21 Days Of Global Stock Market Shock: New Round Of Storm Is Taking Shape

"China's stock market closed for a week is the biggest advantage of the external market."

This is a netizen's laugh on micro-blog's borrowing of the A market during the national day.

Indeed, when we are celebrating the national day, the world is undergoing dramatic changes. The strong shock of the US and European stock markets is just a representation.

We can extend the time dimension to three weeks before and after national day.

Before the holiday, the United States unexpectedly reversed.

When we were shuttling between the various scenic spots on holiday, the occupy Wall Street activity in the US street became more and more intense. Even the international financial "big crocodile" George Soros and President Obama also stood up to respond.

Domestic "Wenzhou boss running road" also continues to occupy the layout of major media.

In the first week after the holiday, the leaders of the party and the state attended a series of important news reports, such as the 100th anniversary congress of the 1911 Revolution, Putin's visit to China, the State Council's policy to rescue small businesses, the announcement of economic data in September, the breakdown of negotiations between Libya and China, and the "2011 year currency exchange rate supervision reform bill", which was passed by the US Senate.

This is a three week full of uncertainty.

Take the lead and move the whole body

In the past three weeks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has an amplitude of 11.73%, the UK's FTSE 100 amplitude is 12.12%, the French CAC amplitude is 20.72%, the German DAX amplitude 21.35%, the Nikkei 225 index amplitude 6.12%, the South Korea Seoul index amplitude 11.74%, the commodity commodity appears the V character form, the domestic A stock breaks down the pre low point, the exchange volume once creates the volume.

Both the external environment and the interior form have undergone intense experience.

We start from the root line of the A share, find the European and American stock market, find the commodity index and find the exchange rate market; we start from the political, economic and even war, step by step into the capital market.

They are a complex network, a complex financial village. The beating of a number can change the direction of the whole market.

The direction of "market chaos"

Last week's A share ups and downs, high and low, low and high, constantly challenging the market's nerves.

When a big Yin line was erected on Tuesday, the market continued to be pessimistic. When suddenly a big line was pulled out on Wednesday, all kinds of news were interpreted as good news.

The market is in a state of illogical afterthought.

Even the big brokerage analysts are constantly changing strategies. According to the big wisdom (14.58, -0.11, -0.75%) data, in September 29th, 9 brokerages, no one saw more, 4 saw flat, 5 looked empty; in October 11th, 9 brokerages were evenly matched, 3 saw more, 3 saw flat, 3 saw empty; and when the stock index rose in October 12th and 13th, 9 companies appeared no more.

On the 7 trading day, the strategy changes so fast.

It is difficult to judge left to right in a chaotic market, not only for a day.

The 21 day of global events is startling: new storms are taking shape. This is China's capital chain crisis.

Financial weekly reporter Jiang Xun / Wen

Because of the reasons for the national day and special issue, we left the capital market for a period of time, and this time is eventful.

This may cause many people to feel free to market and market.

Indeed, new changes have taken place in the ecology inside and outside China. Some big events seem to have disappeared, and they have emerged from another place. They have not fundamentally changed the trajectory of the global great recession, but they have made the world's political and financial structure clearer and pushed China's asset prices to a precipice.

It is dangerous to define a multi-level and changeable financial market.

From the beginning of this period, we have changed the way of narration, commented on the logic and market impact of recent major events in the form of comments, and accepted everything with an open mind.

Events: 1. euro area vote through EFSF

(European financial stability fund) rescue expansion plan

Comment: no one had thought that the EFSF voting would be even worse in the last ring of Slovakia. This is Europe that has been spending a lot of money on the currency.

But at last, the euro zone breathed a sigh of relief.

Since mid September, the gradual clarity of the European debt solution is a foundation for the peripheral anti smoking, but optimism seems far fetched.

According to the agreement reached in July 21st, the euro zone rescue fund will increase from 250 billion euros to 440 billion euros; at the same time, EFSF can directly purchase government bonds and injection banks.

But the problem now is that people are already discussing the 2 trillion euro rescue fund, and no one knows how bad the European banking system is.

So Europe will be in a vicious circle.

First, where does 2 trillion Euro come from?

The European Central Bank is unlikely to adopt large-scale quantitative easing because it is a directional delivery mode, while European countries are divided in the financial sector and the water supply is uneven. Therefore, the European central bank must tighten its belts, which is essentially monetary tightening.

The implementation of the rescue plan also requires the financial constraints of the rescued countries.

A double squeeze will drag the European economy into further recession, and a hole in the sovereign debt will continue to inflame.

Americans are a rogue in finance, but European aristocrats die for their faces. They will pay a heavy price for their faces.

Another important problem is that the US dollar continues to leave Europe.

The European economy continues to decline, and the ECB will soon cut interest rates by the end of October, and the euro's arbitrage value is very low.

Let's look at this phenomenon: in September 15th, the European Central Bank announced that it would take joint action with the Federal Reserve and other central banks to ensure the liquidity of the US dollar in the market.

But since then, commodities backed by US dollars have plummeted, and the euro has also been short.

The red envelope of the 5 central banks has become a cover for escape.

But the euro will not collapse in the short term.

Two days ago, the White House said that French and British leaders and President Obama agreed to take decisive action to solve the European debt crisis in the telephone call. G20 reached a consensus and agreed to launch a plan within 6 weeks.

The early European and American attacks seemed to be replaced by some sort of compromise.

Obviously, this is related to Sarkozy's failure to return to China.

If the US really has led the European debt crisis resolution, China will get closer to the guns.

Event 2: Jobs left the earth.

Comment: people are arguing whether Bill Gate has changed the world or Jobs has changed the world.

Frankly speaking, Gates's revolution is more revolutionary. Jobs's "change" is called reform.

But why are billions of people so sad?

In fact, apple is perhaps the only joyful technological innovation in human life since the new century (14.82, -0.07, -0.47%), and Jobs's death has declared its astonishing unsustainability.

That is to say, what really makes people sad is the slow progress of the world's technology.

Labor productivity stagnates, making the capital gains rate in the real economy so weak that it is lower than the cost of capital.

This has led to a flood of global basic currencies - the US dollar's interest in interlocking arbitrage in global financial markets. This is also the reason why China's private capital, which is represented by Wenzhou, loves money games and finally collapses.

Since the beginning of this century, the US dollar has entered China in the form of foreign exchange to promote manufacturing and urbanization, and has also increased energy and commodities in the Chinese concept. This is a double arbitrage.

The collapse of commodities proves that China's support is lost.

Now, only China is still struggling to support a beautiful bubble.

Event 3: China's capital chain crisis and RMB counter encirclement and suppression

Comment: This is a comprehensive topic.

Since the "eleven", the central bank has released 130 billion yuan liquidity in the open market within two weeks.

In the past four months, the central bank has injected 584 billion yuan of liquidity into the banking system through the open market.

At the same time, the central bank has promised 60 billion re loans to Wenzhou to fight fires.

When the CBRC controls the bank's financial products, controls the real estate trust, and finally controls the acceptance bill with the new reserve policy, it almost strangled the chain of private capital.

A private financial crisis is inevitable. A few months ago, we compared it to "Chinese subprime mortgage".

It has caused the capital chain of China to collapse. From Wenzhou, the Renminbi (many of which are hot money) are escaping from China.

Why do I say this?

A simple example is that there are many foreign enterprises in Wenzhou who have absconded with their donations. They must be pferred out.

In fact, many of Wenzhou's arbitrage funds come from overseas hot money.

In September, RMB deposits increased by 730 billion 300 million and 725 billion 900 million less than a year earlier. Many people think money has gone to the people, but only in China should be in banks (unless they move home).

Combined with the high import innovation in August, hot money (or even) flight should be conclusive.

China's monetary policy is almost paralysed.

Retrenchment, the bubble burst, and because of food problems, CPI is still high, once magnified water will be malignant inflation.

It has become a continued appreciation of the appreciation of the renminbi in June to slow the bubble to disillusionment.

Since September, emerging market currencies have all depreciated against the US dollar, only China continues to appreciate.

In recent years, the Swiss Franc has swallowed the euro, the Japanese yen has depreciated, and the RMB has gone deep into the world, almost standing on the opposite side of the global currency.

The Senate passed the RMB exchange rate reform bill and pushed China to the corner. On the 17 day, Chicago opened the renminbi and encircled the Yuan's bow by Zhang Man.

So who is going to shoot the first shot?

China has no interest rate increase since it entered the stage of easing interest rates. It seems that the alternative route is to set CPI down before releasing water.

This requires China to make a strong short selling of agricultural products (13.21,0.02,0.15%) in the international market.

However, this brings two fatal questions: first, is China's foreign exchange reserves enough to fight this war of attrition?

Second will the United States create a military conflict to stimulate energy prices, thereby further deepening the food crisis?

The 21 day global stock market pattern: the US, Europe and Asia Pacific stock markets have bottomed out, and China is in a panic at rest.

Financial weekly reporter Zhang Jing / Wen

The financial crisis in 2008 turned into the present economic crisis. The sovereign debt problem of European countries was revealed by one country and one country. The ups and downs of A share were also influenced by these overseas factors.

However, in the past three weeks, especially when the A shares closed, how did the global stock market change with the macro environment?

This article will explore this one or two.

October to start weak rebound in U.S. stocks

Let's take a look at the US stock market with the most weathervane in the global financial market.

Judging from the current trend of US stock market, August 8, 2011 is the day when the S & P 500 index broke 1168 points, and the S & P 500 index since then has been surrounding the 1168 points.

Judging from the form of K-line, it almost alternates with the sharp drop and slow rise and large fluctuation.

Since October, the S & P index has hit the bottom 1074 points first, and then it has been rising almost continuously, forming the largest interval increase since the August 8th crash. From the statistics of great wisdom, the S & P 500 index has rebounded since October 4th, and has risen 9.5% in October 13th.

Unlike the A shares, such as the Shanghai Composite Index, the gem index and the small and medium-sized plate index (5888.041,7.59,0.13%), the US stocks share the same trend when they face the same economic crisis. The US stock index trend represented by the S & P 500, the NASDAQ index and the Dow Jones industrial index is all the same.

For the rebound in US stocks since October, CICC said the US stock market had rebounded in the fourth quarter.

CICC believes that if the European debt crisis does not continue to deteriorate rapidly, there will be a number of positive factors to support the US stock market rebound in the fourth quarter, including: the US economy will slow down in the second half of the year, but it will avoid falling into recession; the European debt crisis will be temporarily breather; the Obama administration's economic stimulus plan will boost the market sentiment to a certain extent; the Fed's "Bernanke option" is still effective. On the 21 th of September, the Federal Reserve announced "qualitative easing", which further reduced the yield of long-term treasury bonds by buying long debt and selling short debt, and was reduced to QE2.5 by the market. The expectation of QE3 was launched to the first quarter of 2012, just like a "Bernanke option", and near the end of the year, the peak season of consumption came to support the stock market.

However, these positive factors are relatively short-term. In the long run, the most fundamental US economic growth rate has not improved significantly. The root of the European debt crisis has not been eliminated, it is difficult to promote the long-term rise of US stocks.

CICC also estimates that the S & P index will begin to descend from the first quarter of 2012, and that gold will rise to around us $2500.

European stock markets are too busy.

If the economic growth of the United States is a long-term hidden danger, the sovereign debt crisis of European countries will be more like a time bomb and will not be blown up.

In August 4, 2011, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 500 points by the global spread, although since July 27th, the US stock market began to end up and fell, but the 4 day crash in August still alarmed the global financial market.

In the next week, the US stock market continued to decline, but the European market was even more frightened. The European market, which fell more than 10% a week, was more than one.

After the US lowered its investment rating by S & P, Europe's debt crisis became more urgent, and European stock markets were left unprepared. The volatility of the stock market triggered by the European debt crisis has exceeded the impact of the US stock crisis.

European stock market three big index: French CAC index, UK FTSE 100 index and German DAX index trend also converge.

The FTSE 100 index dropped 640 points, or 11%, from a sharp drop in August 3rd to August 8th on the four trading day.

The French CAC index fell 9.6% in the same period, while the German DAX index fell 8.25%.

But often the plunge is not terrible. Since August 8th, the three major European indices are in a balance.

Especially in the UK, the trend of FTSE 100 is the most stable, continuing the way of US stocks going up and down.

Although Britain does not belong to the eurozone, the invisible European community still makes the stock market in Europe highly coherent.

During the A shares closed season, the rebound of US stocks and European stock markets had a positive impact on each other.

Although the three main indices of the European stock market are not the most serious debt crisis, the financial markets shared by the European community make the stock market difficult for each country.

For the biggest hidden danger of European stock market, from the sovereign debt crisis of Iceland in 2008 to the downgrade of Greece's credit rating by the S & P in 2009, and then to the debt risk exposure of Portugal, Spain and Ireland in 2010, and then to the debt problem of Italy and Spain in 2011, the sovereign debt problem of the whole European country was completely bogged down. The EU's rescue plan failed to fundamentally improve the situation, and every time the congestion had only immediate effect.

The rise in European stock markets during the National Day was mostly due to the short-term effect of the EU's coming again.

For the overindebted European countries, it will fall into a long-term debt sense, and the European stock market is also in the doldrums due to the mountain.

In the case of French CAC, the current 3186 point position is close to the historical low of 2465 in March 2009, lower than that in October 2008, compared with the 6168 high point in 2007, and the current position is also in the aborted position.

This is similar to A shares.

A shares are unique and weak.

Looking closer to the Asia Pacific stock market, although the geographical position of A shares is even closer, the trend of A shares is often independent of other countries' markets.

The US stock market and the European stock market, which were mentioned earlier, had a bottoming rebound in the first half of October, while the Asia Pacific stock market began to rebound in addition to the A shares closed. The major stock market indices in Philippines and Singapore showed a strong rebound of 5 plus Yang.

Relative to the US economic growth and European debt problems, the Asia Pacific stock market has not been more directly affected. Due to the slowdown in global economic growth and the decline in purchasing power of European and American countries as buyers, the Asian Pacific stock market has been more affected.

However, after the national day, the A shares did not show the situation of rising inflation. The impact of the global stock market trend on A shares was not immediate. The A shares are in the bottom of their own right now, and the trend is even weaker under the external pessimistic environment.

Commodity roller coaster: short term Euramerican linkage in the long term emerging market, skyrocketing and plunging, leading A shares surge

Financial weekly reporter Wu Aizhuang / Wen

September 22nd is a "grab" day for commodities.

Gold, crude oil, copper and other futures prices have fallen sharply since then. For three weeks, they have followed the trend of European and American policies to get out of the roller coaster market.

At the same time, China's stock market has been ups and downs due to the impact of commodity price shocks. At the same time, financial, real estate, mining and manufacturing industries are also bogged down.

The peak analysis of commodity prices by financial weekly newspaper found that the structural bull market of commodities is still far from the turning point.

In the long run, the real impact of global commodity prices is emerging countries, including China, rather than Europe and the United States.

The real futures of China's stock market are agricultural products, nonferrous metals, mineral and energy futures, rather than traditional precious metals and metals.

Accompanied by the ups and downs of European and American policies

Global commodity prices are the "sensors" of policy changes in Europe and the United States.

In September 22nd, Bernanke deepened the pessimism of the market in a sentence that "the economy is facing major downside risks". On the same day, not only the two European and American stock indexes fell more than 3% and 5% respectively, but the price of gold fell below the mark of 1600 US dollars / ounce.

The global commodity index CRB dropped by 4%, of which 5301 of the US crude oil fell 5%, while LME copper 5101 fell to 7674 U.S. dollars / ton, or 8%, while the US wheat 1503 fell by 5%.

Commodity prices continued to plummet after two trading days.

Until September 27th, Greece successfully passed the property tax bill, Merkel convinced that Germany will support Greece and other news to the market has injected positive signals, the two cities and commodity prices in Europe and America are briefly callback: New York gold 6202 reported 1655.7 U.S. dollars / ounce, 5301 of US crude oil rose 3%.

But it's only a day.

In September 28th, the EU and German and French leaders once again made the gold price below $1600 / ounce after a major disagreement over the European debt solution.

In September 29th, the good news "the German parliament approved the expansion of the eurozone aid fund scale" brought about two European and American commodity prices.

Over the next one or two weeks, the prices of commodities also closely followed the dynamic rise and fall of "the European Central Bank introduced the $170 billion quantitative easing measures" and "the US employment problem eased slightly".

Commodities will not come easily in winter.

Whether commodities have ushered in the turning point of structural bull market has become the biggest concern of the market.

According to the statistical analysis of financial weekly, there is still a distance between commodities and the inflection point.

Take gold price as an example.

Since 2008, the highest price of New York gold 6202 has been 1925.1 US dollars / ounce, which appeared in September 6, 2011, and the lowest price was 688 US dollars / ounce, which appeared during the financial crisis of 2008.

After the financial crisis, gold price for the first time appeared 1500-1600 U.S. dollars / ounce of the time interval around April this year.

In other words, after the financial crisis, gold prices are basically on the rise.

From the perspective of the economic cycle, even if the current price of gold has plummeted, it is unlikely that it will fall back to the lowest level in history, 688 US dollars / ounce and 1000 dollars.

"Gold and copper are relatively stable in a historical period unless there is a worldwide economic upheaval."

A futures researcher in Guangzhou told reporters.

The situation of crude oil futures since 2008 is slightly different.

During the financial crisis, crude oil fell from the highest price of 139 U.S. dollars / barrel to the lowest price of 49.62 U.S. dollars / barrel. After 2009 and 2010, oil prices basically recovered to seventy or eighty US dollars / barrel interval, which is close to the recent oil price week.

Compared with other asset classes, the crude oil market showed signs of strong prices and continued strong fundamentals.

Professionals expect that there will be no panic drop unless there is a great upheaval like the financial crisis in 2008.

In the short term, the change of the situation in Europe and America is directly related to the price list of commodities, but unless the international situation changes sharply, the "winter" of commodities will not come easily.

In the long run, the strong demand for commodities in China and other emerging countries is the key to maintaining the bull market.

"Industrialization in China's inland areas will continue for some time, so commodity bull markets may continue."

Kong Qingying, managing director of CICC, thinks.

Rodgers, a famous investment guru, has publicly stated that in twentieth Century, 3 commodities Daniel could be seen: 1906-1923, 1933-1953, and 1968-1982 years, with an average bull market lasting more than 17 years.

The latest bull market began in 1999. According to this calculation, the bull market can continue for about 4 years.

Neglected agricultural products, nonferrous metals, minerals and energy

As a raw material for living production, the price changes of commodities affect the nerves of downstream industries, companies and stock markets. This is a linkage mechanism.

Therefore, after the price of gold, copper and other commodities in September 22nd, the global stock market plummeted, and the Shanghai stock index and Shenzhen composite index fell by 2.78% and 3.01% respectively.

From the industry point of view, the 3 major areas affected by raw materials are real estate, mining and manufacturing.

But a person who does not want to be named in the industry believes that, in the long run, futures that really affect the stock market are agricultural products, nonferrous metals, minerals and energy futures.

"Gold appears even as a general equivalent at present. The gold reserve is an indicator of the economic strength of a country. Gold futures represent only 20% of the country's total liquidity, but agricultural futures and other futures accounts for more than 60% of the total output of related countries."

The foregoing said.

In other words, there will be more industries and companies covering agricultural products, nonferrous metals, minerals and energy futures.

Take agricultural futures as an example, the downstream plate directly covers several major plates, such as food plates, agricultural plates and energy.

Similarly, infrastructure and mining always support demand for commodities.

Because demand is relatively stable, prices of these futures are relatively stable.

But if these kinds of futures are skyrocketing and plummeting, there will be strong waves in the entire A stock market.

In a preliminary report, financial weekly reported that "grain is China's oil in the next 10 years".

Rodgers, an investment guru, once joked that "the best thing to do now is to go to Asia to be a farmer".

As a necessities of life, agricultural products are easy to behave as gold and oil are generally strong.

In the current round of commodity slump, the decline in agricultural products is relatively small.

In October 12th, most of the agricultural products hit bottom and rebounded, but the most industrial products still fell.

The price of domestic agricultural products has relatively independent characteristics.

Even in the sharp fall week, the good news of agriculture continued, such as the 12th Five-Year plan of the Nongken economy, and the state raised the minimum purchase price of wheat in 2012.

According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce in September 27th, the price of edible agricultural products, which was monitored mainly from September 15th to September 25th, rose slightly.

Public offering private equity brokerage three party debates A shares in the future: it is better to cut down than to cut meat.

Financial weekly correspondent Ren Jiahe / Wen

The economic situation is blurred. Whether the market is bottomed out is hard to distinguish.

Wang Tao, China's chief economist of UBS Securities, Li Tao, chairman of Guangdong new value investment company, micro-blog fund manager and chief strategist Yang Delong (micro-blog), the three party debates for investors to identify European and American environment, domestic macro policy and A share market trend.

The three party's common view is that in the US and Europe, China's regulatory policies can not be relaxed in the short term, and A shares will not change.

We hope that we can only rely on the central economic work conference at the end of this year. Only by turning the macro policy, can A shares get out of the downward path.

In the short term, domestic macro-control will not relax.

Financial Weekly: the current economic situation is very contradictory. Six months ago, the economic situation was very good. Now many people say that the economy has the possibility of a two dip. What do you think?

UBS Securities Wang Tao: we feel that the next few quarters will significantly slow down, the three quarter GDP may slow down to 9%, the fourth quarter will be about 8%, the first quarter of next year will be less than 8%, this slowdown is mainly due to insufficient external demand and the economic situation in Europe and the United States, so we feel that by the beginning of December or the beginning of next year, the keynote of the central economic work conference may shift.

The tone of the overall macroeconomic policy is likely to ease, and growth will rebound in the two quarter of next year under the influence of policy stimulus.

New value Li Tao: now the whole macro-economic tightening has been going on. There are no signs of loosening. Just like the relaxation of Foshan's housing restriction policy has been halted overnight.

Now the domestic root is macro-control and credit policy tightening, and there is a large number of new shares to expand, the size of non reduction pressure, capital draw blood.

Macro control is very shackled and has a great impact on the market, and there is no demonstration effect of making money. Now many public funds have begun to slump, and after the public offering falls, a new round of decline will come.

Including private-equity and small and medium-sized retail businesses, a lot of stock prices are at a reasonable valuation stage, or even below the end of 2008, which has a better investment value than the end of 2008, but there is no way to win enough market sentiment.

Southern Fund Yang Delong: the current economic situation is the result of the tightening policy of macroeconomic regulation and control for a year.

In the first two years, four trillion investment and 9 trillion and 500 billion credit policies were stimulated, and now the policy has subsided, so the growth rate has declined.

The decline in export growth and demand growth has led to a decline in overall growth. The decline in PPI in the next year will probably be faster, and the decline in PPI will often be accompanied by a decline in corporate profits.

Now the CPI growth rate is 6.1%, although it is declining, but the rate of decline is relatively slow. So I do not think that there will be any tightening policy in the next few months, but the policy will not change rapidly. The decline of CPI and economic growth is not enough to affect the central bank to change the credit policy.

Growth should be the theme of next year. Now the government's policy should be a dilemma. On the one hand, to prevent inflation from tightening the credit crunch, on the other hand, to ensure growth and stimulate the economy, the government can only act now and wait for inflation to fall down and take some directional easing policies.

The European debt crisis has a significant impact on China's exports.

Financial Weekly: what is the latest situation in the European and American markets? What kind of impact will the European debt crisis have on China's economy?

UBS Securities Wang Tao: the United States is also a state of indifference, maintaining the pace of growth in the doldrums, and there is still great uncertainty in Europe. The European debt crisis has now evolved from a simple liquidity crisis to a banking crisis. The European debt crisis has great risks and may drag the European economy into recession. UBS forecasts that the euro area will still achieve a 1% growth next year, but if the European debt crisis is not handled well, it will also blow the confidence of investors in the real economic sector. If it evolves into a credit crisis, it will become a shrinking credit in the entire economic system, so it may cause greater harm to the economy, and the risk of recession can not be ruled out.

New value Li Tao: now the European debt crisis has contributed to the domestic market downlink index.

The root is not in foreign countries, but in China.

In fact, in recent days, foreign countries did not continue to fall.

China's stock market fell second last year, and this year's decline is estimated to be in the top.

In fact, the domestic market is not short of money, the entire market is not short of funds, and the amount of bank deposits is very large. Now the market capitalization ratio of stock market is the lowest in fifteen years. If the absolute value of market value is the biggest, it will be the highest point in comparison with the total market value.

If there is no full circulation, the market is very abundant, but the full circulation will result in a shortage of market funds.

Southern Fund Yang Delong: the economic situation in Europe and the United States mainly affects China's exports.

The recovery of the US economy has exceeded expectations, but the European economy is still relatively low. The EU as China's largest trading partner, the economic downturn still has a great impact on China's exports.

It is better to lie down than to cut meat.

Financial Weekly: A shares remain in the doldrums, how to judge the future trend of A shares.

How should investors operate in this market?

UBS Securities Wang Tao: our department does not look at strategy, but our macro and strategic views are basically the same.

Based on the macroeconomic situation is still not optimistic, UBS policy department also forecast that the stock market will have the last drop, which is also the worst case.

New value Li Tao: now the big blue chip and so on the drop is not big, but compared to the market fell 20%, many stocks have dropped 40%.

So now the big blue chip does not fall or stabilize the market, but the small cap stocks fall a lot.

So now the market index is not instructive.

Now there are not many opportunities to operate. Most of the public funds, private placements or small and medium-sized retail investors are all locked up. The opportunity to operate in the disadvantaged market is hard to grasp now. In addition, if the weak market is covered, if they do not have the courage to cut the meat out, simply lie down and not move.

Because the characteristics of the market is that if the disadvantageous stock market is sold to the strong stocks in the disadvantaged market, then the market will continue to fall, the strong stocks will fall and the losses will be more serious.

Southern Fund Yang Delong: I think A shares are still exploring the bottom line, the central line is still down the channel.

From Huijin's four major holdings, the government intends to save the market, but this is the first move to save the market, and there may be other positive consequences in the future.

We judge that the market will probably see the mid term low in late November and December, and many trends in the fourth quarter are looking for the middle and long term bottom line, which is also the title of our fourth quarter investment strategy.

The two big schools of technology talk about the A share cycle: this rally is more like a pulse, and the bear is hard to say.

Financial weekly reporter Ceng Wenlu / Wen

A shares operate in different cycles. Will 2300 be broken in the short term?

In the long run, when can 3478 points be broken?

Around the operation cycle of A shares, how to determine the position of the current market?

And how to find the coordinates of history?

Interview with two technicians from the financial weekly to locate the current A shares for you from a technical perspective.

Financial Weekly: A shares began to rebound in October 12th, how to treat it?

Mr. mo (Xuan Kai Asset Management Co, investment director, chief strategist): let's take a look at the current situation of several major indexes:

The Shanghai composite index is low, and after the April 18th high point push, it now touches on 120 trading day time sensitive points (13 days), usually two days before and after the node is allowed.

However, we have not seen any deviation from the daily line level. Therefore, the node is still not a turning point.

In terms of historical trend, the most serious structural turning point after the 45 trading days is the occurrence of the heart attack, and the short one is on the 28 trading day.

Therefore, the point of departure here is the main point of observation.

Deep refers to the same heartbeat, but from a structural point of view, the magnitude of the downlink segment and the time is not enough.

The double red parallel line below is about the final goal of the large scale consolidation area after the high point of 09 August, and the time span is still very long. About November 2012, there will be a very important node.

The heartbeat level of the small and medium-sized board is not the same.

From a structural point of view, this position has a strong rebound demand, but it can not be a turning point.

However, the bubbles of newly released stocks are far from being squeezed in the small and medium-sized board group and the gem group. They will be the main driving force for reducing the above two index in the future.

Sentiment (principle weekly columnist): this rebound and the 12 days of short life have profound internal logic of the market.

On the first day after the opening of the festival, the market continued to maintain a weak trend of adjustment. The lowest point was near 2338, which was 1 points different from the pre forecast low point. The stocks fell more or less, and the volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange was less than 40 billion, and the market sentiment was extremely low.

On the technical side, the 30 minute cycle of Shanghai Stock Exchange has gone out of a convergent triangular form since the 2517 high point in September 21st. The 15 minute small cycle structure has come out of a similar convergence structure since the 2387 high point in September 29th. It shows that the adjustment of the small cycle has entered the end, and the market is likely to have a fast rebound structure, which is consistent with the view that the small cycle of the pre judgment period may appear to win the Yang rebound.

After the close of the day, the news came out of Huijin from the two tier market to increase its holdings of four major stocks. At this time, as long as mainstream funds appear a little bit of reflux signs, and with the news or rumor stimulation, it is easy to induce retail investors' impulse to bottom up, forming a short line.

In the short term, the 3 day in the middle of this week is a rare opportunity. But Friday morning is an important time point in my technical system. The short rally is likely to end here.

My prediction is that the important resistance level is near 2454 (the theoretical value should be 2453.19 points). We should pay close attention to it.

Financial Weekly: so what is the nature of this rally?

How should we look at the medium and long term?

Mr. Mo: comprehensive evaluation of the volatility of the index, combined with Huijin similar to the 08 year September 18th announcement of the increase.

Personally, I think this position happens just near the 120 trading day node. This indicates that after a long period of pressure, the market wants a change of external force at both the policy level and the market level.

Although we know that such a change is still a short-term impact on the market, its momentum should not be underestimated.

After that, though the index will still be low, some varieties may have taken the lead.

In the future, Shenzhen's new stock issue and part of the mineral injection theme stocks with no substance will still have a relatively large downward pressure, which should be taken care of in this rebound.

However, in view of the long term strategy of the country's rare earth, the companies with substantial resources and pricing power in the two cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen will be the most attractive targets.

Nonferrous metals are not the same, especially in the coloured commodity producers, if they are involved in hedging traders, they should be avoided.

Sentiment: the rebound here does not change the structure of the big cycle. I have always judged that the stock index will be low again in late October.

In my technical system, the 2651 point is of great significance. I fell short of the strategy on the 2651 day.

The 2651 point in August 2nd was the limit of my calculation. The market did arrive there on that day, so I made a wrong judgement, but within 3 days, it was broken.

After breaking 2651, my defense line collapsed. Technically, there was no strong support above 2000.

In theory, I see 1953 points, time October 31st.

If we look at the K-line, the situation will become clearer and grim.

In the long run, the rebound in 2009 was only half (not half of the 2008). Then the 2009 line was reversed or reversed?

Obviously, the latter is more suitable.

From the midline, this year's eclipse of 2010 will be 2319, and 2009 of the sun's line will be difficult to maintain.

Financial Weekly: how should we grasp the market rhythm and opportunities?

Mr. Mo: This is a pulse market. The amplitude of its upstream segment will not be too large. Later, it will also be accompanied by a strangle of external capital chain breakup.

For ordinary retail investors, it is not a good market position.

Therefore, whether or not to participate can be determined according to the actual situation of individuals and the level of skills and tactics.

Personally, I think this is a good counter attack point.

However, the counterattack disk is only in the area of time unit in the week, and counter attack to reduce the cost operation.

Instead of blindly filling up, consuming cash.

Sentiment: the next wave band high point in February 14th next year, the high point nature here I calculated in 2009.

So, from October 31st to February 14th next year, I think it's a good band opportunity.

The big cycle, 2245 to 998, has been adjusted for 48 months before launching a big market. Now 3478 months have been adjusted for 46 months. According to the time symmetry, it should be adjusted to October.

After the strategic bearish, I will only have a small rebound later, at least my strategy before October 31st.