Forecast Of China's Chemical Fiber Market Supply Demand In 2011

If only from the running data, the chemical fiber industry in the first half of this year situation Good, many indicators grew steadily year by year, "the first half of this year is better than the first half of last year" is the consensus of the industry. But judging from this judgement, the chemical fiber industry will continue to improve in the second half of this year, which will greatly deviate from the actual situation. Insiders believe that the situation of chemical fiber industry in the second half of this year is not optimistic. The overall level of the whole year will not be as good as that of last year.

According to the relevant data provided by China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, in 1~5 this year, chemical fiber production maintained a relatively fast growth, the output reached 13 million 302 thousand and 200 tons, an increase of 15.43% over the same period last year. In 1~5 months, the export of chemical fiber increased rapidly, and the export volume reached 1 million 153 thousand and 800 tons, a significant increase of 45.62% over the same period last year. In 1~5 months, the chemical fiber industry realized a total profit of 12 billion 656 million yuan, up 56.9% over the same period last year. In these seemingly gratifying data Behind this, there is a particular reason to be vigilant: since April, the growth of indicators in the chemical fiber industry has declined gradually compared with the previous months. trend In particular, the viscose fiber industry is affected by the sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, and the profits have been depleted, and some enterprises have suffered losses. Some people believe that the recent decline in the growth of the chemical fiber industry may indicate that the turning point of the annual operation has arrived.

The industry's greatest concern for the second half is demand. Judging from the export situation, the export volume of chemical fiber in the first half of this year has increased rapidly, but it is mainly affected by the rise in product prices. The actual export volume growth is relatively slow, indicating that the global economy has not recovered well. Rumors of export tax rebate adjustment also have a great impact on market mentality. These factors still restrict export in the second half of the year. Domestic demand is relatively stable. In the first half of this year, retail sales of social consumer goods increased by about 15% over the same period last year, but the sustained high CPI growth is an important factor. In fact, the rapid rise in unit price and slow or even slow growth in sales volume are still the domestic demand situation faced by the industry in the second half of the year. Coupled with a steady monetary policy and other macroeconomic factors, demand is difficult to thrive in the second half of the year.

The change of cotton prices is still the focus of the chemical fiber industry. Some varieties of chemical fiber and cotton have a substitution relationship. The raw materials of some varieties are related to cotton. The fluctuation of the raw material of cotton will affect the price trend of chemical fiber products to a large extent. This conclusion has been confirmed several times this year.

Overall, the state will continue to work hard to adjust the surplus and control prices in the second half of the year, so it is expected that the industrial policy will be tight and the power supply situation is not optimistic. The price fluctuation of chemical fiber raw materials is strengthened, and the business risk of enterprises is increased. The effective growth of downstream demand is the key to the trend of the chemical fiber market. However, with the release of new capacity, it is unlikely that the price of major products will rise substantially, and the cost of most raw materials will be digested inside the industry. According to the forecast of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, the output of chemical fiber in 2011 is expected to reach 33 million tons, an increase of about 12% over the same period last year, a slight decrease of 5% in imports and an expected import of 850 thousand tons; export volume will continue to increase, with an expected export of 2 million 600 thousand tons, an increase of 35% over the same period last year; the economic efficiency of the industry has declined; the total annual profit is expected to be between 20 billion and 22 billion yuan; and the quality of the operation of the industry may be worse.