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PTA Trapped Inside And Outside Is Hard To Get Back

2011/11/14 15:16:00 9

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Internal And External Difficulties PTA

A week at the end of the week

chemical fiber

It is another tough week for the industry.

polyester

Once again, the deep tone makes it possible.

PTA

(8166192.00,2.41%) the quotation is in jeopardy.

Whether or not we can stick to the current 9000 listed price and the market price of 8000 determine the downside space of the future price.

The turbulence of macro situation and the downturn of downstream consumption are the key factors to suppress the market.

The chain reaction of the European debt crisis is gradually exerting its power. This time, the focus has shifted to Italy. The economy is too big to rescue but not to rescue. It has created a big problem for the recent European leaders.

Combined with the previous outbreak of European debt, we can see a general rule that every crisis has a short and medium term impact on the disk, and the market will have a period of easing after a continuous slump.

Of course, over time, the cumulative effect is beginning to show. When the debt maturity is approaching and the market is repeatedly paralyzed by the repeated statements of countries, there may be a further fall in the market, and the main waves of the market will also appear.

But at least for now, the news in Italy has just been accepted by the market, and the market can still find a momentum to rebound.

Crude oil's recent self imposed act is really hard to explain.

In addition to the continued decline in stocks and the rebound in winter demand, the growing tension in Iran is also an important reason.

The continued strength of crude oil has disrupted the pattern of the chemical industry chain. On the one hand, it has boosted the confidence of the upstream and suppressed the determination of the empty side. On the other hand, the more important point is that it makes the profit of the industrial chain more concentrated upstream.

After a fall in early November, polyester profits slumped to meager profits, and PTA began to enter the ranks of losses.

Profit margin

The best part is the PX link, while the continuous rise of crude oil will squeeze the PX profit. The profit level of the industrial chain will concentrate more upstream, which will make the downstream more pessimistic and passive.

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Experience tells us that when the cost is strong and the demand is weak, the market is more oscillating and accompanied by gradual decline, especially when the cost push is limited and demand is declining.

The market is now in line with this feature.

Cost push has become the last "lifesaving grass" in the upstream hand. Although the chemical fiber market is not strong enough, the upstream attitude is relatively firm. In October, the price of petrochemical settlement has been revealed. Although the market price has dropped to below 8500, but the petrochemical industry has a high profile in October, and the implementation price will be set at 9700.

Some PTA manufacturers are under pressure.

Adjustment strategy

Last week, Xiang Lu and Far East Petrochemical reduced the listing price to 9000, and the upstream gradually began to show signs of loosening. However, it was far from the 8000 mainstream market approved price.

If the price is purchased at 9000, then the downstream polyester enterprises will undoubtedly suffer a total loss.

Because most of the price of silk has been close to 11000 or even below, slicing also hit the threshold of 10000 yuan last Monday. Through the calculation of the profit level, we concluded that the price near 7500 or the loss of the most serious slices will be turned around, but the most worrying thing is that the decline of silk has not yet stopped.

Because of the serious decline in orders, cloth demand is extremely sluggish. Textile post road is not optimistic.

In addition, the new cotton market has been concentrated on the market, and the external cotton has been coming to Hong Kong. In addition, the stocks hoarded by the considerable profit driven by the national day before and after the national day's chemical fiber industry has been aggravating the pessimistic atmosphere of the aftermarket.

At present, there are many actions to reduce or even stop production in the lower reaches of the market. Small bomb factories even start holidays until festivals, and the overall operating rate of polyester drops to 5 to 6 percent. In an interview, some enterprises said when the order was made and when to consider resuming production again, the situation similar to that of 2008 began to appear.

In view of weak demand, we are looking forward to the future.

PTA quotations

Not optimistic.

Back to the disk, PTA is also a leading variety of chemical industry. The most promising drop position should be near the low point in 2010, and the 1201 contract is 7200.

Of course, there is a demand for rebounding in the short term, but when the down channel is in good condition, any rebound is a chance to sell short.