Trillion Credit Will Be Launched At The End Of The Year &Nbsp; A Shares Across The Year Market Outbreaks?

At the beginning of November,

Fiscal deposits will exceed or exceed 1 trillion in the first two months of this year.

Help liquidity continue to improve, commercial banks exceed the storage rate is expected to rise

At the beginning of November, the capital side returned to prosperity, which verified the self repairing effect of liquidity during the stable period of policy.

Although there are still some unfavorable factors in the year, the centralized release of fiscal deposits will continue to improve the liquidity of the banking system.

According to CICC estimates, the amount of fiscal deposits will exceed 1 trillion yuan in 11-12 months.

10 at the end of the month, liquidity was very tight. In November, the price of funds was fully callback.

The volatility of short-term domestic gold exposure not only exposes the liquidity is still fragile, but also reflects the effect of liquidity self repair.

10, at the end of the month, capital was tight. From the point of view of the reasons, it came from the superposition of the loan to deposit ratio assessment and the growth of fiscal deposits, which is similar to the situation in July.

However, from the result, whether it is the time span of capital impulse or the upward trend of capital prices, the degree of liquidity tension is far from that of July.

In the situation that the net investment scale is not as large as the reserve requirement of large banks, the sudden loosening of funds at the beginning of November is also a reflection of the current capital side.

It is estimated that the overrun rate of commercial banks reached a low level of 0.8% in the end of August, and it has slowly recovered to about 1.5% by the end of October.

It can be confirmed that the capital market has already passed the most intense time.

Near the end of the year, the release of fiscal deposits will bring a lot of basic money.

Judging from past experience, the central government's deposits are usually larger at the end of the year.

Statistics show that the surplus of the previous September budget exceeded 1 trillion and 200 billion yuan.

Theoretically, if the budget deficit of 700 billion yuan is strictly implemented, the net fiscal expenditure in 10-12 months should reach 1 trillion and 900 billion yuan.

In the past, Financial deposits were generally concentrated at the end of the year. According to CICC, the amount of fiscal deposits in 11-12 months will exceed 1 trillion yuan.

At the beginning of November, after the last time the big bank made up the deposit reserve, the expansion of the quasi base expansion weakened the impact of the capital side.

Even if the amount of foreign exchange and the amount of open market are likely to drop, Financial deposits should also support the continued improvement of liquidity in the banking system.

If future economic downside risks increase, it is not possible to eliminate the possibility of speeding up expenditure.

CICC expects that the overtaking rate may rise significantly since November, and the seven day repo rate is expected to fall back to 3%-3.5%.

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At the end of the year, credit is expected to focus on the new measures to relax or increase the fines.

Following Premier Wen Jiabao's research speech in Tianjin, China began policy fine-tuning in many areas.

This week, a sharp increase in the value added tax and business tax threshold is considered an important measure to support small and micro enterprises.

But have you ever thought that credit policy will also begin to show significant fine-tuning, in which credit easing at the end of the year is likely to become a landmark event.

In September 2008, China unexpectedly cut interest rates and gave birth to a super rebound.

So, what about this time?

Credit is expected to erupt at the end of the year

The fine-tuning of the first shot is the reform of Finance and taxation.

It is reported that the Ministry of Finance decided to raise the threshold of value added tax and business tax this week, and the revised rules will take effect from November 1st.

So how much does this tax reform really affect? According to Guoxin Securities, the new deal has an impact of about 1 billion 500 million yuan on Guangdong's value-added tax, accounting for 0.3% of the total value-added tax revenue.

In the 1 year, the business tax was about 320000000000 yuan, and the initial judgment of the new business tax reduced to 900 million, accounting for 0.27%.

The impact on total tax revenue is negligible, but it is a substantial positive for small and micro enterprises.

Fine tuning is good, but many people seem to want to get rid of this "micro".

At this point, "appropriate credit easing" quietly surfaced.

In fact, there have been reports that some banks have been allowed to relax their credit within reasonable limits on the basis of their regulatory targets.

However, some people have questioned this. If appropriate credit is allowed to be relaxed, then how can a bank that has surpassed the regulatory red line? In this regard, CITIC explains that according to the regulatory policy, eligible commercial banks can raise funds by issuing special financial bonds issued by small and micro enterprises, and at the same time, loans for small and micro enterprises below 5 million yuan will not be included in the scope of loan to deposit ratio supervision.

Guotai Junan macro group pointed out to the daily economic news (micro-blog) that, taking into account the relationship between credit easing and the economy, the experience of the previous two rounds of policy easing showed that the emergence of credit easing after monetary easing corresponded to the bottom up of the economy.

Interestingly, there is a subtle link between Treasury yields and credit.

Guotai Junan macro group introduced that the Treasury bond yield reflects the situation of bank funds, which can be defined as monetary easing.

Credit changes reflect the changes in the real economy.

In 2008, credit easing appeared in November after the decline in the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds in the past 3 months, and the stock market bottomed out in November.

In 2010, the yield of treasury bonds declined significantly from 10 in January, and the credit increased to an increase in July, and the stock market bottomed out in July.

In this year, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has been declining since September 22nd. If the credit easing started in November, the time difference between them was the smallest in the past 3 years.

This means that the stock market will see a trend.

Increase blood pfusion to small and micro enterprises

In addition, blood pfusion to small and micro enterprises is also a fine adjustment direction that can not be ignored.

Looking back on the past month, the tilt of policy towards small and micro enterprises is being promoted step by step.

It is reported that in October 24th, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued a notice to clarify that the financial institutions and small and micro enterprises loan contracts were exempted from stamp duty.

1 days later, the CBRC issued a new financing regulation for the small business financial services of various commercial banks, and the banks that could reach the relevant goals for the growth and increment of small micro enterprises loans could apply for issuing special financial bonds.

The above "special bonds" have been defined by the industry as an innovative measure of directional easing in credit policy.

Xia Yu, director of the Chengdu agricultural business paction department, who interviewed by the daily economic news, said that the move meant that commercial banks could allocate more loans to small and micro enterprises. In the context of the absence of a shift in monetary policy, it is undoubtedly the most important "blood pfusion" for small and micro enterprises.

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Policy warm air continues A shares uplink space still exists.

Analysts believe that in order to boost the domestic economy, good policies will continue to be introduced, A share market is expected to further develop.

Last week, the Shanghai index moved up and broke through the strong pressure position of the 60 - day average, but the Shanghai index came up with resistance in the late week.

Analysts believe that the index continues to go up, close to the above - intensive areas, and the flow of historical plates and short - line profits forms the pressure of the stock index upward.

After active adjustment, the A share market is still worth looking forward to.

Continue to rise solid foundation

For the strong rebound in the current round of market, the market generally believed that mainly from: first, CPI will be lower than the 5% price inflection point confirmation.

Two, release macro policy fine tuning signals.

Three, frequent industrial support policies.

These three reasons have changed the pessimism of the market, stimulated the enthusiasm of investors, and attracted the entry of off court funds.

Analysts said that tightening monetary policy has achieved initial success. Meanwhile, President Hu Jintao has issued a "global imperative" to protect growth in Europe, which means that China's main task has changed from "anti inflation" to "maintaining growth". So directional easing, targeted easing, partial loosely and reducing reserve ratio are also inevitable.

Appropriate easing can ensure the soft landing of China's economy, which is also a great benefit for A shares.

Judging from the current situation, A shares continue to rebound in the market is more solid foundation, uplink space still exists.

Market or deep development

From the recent hot spot, we can see that the sector that benefited from the support of industrial policy has risen strongly. Analysts pointed out that with the gradual introduction of the detailed planning rules and the gradual implementation of supporting policies, the market will be expected to develop further (000001).

First, loose monetary policy is expected to increase.

Last week, the European Central Bank announced a cut in interest rates, after some emerging market countries and some other countries began easing monetary policy.

The new round of global monetary easing has begun.

As for the domestic market, the central bank last week continued to suspend the issuance of 3 - year central bank votes, and the repo was also absent.

The industry expects that the central bank will maintain relatively loose and stable domestic assets, and the high deposit reserve rate currently implemented has the possibility of downward adjustment.

At the same time, the four major loans have been speeded up, and new loans are expected to reach about 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan annually.

Analysts said that when the economic growth rate has slowed down, the central bank's monetary policy is facing an inflection point.

Market confidence in capital continued to grow.

Second, the positive industrial policy rules are promulgated.

From the cultural industry, software industry, environmental protection industry, the Internet and other favorable policies continue to release, Guotai Junan believes that with the release of policies or the birth of a number of industrial support rules promulgated, and is expected to be refined in some areas within the year, to further benefit the industry leading enterprises.

In addition, data showed that PMI was 50.4% in October, ending two consecutive months of recovery.

In order to ensure the overall direction of China's macroeconomic operation, market participants say that preventing economic downturn has become the main keynote, and the policy area is expected to have more obvious structural loosening. At the same time, under the background of steady growth of investment in construction projects, structural relaxation policies aimed at small and medium-sized enterprises, affordable housing construction and other projects to improve people's livelihood will continue.

Temporary adjustment does not interfere with uplink.

Late last week, there was a significant drag on the stock market's upward trend, and investors began to worry about whether the rally would be over.

Analysts said that after the stock index rose continuously, there was no sharp fall, and it was basically not affected by the impact of Greece's announcement of a referendum and MF global bankruptcy.

Generally speaking, many parties still have considerable advantages. This steady upward pattern is conducive to the continued interpretation of the market.

Basically, we should wait for the policy to be implemented.

The solution to the European debt problem is difficult and tortuous. Whether the European Central Bank's interest rate cut can trigger loose monetary policy worldwide needs to be observed.

On the domestic front, President Hu Jintao recently issued a "top priority for the world to protect growth" in Europe. Whether the supporting measures can achieve the purpose remains to be tested.

This week, the CPI data will be released in October. Analysts expect that the stock index will run smoothly before that, and the probability of concussing and sorting the profit taking market will be greater.

In terms of technology, the trend of the bull market has not changed.

Last week, three Shanghai index station on the 60 day moving average, the increase narrowed, the stock market intraday shock intensified, but the strong feature is still there.

The market has strong support at the 2500 point integer pass.

On the EMA system, all short-term average lines show upward divergence, and the 5 day moving average runs on the 60 day moving average. The upward trend of the market keeps good, and the money making effect begins to appear, which is conducive to attracting off court funds.

Although the Shanghai stock index has a consolidation requirement near 2500, analysts pointed out that in terms of the environment, the market is still worth looking forward to.

Of course, the overseas situation and domestic follow-up policy remain the focus of the market.