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    The Price Of The Four Major Banks Rose By One Point &Nbsp A Day, And The Trend Of "One" Was Deep.

    2011/10/19 8:57:00 25

    Four Major Stock Prices

    Yesterday, the trend of the market was quite unexpected.

    After a new low of 2318.63 in October 12th, it has risen 5.25%.

    Shanghai Composite Index

    Not only did not continue the rebound pattern, but turned a sharp fall of 2.33%.

    What's interesting about this is that before the market generally believed that China's hydropower will break out yesterday, but this worrisome spectacle was refused yesterday. China's hydropower industry did not break down, and it was also 17.11% of the first day of listing.

    Gain

    In particular, the stock market was temporarily hit by the Shanghai Stock Exchange once it rose 38.44%.

    Suspension

    It really made some empty investors unanticipated.


    However, even though China's hydropower, which is known as the largest single IPO in the year, has risen 17.11% yesterday, the market has fallen 2.33%, which has already given over half of the recent rebound.

    Some market participants believe that in order to meet the new China's hydropower market, the market is willing to spare no effort to protect its production.

    Due to the sharp fall in the market index, yesterday, except for the 1.29% increase in the shipbuilding sector, all sectors showed a decline in varying degrees, and the securities trust, cement and building materials were all over 4%.

    Decline

    Leading the market.


    Judging from yesterday's disk, despite the fact that there was a strong counter attack, the bulls were not bad at all.

    Particularly noteworthy is that in the late stage, ICBC, the Agricultural Bank, the Construction Bank, the Bank of China and other four major industries to join hands to make a clear pull up to receive small Yang, thereby driving the stock index to end.

    Among them, almost all day before the closing price of the day near the industrial and Commercial Bank of China's industrial and commercial bank, suddenly turned over and jumped, up 0.48%.

    In fact, the trend of the four big banks was almost the same yesterday. At the close, the Bank of agriculture rose 0.38%, the Construction Bank rose 0.22%, and the Bank of China closed up 0.33%.


    Recently, the four big companies have attracted much attention from the market, and their respective controlling shareholders have a great relationship with Huijin. Because Huijin also promised to continue to increase their holdings in the next 12 months, the trend of the four industries is even considered by the professionals to be one of the important wind directions of the future market trend.

    Because of this, the actions of the four major banks have been observed by investors under the magnifying glass.

    In fact, the four big companies have been doing their own business since the big rally in October 12th.

    Disk surface

    There are some "clues" that investors should ponder over carefully.


    The most incredible thing is that the four banks have played together the children's "money box", and "deposit" into one to two cents per day, which makes people have to imagine.

    For example, in October 12th, ICBC's closing price was 4.12 yuan, and the closing prices for 13, 14 and 17 days in October were 4.13 yuan, 4.14 yuan, and 4.15 yuan respectively, but the stock had "saved" one point yesterday, and the closing price has risen to 4.17 yuan.

    It is interesting that the Bank of agriculture is also an excellent match for ICBC.

    In October 12th, the closing price of the Bank of agriculture was 2.58 yuan, while the closing price of 13, 14 and 17 days in October reached 2.59 yuan, 2.60 yuan and 2.61 yuan respectively, but yesterday the stock only "saved" one point and closed at 2.62 yuan.

    The CCB and the Bank of China, though their share price rises are slightly messy, the increase is only within the range of one to two cents.

    In October 12th, the closing price of Construction Bank was 4.59 yuan, and the closing price of 13, 14, 17 and 18 days in October was 4.60 yuan, 4.62 yuan, 4.64 yuan, 4.65 yuan respectively.

    The closing price of Bank of China in October 12th was 2.97 yuan, and the closing prices for 13, 14, 17 and 18 days in October were 2.99 yuan, 3 yuan, 3.01 yuan and 3.02 yuan respectively.

    {page_break}


    Compared with the common situation of the disk paction, the above four disk information is rare.

    Then, how should investors interpret and understand the mystery? Li Jun, an analyst at Zhongyuan securities, believes that the closing price of the four major businesses will rise by one cent compared with the previous trading day. This phenomenon persists in the near future and should attract the attention of investors.

    With the stock market going down and falling, the arbitrage opportunities are not much. But with the rebound of the stock index, the spreads are obviously reset. At the same time, it also brings some arbitrage opportunities to the market, that is, buying at low positions and selling them the next day.

    Yesterday, the four major banks rose late in the rally. From the point of view, the market may still have expectations for Huijin's holdings.

    But from the current point of view, whether Huijin continues to increase its holdings is not important. What matters is how long the game lasts.


    Due to the collective pull up of the four main lines, it occurred in the sensitive time of the first day of the "Big Mac" hydropower listing in China during the year. Therefore, there is another view that this is the support action of Huijin, the national team.

    However, up to now, there is not enough evidence to confirm the above view.

    Of course, if Huijin continues to increase its position in the current valuation stage of bank shares, it is not unreasonable.

    Statistics show that since May this year, the banking sector index has fallen by more than 20%. At present, the average PE of 16 listed banks in 2011 and 2012 dropped to 6.9 times and 5.9 times respectively, and the net market rate (PB) dropped to 1.30 times and 1.25 times respectively. The valuation has been significantly lower than the 2008 financial crisis level, and it is far lower than the average price earnings ratio of all A shares and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stocks, or even lower than that of the international market similar plate index, which has a sufficient margin of safety from a static perspective.


    Tang Yayun, a securities analyst in Northeast China, said that Huijin's holdings of bank shares had proved that the bottom of bank stocks had already appeared.

    Judging from the situation in October, as a result of the sharp decline in September and the easing of monetary policy and the easing of monetary policy, the bank shares will show absolute gains in October, and will win the market. The absolute profit margin will be between 5% and 10%.


    Anshun securities analyst Yang Jianhai also believes that from the banking industry itself, due to the role and contradictions of the industry in the economic adjustment, making the valuation center lack of uplift conditions, but the current small and medium-sized banks in 2011 dynamic PB is about 1.2 times, only from the valuation of downward elasticity is relatively small.

    If there is marginal improvement in liquidity performance in the four quarter, there is a possibility of absolute gains.

    The defensive value and the marginal improvement of liquidity may bring the upward space, which makes the allocation value of bank shares unquestionable.


     
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