China's Shoes Are Cautiously Optimistic About Its Exports.

The instability of the world financial market caused by the evolution and impact of the subprime crisis in the US has cast a shadow over the economic growth prospects of the major developed countries in the world. Since the beginning of this year, US import growth has slowed down, but it is quite stable and remains at 3%~4%. Total imports of goods amounted to US $1 trillion and 443 billion 38 million in 1~9 months, up 3.9% over the same period last year. According to the latest statistics released by the US Department of Commerce in November 29th, US imports increased by 4.3% in the three quarter, while 2.7% in the two quarter. This year, I maintained a two digit increase in exports to the United States. According to China Customs statistics, this year, the growth rate of exports to the United States slowed down by quarter. The first quarter growth rate was 20.4%, the two quarter dropped to 15.6%, and the three quarter further dropped to 12.4%. In the first three quarters of this year, China's exports to the United States increased by 12.9%, to 248 billion 175 million US dollars, the first time it exceeded Canada ($235 billion 985 million) and became the largest source of imports in the United States (see Annex). As can be seen from the schedule, China's exports to the US are first of all in terms of electromechanical products, and exports to the US in the first half of this year are growing quite obviously. Electrical and electronic products increased by 22.9%. Traditional product clothing, toys, sports equipment and steel also increased by two digits. The main reason for the small increase in furniture and shoes is that the market share has reached 50% and 70%, and there is little room for growth. It is worth noting that in these areas, the absolute growth of imports by the United States is quite or even entirely from China. Among them, the contribution of electronics and electronics in China is 62%, furniture is 134.1%, woven garments are 267.9%, knitted garments are 95.1%, toys and sports equipment are 97.5%, shoes are 108.5%. This shows that the main problem of my current export to the US is not export slowdown, but trade friction. There is not enough evidence to suggest that the US economy is going to be a big hit. Ironically, in a gloomy forecast of the US economy, in November 29th, the US Department of Commerce's three quarter GDP growth rate increased from 3.9% a month ago to 4.9%. Such a high growth rate is worth studying. The latest figures show that consumer spending rose by 2.7% in the three quarter, a marked increase over the 1.4% quarter of the two quarter. This does not prove that economists' arguments about the subprime crisis's slowing consumption are ironic. In the same period, although residential investment declined, non residential investment increased by 9.4%. Computer and automobile production contributed 0.27 and 0.43 percentage points respectively to GDP growth. Another growth force came from exports, an increase of 18.9% in the three quarter and an increase of 7.5% in the two quarter. The three carriages of consumption, investment and export are also driven at the same time, and overall, the growth is good. It should be noted that the main factor contributing to the GDP increase in the three quarter is the contribution of inventory changes (0.98 percentage points). Excluding this factor, growth was 3.9%; the same caliber increased by 3.6% in the two quarter. This shows that the basis for pessimism so far is open to question. According to the economic survey released by the Federal Reserve in November 29th, economic activity is slowing down from October to early November. Therefore, the fourth quarter growth rate is likely to be less than the two or three quarter. But even to 1%~2%, the annual growth rate can reach 2.5%. It is only less than half a percentage point lower than that in 2006. The latest prediction of the US government is that GDP will grow by 2.7% in 2008. In this way, based on the evidence so far, it is only moderately slow down and can not get the conclusion that the recent economic crisis in the United States is coming. My export growth to the US is not synchronized with the US economic growth. Recent history shows that, just because of the competitive advantage of Chinese products, in the low cycle of the US economic cycle, I can still maintain a certain increase in US exports. In 2001, the US economy increased by 0.8% and imports by 6.4%, while imports from China increased by..2%. In 2002, the economy recovered moderately. In that year, GDP grew by 1.6%, imports increased by 1.7%, and imports from China increased by 28.8%. Recent history also shows that no matter how fast the growth of exports to the United States or the growth rate of imports from the United States, there is no precise linkage with the growth rate of the US economy. From 2001 to 2006, the growth rate of GDP in the US was 0.8%, 1.6%, 2.5%, 3.9%, 3.2% and 2.9% respectively, and the import growth rates were -6.4%, 1.7%, 8.2%, 16.8%, 13.7% and 10.8% respectively. According to a study by the people's Bank of China (PBOC), the US economic growth slowed down by 1 percentage points and the import growth rate will be reduced by 6 percentage points. This means that the comparison between 2006 and 2004 is only a case. It will not apply to the past 6 years, and will not apply to this year. In the month of 1~9 2007, US imports slowed by 6 percentage points over the same period last year, but the average growth rate of GDP in the first three quarters reached..1%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Similarly, from 2001 to 2006, China's exports to the United States increased by 4.2%, 28.8%, 3..3%, 35.2%, 30.4% and 24.9% respectively, and the proportion of GDP growth rate between the two countries could not be calculated. To sum up, in 2007 and 2008, it is entirely possible for us to maintain or exceed US exports to the United States 10%. Of course, we need to keep an eye on changes in the situation and adjust our estimates and Countermeasures at any time. My main problem with the US trade is that the import growth rate is not fast enough. According to the customs statistics of China, 1~10 exports to the US increased by 15.5% in the first three months of this year and 15.9% from the US. This is relatively balanced, but it is still not enough. Export growth is appropriate and import growth is low. According to the statistics of the US Department of Commerce, the US Global trade deficit decreased by 300 million US dollars in September compared with August, to US $65 billion 700 million, but the deficit against China increased from US $22 billion 500 million to US $23 billion 800 million. As a result, in September, I accounted for 36.9% of the global trade deficit in the United States, far exceeding the level of 25%~28% in 1997~2006. This is likely to cause us trade frictions and protectionism to intensify. Therefore, the main problem of China's trade with the US is still that the growth rate of imports is not fast enough, rather than that the export growth rate is not fast enough. The focus of exports is to continue to actively transform the way of development, pursue more high value-added and independent intellectual property products exports, reduce the export of rough crude products, and maintain steady growth on this basis.