China'S Footwear Industry Is Facing A "Window Period" When Demand Is Small.

Shoes are the most typical labor-intensive export industry in China.

In March this year, the European Union formally cancelled its response to China.

However, more than half a year passed.

Shoes are more like a microcosm. Although there is no so-called "spring tide", it is an indisputable fact that the traditional labor intensive export industry represented by shoes, textiles, bags and so on.

Many enterprises believe that the next ten years will be more like a window period for these industries, or to be swept away by the tide, or to meet difficulties and maintain the competitive advantage of high-end products.

WTO's new ruling is hard to stimulate demand

The Canton Fair was entered into the footwear trade under the background of WTO's ruling that EU anti-dumping measures against China's footwear industry violated WTO rules.

However, Chinese footwear companies beset by trade frictions and trade disputes have not felt much encouragement.

"In order to deal with such trade barriers, enterprises have made difficult adjustments in product mix adjustment.

Although anti-dumping duties are no longer being imposed, it is not so easy for enterprises to return to their original product mix. "

Huang Wanyi, deputy general manager of Zhejiang Dongyi shoes industry Co., Ltd. said, "the market has changed greatly over the past few years."

Huang said that when the EU began to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese shoes a few years ago, it had a great impact on the enterprises, because the affected shoes accounted for about 60% of the total export shoes.

However, the proportion has dropped to below 30%, which is mainly offset by other countries and regions.

The European debt crisis exacerbated the enormous difficulty of market recovery.

Liu Tao, deputy manager of import and export company of Shandong Golden Monkey Group Footwear Co., Ltd., said that the EU market accounted for nearly 30% of the sales volume of the company. But from the past six months and the current Canton Fair, "the customers are still regular customers, and orders are not much better than last year."

Some enterprises believe that the reason why the EU finally gave up anti-dumping is not all because of the WTO ruling, but more importantly, the rising cost has greatly eliminated the competitive advantage of China's ordinary leather shoes.

Liu Tao said that the export of shoes on the surface is still booming this year, but it is mainly achieved by rising prices, and the volume has not increased.

This kind of price increase is not the importer's initiative to raise the price, but the domestic cost factors.

For example, the price of pig skin has been high this year, which directly affects the cost of the enterprise.

Behind the shoes is the objective reality of the increase in the overall price increment of the traditional labor intensive enterprises in China.

The trade data of the first three quarters released by the General Administration of Customs in mid October are realities. The price of labor intensive products such as textiles, clothing, shoes and toys is deducted from price factors. The actual export volume growth is only 2.8%, 3.2% and 0.6% respectively.

"The market is relaxed, but the volume is difficult to go up, because the number of international competitors is strong."

Jiang Jinhua, vice president of textile and clothing exports and Jiangsu High Hope International Group Corporation Limited, said.

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Low end capacity relocation situation can not be ignored

For many market participants, the shoe industry is like a signal for the movement of global labor-intensive industries. The export volume of China's shoes exceeds 8 billion pairs per year, equivalent to producing a pair of shoes for the whole world. A considerable part of the output is completed by large scale or even large scale foreign investment foundry enterprises, and these enterprises have been the "vanguard" of global industrial pfer.

"Before and after 2008, some foundry enterprises did shift. The main purpose is to circumvent the EU's anti-dumping rulings and other international trade frictions and trade barriers.

But things are quite different now.

The relocation and pfer of large scale foundry enterprises is mainly due to the rising prices of domestic production factors, which affect the layout and profitability of these capital markets.

Guo Weiwen, Secretary General of China's anti dumping Federation of leather shoes, said.

Luo Chunyuan, commercial director of Zhejiang Taizhou Shoes Co., Ltd., said that unlike the recent years of rising costs, the price of the shoes in the European and American terminal market has not changed. This also means that manufacturers and traders have been compressing profit margins, which is not a permanent solution.

"We are local enterprises, relocation is not the first consideration, but those multinational enterprises and foreign investment factories are different. They are more motivated by profit and more accustomed to the global pfer of production capacity. Relocation will naturally become their priority."

Luo Chunyuan said.

Nike is an example -- in order to control the cost of manpower, Nike has been relocating its main production base in the past 30 years.

In 2010, Chinese manufacturers have been Nike's largest partners, but after 2010, this "throne" was taken away by Vietnamese shoe factories, and a considerable part of its capacity was pferred to the original PRD Taiwan funded enterprises which were produced locally.

"From the current situation, foreign-funded enterprises, especially large foundries, prefer to choose to move out rather than move inland.

This is closely related to the industrial form.

Such products as shoes, textiles and so on are of large volume and low unit value. The layout of the global industry requires factories to arrange as close as possible to coastal areas so as to facilitate the use of sea pportation.

Therefore, I believe that in the foreseeable future, the middle and low end capacity of these industries will remain the trend of migration to China's neighboring countries and regions and other emerging market countries. "

Textile and garment export large family, Jiangsu Shun Tian Limited by Share Ltd deputy general manager Cao Xiaojian said.

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Top priority: to maintain the "middle end capacity" of labor-intensive industries

When the low end capacity of foreign capital is pferred into a trend, how should China's industries and enterprises respond? Some enterprises choose to migrate through internal migration.

Huang said that Dongyi Shoes Co., Ltd. has established a large industrial park covering 600 mu in Suzhou, Anhui, and will set up 4 production lines in February next year.

"We will pfer some of the low-end shoe types to the mainland, because the cost is relatively low, and the local factories in Wenzhou mainly make our brand shoes."

Huang said.

However, in the view of more enterprises, the competition of low end capacity has not much meaning.

Whether the labor intensive industry's "mid end capacity" will be maintained in the next period of time will be a real test of China's traditional labor-intensive industries.

"We must realize that in terms of low end capacity, we have no advantage over the neighboring countries and regions.

In Europe and the United States, it can only be seen in China five years ago. But now, the manufacture of Vietnam made in Egypt can be seen everywhere.

The labor intensive industry has no way out, just by combining prices and manpower.

Jiang Jinhua said.

As China's employment demand for labor force still exists, giving up labor-intensive industries is a choice that Chinese economy and society can not recognize in a considerable period of time.

Jiang Jinhua said that in the high-end market is difficult to achieve overnight, low-end market competition is weak, the key to the survival of China's labor-intensive industries is to maintain the "advantages of the middle end", and get room for cushion, progress and development.

"Building a brand with certain influence, further strengthening the integrity of the industrial chain and improving the ability to use science and technology is a must for enterprises to turn over."

Jiang Jinhua said.

Luo Chunyuan said that from the present point of view, in the middle end industries, the emerging regions such as Vietnam need to take over at least ten years to replace China's position, because they also need the construction of related facilities. "These ten years are important window periods. Enterprises either seize the opportunity to pform and upgrade as soon as possible, or they will gradually be eliminated by the cruel market.

We do not want to be the former.

Cai Changling of Peak Sport Products Co Limited said that Chinese enterprises should pay attention to brand building if they want to break through. "Now the proportion of PEAK's OEM production is declining, and agents are encouraged to open shop directly in foreign countries.

With efforts, PEAK's international brand influence is also growing, and we are confident that we will rush through this window period.