost factors, his speech is still relatively conservative due to the relatively worrying prospect of the textile industry.
There is little room for cotton prices to fall in the state reserve city.
Agricultural products (13.17, -0.07, -0.53%) look at supply and demand, industrial products, consumption and energy.
Stock
。
"Chen Tao said that the current terminal market of cotton is worrying, with fewer orders and short orders, which will inevitably lead to the upstream cotton prices."
Last week, the US agricultural report was so bad. According to the normal year, cotton would have to fall at least two stop boards, and the United States cotton would have to return to 80 cents. Zheng cotton had to go down to 15000 - 16000 yuan.
Why is it so resistant? Because we have the invisible hand of our national reserve.
"The question of whether the sale of state reserves will soon be sold for fear of the market is likely to be small," Chen Tao said.
Cotton market after the market is the market, in the short term due to the downstream situation is not good, cotton can not see signs of growth.
If the market can reach more than 2 million tons before and after the Spring Festival, the cotton market is optimistic.
For the current cotton prices close to the purchase and storage price, whether Chen Tao or Mao Shuchun, there is little room for lower down.
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