If We Buy And Store, We Will Get Better.

In the autumn of October, the harvest of the earth is the season for autumn cocoons to be listed. It should also be an exciting season.

The purchase and storage effectively stopped the continuous decline of cocoon silk and achieved a small rebound.

However, with the gradual depletion of the good news, the cocoon filament began to take a long swing. The market continued to oscillate in October. SS12033 dropped 300 thousand integer, and a number of daily average lines and k-lines were intertwined.

To get out of the direction of cocoon silk, we need to find the stone of the mountain again.

The decline of autumn cocoon has become the reason why cocoon station and silk factory rush to rush to collect.

The purchase price of autumn cocoons everywhere is rising rapidly.

However, the complex macroeconomic environment, the low export orders, difficult to sell silk, difficult to sell silk, cocoon silk prices did not rise because of the high price of raw materials, but on the contrary, cocoon silk hanging upside down, and rush to collect high cost raw materials, became cocoon station silk factory wishful thinking.

The reduction of output of cocoon and the high cost of raw materials will not play a significant role in supporting the market.

But conversely, if there is no support for the cost of plateau materials, will the market fall further?

Reduction of production support market inadequate, late autumn cocoon price loosening

Drought this year laid a foreshadow for the fall of cocoon production.

After the spring cocoon is finished, the symptoms of the fall cocoon yield have been revealed.

The reality is the same as the industry's expectations. In October, the national autumn cocoon harvest went into the second half of the year.

The decline of autumn cocoon production in southern Guangxi was serious. By the beginning of 10, the harvest and drying work had come to an end, and the yield reduction was over 50%.

The output of Northern Guangxi has also shrunk, and some silkworm areas in Yunnan and Sichuan have been severely affected by drought, resulting in a large reduction in production. Zhejiang, Jiangsu, has also been affected by early drought and the effects of temperature depression, mulberry disease and silkworm disease, resulting in varying degrees of yield reduction.

Due to the different ways of purchasing silkworm areas in different parts of the country and the market environment, the purchase price of autumn cocoons is also the price of various localities. However, after entering the October, the price of autumn cocoon purchase increased significantly.

At the beginning of the month, the cocoon of southern Guangxi received about 32 yuan / kg, and the middle and Northern Guangxi had soared to 38 yuan / kg.

The purchase price of the cocoon is about 50% higher than that of the summer cocoon. The purchase price of Yunnan generally reaches 35 yuan / kg, and Luliang County reaches 40 yuan / kg.

The plan to reduce the cost of raw materials has not been realized.

Although the cost of cocoon raw materials is higher and higher, the long-term downturn is in the doldrums.

Under the pressure of insufficient funds and expected losses, the purchase price of autumn cocoons was loose at the end of the month.

The purchase price of Yizhou is about 35 yuan per kilogram.

High cost raw materials are not enough to support the market. Has the upstream already begun to compromise?

The macro environment is interwoven with hidden worries.

Affected by the debt crisis in Europe and America, economic recovery in developed economies is weak and residents' consumption intention is not strong.

At the same time, the pressure of RMB appreciation is increasing, and domestic production costs, including raw materials and labor, continue to rise, which restricts the terminal consumption of silk products to a certain extent.

At present, the international market demand growth will slow down, which is not conducive to the export of China's silk products.

With the slow development of domestic demand market and the influence of inflation, silk goods are facing the situation of external demand engine stalling and insufficient domestic demand.

In October, the European debt crisis was complicated and volatile, and profits and losses were intertwined, which greatly damaged market confidence.

The EU summit held in October 23rd touched the hearts of the people, but the EU summit did not provide a package solution to the European debt crisis, and the Greek debt crisis remained unresolved.

Solving the complex European debt crisis is a long bargaining process.

The economic recovery of the developed economies in Europe and the United States is still dragged down by the European debt crisis.

The Conference Board reported in October 25th that the US consumer confidence index fell to 39.8 in October from 46.4 last month, falling to its lowest level in two and a half years.

This year, the consumer confidence index has dropped from around 70 of the beginning of the year to below 40, indicating that American consumers are still pessimistic about the US economy and employment prospects.

The revival of silk export needs to wait.

At present, China's economic growth has declined, and the overseas economic situation is not optimistic. In October 29th, Premier Wen chaired the executive meeting of the State Council, and clearly put forward the policy of "macro adjustment" to "adjust the timing appropriately."

Some banks have been allowed to increase credit appropriately, four new loans have reached 100 billion, and credit has been loosely localized. It is undoubtedly a good news for cocoon silk enterprises that are currently in financial difficulties and are in trouble.

Can domestic demand carry the banner of silk industry development?

In the first half of this year, the price of raw silk continued last year's unilateral trend. It rose to 410 thousand yuan / ton peaked all the way, which greatly affected the stability and continuity of silk export.

Overseas orders received by domestic factories have shrunk.

Because of the high cost of raw materials, the lack of orders, the pressure of RMB appreciation and the small profit of export, many small and medium-sized silk factories have encountered a serious problem of capital turnover and set off a wave of collapse.

Small and medium sized silk factories are the main force to consume medium and low grade raw silk.

According to the silk export enterprises, the export of China's silk fabrics to the India market has dropped by nearly 90% this year.

In the poor export, seriously affecting the cocoon silk market, the industry has turned its eyes to the vast potential market.

The development of the domestic market by the silk industry is already a commonplace problem. The relevant departments have been working hard, but I think the result is very little.

At present, the main role of silk products in the domestic market is silk quilts, and other high-grade silk products such as silk clothing have not formed a market scale.

Silk is sold at a lower price. Raw materials are mostly raw materials such as inferior cocoon, Double Cocoon and so on. It can not consume ordinary raw silk and has no practical significance for cocoon silk market.

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Domestic demand in the short term still can not afford the big rebound of cocoon silk market, at least 5 years is still difficult to dominate cocoon silk market.

The fact that the silk industry relies heavily on exports has not changed substantially. So the trend of cocoon silk market depends on the market trend in Europe and America.

Cocoon silk to warm up the opportunity to retain or not to knock the mountain stone?

Purchasing and storage is an important means to control market, maintain stability and protect enterprises.

In September, the collection and storage of cocoon silk office had achieved certain results, which is certain.

As early as September, before the cocoon silk was sold and stored, the local government of Guangxi was also planning to collect and store the goods.

Guangxi now owns the largest Cocoon Output in the country and has the largest silk reeling scale.

This year's market volatility is most serious than Guangxi's Silk Reeling Enterprises, and then spread to silkworm farmers. The loss of new silkworm silk industry in Guangxi is inevitable. In the face of the severe situation, Guangxi's local government's purchasing and storage is ready to come out.

The reduction of silkworm cocoons this year seems to have changed from legend to reality.

And this year's climate is changeable, the quality of cocoon is relatively poor, and the overall vehicle rate is relatively low, which may reduce the production of raw silk to some extent.

The fixed cost and the fixed output are good news for many parties.

But how to use good news to suppress bad news and kill a blood route? This is a new problem.

In the market, there is a general tendency to buy or sell. In 2009, the cocoon silk market is improving. Silk factories and small and medium sized silk factories have launched a large number of orders, and overseas orders are also more active. Until last year, when the price of cocoon silk went up unilaterally, overseas orders decreased, but there was no interruption.

But at present, whether it is disk or spot market is lifeless, stagnant.

Must silk mills recognize such losses?

At present, the largest reeling capacity in Guangxi, the emerging cocoon and silk industry has an important role in stimulating the development of Guangxi's local economy. The government has also attached great importance to this industry and has made great efforts to support it.

Silk consumption will not completely stagnate. When foreign silk companies are running out of stock, they will surely come back to order.

What we need to do is to maintain market stability and protect business operations.

So is the next national or local government insisting that buying and storing is the rock that knocks the mountain off the low silk market?