Cotton Prices Fell 40% &Nbsp For Half A Year, And Cotton Farmers Were Less Than 200 Yuan Per Mu.

Yesterday (October 31st), Zheng cotton futures were fully lowered, compared with the previous trading day, the main contract 1205 down 250 yuan / ton, closed at 20255 yuan / ton, down 1.22%.

Reporters from Shandong Dezhou cotton association was informed that some of the city's cotton prices fell below 4 yuan / Jin.

According to Dezhou cotton association data, last Friday (October 28th), Dezhou seed cotton purchase price was 4 yuan / Jin, and the previous week price was 4.1~4.2 yuan / Jin.

"4 yuan / Jin is actually an offer for enterprises, which deducts the middle profit of Cotton Traders 0.1 yuan / Jin, and the actual paction price of cotton farmers is 3.8~3.9 yuan / Jin."

Ma Junkai, Deputy Secretary General of Dezhou Cotton Association, told reporters.

In the same period last year, the purchase price of seed cotton in Dezhou was 6.2 yuan / Jin.

"The lowest point of cotton prices this year appeared in August, compared with the highest level of more than 31000 yuan / ton in March, a drop of more than 60%, even though it was supported by the 19800 yuan / ton storage price, the current cotton price dropped by about 40% compared with the March high point."

Sun Liwu, an information analyst at Zhuo Chuang.

The profit of cotton growers is expected to be less than 200 yuan / mu.

According to the current cotton price, according to Ma Junkai's calculation, including rent, labor costs, etc., the actual cost price of cotton at present is 1300~1400 yuan / mu. According to the per mu yield of 400 catties, the profit margin of cotton growers is less than 200 yuan per mu. If the output is small, the annual revenue per mu will be even tens of yuan.

According to Ma Junkai analysis, the price ratio between cotton and wheat is 12: 1 to 8: 1. The current wheat price is 1 yuan / Jin, according to the lowest cotton price of 8: 1, the cotton price should be about 8 yuan / kg, but now only 4 yuan up and down, the cotton grain price parity is seriously unbalanced.

"Cotton prices are falling and costs are rising. It is obviously not worthwhile for cotton growers to continue to grow cotton.

In fact, because of the low cotton prices, the situation of farmers has been hurt, and cotton farmers have been reluctant to sell. Some cotton farmers have recently changed their land to grow wheat.

According to the Dezhou Cotton Association survey, in Dezhou area, the original cotton field replanted wheat area has accounted for more than 20% of cotton planting area in 2011.

"This situation is widespread in North Shandong, Hebei and other cotton producing areas."

Ma Junkai said, "

Cotton acquisition is not ideal.

Although the cotton is concentrated in the market, the acquisition of cotton is not ideal.

According to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, from September 8th to October 28th, the total volume of storage and purchase was 96060 tons, and 76.6% was the volume in Xinjiang area.

However, under the influence of the overall environment, cotton prices in Xinjiang have also started to drop recently.

According to the Xinjiang Turpan Area Administration Office, the cotton that had gone up to 4.7 yuan / Jin in the early stage was generally listed at the beginning of September, and the price began to drop. As of October 30th, the current price was 4 yuan / Jin.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system monitoring, in September, the average price of cotton seed purchase in the mainland was 4.21 yuan / Jin, Xinjiang.

At the same time, cotton prices continue to slump, but also increased the cotton farmers' selling mentality.

Sun Liwu said that the overall cotton harvest has been over 70%, but the overall sales volume is less than 30%. "Sales in Xinjiang, Gansu, Hubei and other regions may be better, with Shandong and Hebei as an example, and Huang Huai areas are reluctant to sell."

According to Sun Liwu analysis, the 19800 yuan / ton cotton purchase and storage price determined by the NDRC in March is a reasonable consideration of all links. Even if the profits can not be maximized, the loss of all parties should be minimized.

Sun Liwu said that according to the cost of storage and storage, by next spring, the storage capacity will continue to increase, and some cotton mills will increase procurement, and most of the middle and high grade cotton will be in the hands of the state. The greater the amount of storage and storage, the greater the probability that the cotton market will be stable.

According to the information of China cotton information network, in October 28th, it planned to close and store 35000 tons, with a turnover of 15680 tons, with a turnover ratio of 45%.

The Xinjiang Treasury plan to collect 15800 tons, the actual paction of 11480 tons, the paction ratio of 73%.

Sun Liwu said that at present, the most critical factor is the economic depression in Europe and the United States. The "cake" of China's textile exports has been smaller, and the limited "cake" is still decreasing.

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According to statistics from the General Administration of customs, China imported 253 thousand tons of cotton in September, an increase of 25.9% compared to 52 thousand tons, but in 1~9 months, China imported 1 million 943 thousand tons of cotton, down 9.7% from the same period last year.

Customs data also showed that in September, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to 22 billion 980 million US dollars, up 14.8% over the same period last year, an increase of 11.6 percentage points from the previous month.

Ma Junkai said, "the cost of Chinese textiles has gone up a lot. Since last year, textile orders have been pferred to some low-cost countries in Southeast Asia, which has caused great pressure on China's textile exports, resulting in a substantial reduction in domestic textile orders."