The "Barometer" Of The Canton Fair Is Not Good, &Nbsp; Light Industrial Textile Is Difficult To Pick Up The "Christmas List".

Yesterday, the third phase of Canton Fair opened in 2011, mainly on textiles and clothing. footwear Office, bags and leisure products, medicine and health care, food products. Stepping into November, western traditional Christmas and New Year holidays are within reach. Over the years, at this time, besides the westerners, there is also a Pearl River Delta manufacturing manufacturer in the ocean -- a large number of Christmas gifts and peripheral orders, which means huge profits.

Because of this, the Canton Fair, one of the main battlefields, is particularly important at this time node. Since this Canton Fair At the beginning, the practice of announces the closing of the spanaction was cancelled, and the general data was released at the closing ceremony. However, judging from the situation provided by third party organizations and some exhibitors, the situation in the first two phases of this year is not optimistic. "Ready to go" The clothing and footwear manufacturers are in a state of uneasy mood.

New customers are weak and frequent customers are afraid.

"This year's order is still less than the last round of the economic crisis in 2008. Compared to 2009, it is only about half. Li Xiangjun, the head of a children's clothing company in Guangzhou, attended the third phase of the Canton Fair, told reporters that the list was basically Christmas decorations at this time of year. "Just like food companies rely on mid autumn moon cakes every year, we pay attention to orders in this period." Then he sighed softly. From the opening of the morning exhibition hall to the departure of the Nandu reporters at noon, there were few customers before Li Xiangjun's booth, let alone the initial order.

He told reporters that the existing orders are basically familiar customers. And because it is a long-term cooperative customer, the account period is usually longer. In this way, he has to face the problem of fluctuating exchange rate. A little profit can be dissipated with the continued appreciation of the renminbi.

Following the sharp rise in the central parity of RMB against the US dollar by 187 basis points yesterday, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar rose by 57 basis points, to 6.3233, to a new high.

"The basic policy of RMB appreciation against the US dollar has not changed." UBS views that although the process is affected by the European debt crisis and the depreciation of the US dollar, the renminbi may fall or fall, but in the long run, this does not affect the main tone of appreciation.

This means that for Li Xiangjun, a new customer who is "weak", mainly depends on the manufacturers who are familiar with the business, the only little profit can be dissipated with the appreciation of the renminbi.

Focus on "critical point"

It is not only a loss, but also a loss. Like 3 years ago, when the economic crisis broke out, thousands of people in Guangdong doing similar business with Li Xiangjun began to face this paradox. Luo Jinwei, who opened jeans factory in Kaiping, is also worried about exchange rate issues, but he is more afraid of production lines and idle labor. Therefore, even if there are longer accounts, he still chooses to take it first.

Fortunately, after encountering the global economic crisis 3 years ago, Luo Jin Wei, who had been relieved of one breath, began to realize the importance of raising the level of production technology, that is, the "industrial upgrading" of the manufacturing industry constantly emphasized in the Pearl River Delta in recent years. In 2009, he spared no expense in upgrading the production line, and began to undertake some large brands of high value-added products, and became a good living in his peers.

Nevertheless, he still compares his current situation to "boiled frog in warm water" - there is always an order, the production line starts as usual, but when the crisis reaches a "critical point", it is likely to completely lose its resistance.

Is the "critical point" there? Actually, from the manufacturer's point of view, they hope that the data of the Canton Fair can give part of the answer. Of course, it is a relatively good answer.

It is worth noting that the current trade fair abolished the current practice of closing the spanaction, that is, by the end of the third period, the official release of the total three session of the trade fair data. This undoubtedly makes the costumes and footwear manufacturers of the three phase of Canton Fair, unable to refer to the spanaction data of other industries.

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The one or two phase is not optimistic, light industry products sales in Europe and the United States have declined.

However, some third party organizations still make statistics and publish some data through their own methods - the situation is not very optimistic.

For example, the first phase of the Canton Fair is mainly based on mechanical and electrical products. China mechanical and electrical chamber of Commerce issued statistics, said the first 3 days of the first day, the cumulative sales of mechanical and electrical products $8 billion 860 million, an increase of 5.2%, an increase of 15% over the same period, accounting for 86.9% of the total turnover during the same period.

The two phase of the exhibition is mainly light industrial products. According to the statistics of China Light Industry Association, the total turnover of the light industry and Commerce Association in the first 3 days was 4 billion 860 million dollars, an increase of 7.1%. over the same period last year. In addition, the current European and American economic weakness has reduced the turnover to Europe and the United States, which has dropped 6.1% to Europe, and has declined by 7.4%. to the US. However, exports to Asian and African countries and regions have increased by 16.3% and 10.2%. respectively. However, the proportion of two regional bases is only a reference.