Analysis Of The Market Performance Of Daphne And Women'S Shoes Enterprises On Saturday

Recently, China is famous.

(1) low growth is in line with expectations.

Based on the company's high inventory squeeze and high cost, we believe that the low growth performance is consistent.

(2) brand stocks and fees have improved slightly.

The company's inventories increased by 37% over the beginning of this year, mainly due to the warehousing of goods in winter.

But on the other hand, the inventory / income indicators are gradually optimized, and the growth rate of inventory ring is also decreasing.

Sales expenses and management expenses increased by 42% and -7%, mainly due to the disclosure of salesperson's labor insurance premiums in management expenses in the same period last year, which was disclosed in the sales expenses, amounting to 20 million 227 thousand and 500 yuan.

(3) in the long run, we believe that women's shoes enterprises are relatively restricted due to their strong dependence on shopping malls, so that the expansion of latecomer firms is relatively limited.

Therefore, if we want to make a breakthrough on the three or four line market on Saturday, we must enhance the profitability of the sub brands. The future lies in the growth of Sophia, Febe Lil and 69 brands.

In the short term, the turning point of Future Ltd performance depends on cost control and inventory digestion.

We maintain company 2011-013 EPS0.35, 0.43, 0.52 yuan, corresponding to current valuation 25 times, temporarily not rating.

Daphne: Recently, the performance of the major shoe companies has been retrogressive. At the same time, the women's footwear industry is on the rise. The growth rate of the same store sales in the third quarter has increased by 23%, and the first three quarters have increased by 19%, up from 17% in the first half of the year, showing that the overall sales growth has accelerated gradually.

Driven by better supply chain management and major brand portfolio, the gross profit margin of the group increased significantly in the first half of this year, rising 4.2 percentage points to 61.2%.

Although the cost of artificial and raw materials and other costs is inevitable, the group successfully raised the core brand product by 3% in the first half of the year, and the group will launch the high-end brand "ALDO" in the mainland, and the gross profit margin is expected to further improve at that time.

Although the distribution point of the group is distributed from the mainland to the six tier cities, sales are concentrated in the second tier to the six tier cities, reflecting a small number of sales outlets in the first tier cities.

With the increase of women's income in the mainland, their spending power has gradually increased. The Group intends to expand its branch coverage, plans to increase 800 stores this year, and now has 461 sales outlets, which will help to further improve its market share.

On the trend, it rose to 8.69 yuan in September 1st, showing a "three not broken" profit and loss pattern. In September 17th, 5.89 yuan rebounded, and yesterday it showed that the "big Yin candle" fell off 50 days and 100 antennas. However, 10 antennas rose to wear 20 antennas, forming a "golden margin". It is a positive step. The fast step random index% K line is higher than the%D line, the mobile convergence index maintains the gap between cattle, the central line trend is maintained well, the 7 yuan level can be taken into account, the rebound resistance is 7.83, and it does not fall through 6.5 yuan.