Cotton Textile Market Is Weak &Nbsp; What Is The Motive Force?

The severe situation makes cotton textile enterprises face a new round. Survival of the fittest Test, some enterprises that are not strong enough to live up to may not survive this "cold winter". But pressure also brings momentum, and the current predicament shows the urgency of transformation, forcing the real business. change Development mode. From a series of data, we can feel that the market situation and pattern are changing, and the way out for cotton textile enterprises may be homeopathic.

In 2011, China's cotton textile enterprises experienced a sudden change in the market situation. Orders fell sharply, huge inventory pressure, rising labor costs, appreciation of the renminbi, fluctuations in raw material prices and loan interest rates. Factor Superimposed together, many enterprises are in trouble, forced to cut production or even stop production.

On the one hand, the severe situation has made cotton textile enterprises face the challenge of a new round of survival of the fittest. On the other hand, pressure also brings momentum. The current predicament shows the urgency of transformation, forcing enterprises to improve product quality, eliminate backward production capacity and establish a truly differentiated development mode. From a series of data, we can feel that the market situation and pattern are changing, and the way out for cotton textile enterprises may be homeopathic.

Output is still growing, and the structure is changing.

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, over the first three quarters of 2011, China's scale spinning enterprises produced 20 million 950 thousand tons of yarn, an increase of 11.30% compared with the same period last year, of which cotton yarn grew by 9.96% over the same period last year, cotton blended yarn increased by 13.32%, chemical fiber yarn 17.15%, and yarn containing chemical fiber increased more than pure cotton yarn. Weaving enterprises at above scale completed a total of 44 billion 874 million meters of cloth production, an increase of 13.34% over the same period last year.

In the first three quarters, Shandong's output remained the first place in the province's total yarn production, totaling 5 million 410 thousand tons, but it was lower than that of the whole country, only 7%, and the growth rate slowed down. The output of Henan yarn was 3 million 158 thousand tons, up 13.47% from the national average. Zhejiang and Shandong still rank in the forefront of the total output, reaching 10 billion 510 million meters and 9 billion 280 million meters respectively. The output of cloth in Anhui, Jilin and Hubei exceeded 40%.

In October this year, the China Cotton Textile Industry Association surveyed 84 cotton textile enterprises in the country, including the production and marketing of 1~9, and the total capacity of the investigated enterprises (mainly cotton based) was nearly 22 million 300 thousand ingots. Among them, the number of enterprises in Jiangsu and Shandong was nearly half. The survey results showed that the finished product inventory continued to increase due to poor overall sales of cotton textiles. With the stabilization of cotton prices, the proportion of cotton used in cotton textile enterprises has increased slightly, and the selling price of products has dropped below.

Affected by the sharp fluctuations in cotton prices, 1~9 textile raw materials inventory continued to decline year-on-year, but the decline narrowed. Among them, the stock of raw cotton dropped considerably, and the chemical fiber inventory dropped from the down to the next. At the same time, the inventory of finished goods in cotton spinning enterprises has increased by 36.9% over the same period, and the backlog of cotton blended and chemical fiber products is more serious than pure cotton products. Judging from the yarn, cotton yarn stock grew by 32.2% year-on-year, 8.2 percentage points higher than the cumulative increase in 1~8 months, and cotton blended yarn inventories grew by 26% year-on-year, 2.3 percentage points lower than the cumulative increase in 1~8 months. Although the absolute number of purified yarn stocks was not large, the increase was over 90% over the same period. Judging from the cloth, the total volume of pure cotton fabric storage increased by 16.2% over the same period, an increase of 7.2 percentage points lower than that of the 1~8 month. The total storage of cotton blended fabric increased by 52.7% over the same period last year, a decrease of 34.7 percentage points compared with the cumulative increase in 1~8 months, and the inventory of purified fiber cloth increased by 54.2% over the same period last year, an increase of 25.3 percentage points over that of 1~8 month. The yarn output of the investigated enterprises is nearly 2 million 200 thousand tons, and the cloth output is 3 billion 200 million meters. Yarn product YISHION cotton yarn is the main proportion, accounting for 80.7%, a slight increase compared with 1~8 months. The main product is YISHION cotton cloth, with a proportion of 76.1%.

The survey results show that compared with the same period last year, some enterprises' yarn production decreased by 5.7% in the first three quarters, of which pure cotton yarn decreased by 8.4%, cotton blended yarn increased by 14.3%, and purified yarn decreased by 5.4%.

Comment

According to the new statistical method, in the National Bureau of statistics data, the standard of Enterprises above designated size is annual sales income of more than 20 million yuan, and its economic indicators are difficult to reflect the actual operation situation of small and medium-sized enterprises. However, the difficulties faced by the industry can still be seen from the weakness of a series of data and indicators.

The output of yarn containing chemical fiber is higher than that of pure cotton yarn, and it also reflects the impact of higher cotton prices on the structural adjustment of yarn products. Although the cotton ratio has increased slightly in cotton mills in recent years due to the fall in cotton prices, the scope of application of new fibers will continue to expand.

Obvious decline in export trend

According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in October, China's textile and clothing exports were 19 billion 650 million US dollars, up 10.4% over the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down significantly compared with the previous period, which is 14.5% lower than that in September. In September and October, the decline of cotton textiles and clothing was even more prominent.

1~9 cotton textiles and clothing exported to US $66 billion 370 million in the month of 1~9, an increase of 18.03% over the same period last year, the growth rate dropped by 2 percentage points, and the export volume fell by 12.83%. Among them, the total export volume of cotton textiles was 19 billion 828 million US dollars, an increase of 20.28% over the same period, but a decrease of 1.44% compared to the same period. The total export volume of cotton garments was 46 billion 542 million US dollars, up 17.10% from the same period last year, but the ratio decreased by 16.95%. Over the same period, China's imports of cotton textiles and clothing increased by 14.33% over the same period, an increase of 2.06% over the same period. In particular, the imports of cotton garments increased by 50.68% over the same period last year, while the imports of cotton textiles (cotton yarn and cotton fabrics) increased by nearly 6%.

In 1~9 months, in the export market of China's cotton textile products, exports to Mexico, Turkey, ASEAN and Japan grew by more than 30% year-on-year, while exports to the United States decreased by 7.14% compared with the same period last year. In the import market, imports from Macao, the United States, Turkey and the European Union and other countries and regions increased considerably.

1~9 months, China's cotton yarn imports totaled 625 thousand tons, down 23% compared with the same period last year. Cotton yarn exports totaled 315 thousand tons, down 24% compared to the same period last year, but net imports of cotton yarn continued to rise. 1~9 months this year, China's cotton fabric imports totaled 560 million meters, down 10% from the same period last year, a 2.34% increase in the ring ratio, and the total export volume of cotton fabrics was 5 billion 560 million meters, down 3.35% from the same period last year, and the ring ratio decreased by 0.55%.

On the 110th Canton Fair, the prospects for the import demand of Chinese textile and clothing in the European and American markets are fully reflected. Compared with the previous Canton Fair, the number and turnover of the Canton Fair are not inferior, but the total export volume in the US and Europe has dropped by more than 20%. The main features are as follows: first, the turnover in European and American markets is sharply reduced. Buyers from Europe and America increased, but the number of inquiries was more, and the actual turnover decreased by 19% and 24% respectively. Two, the proportion of short and medium bills is high, and the proportion of long and single stocks is still low. The proportion of short and medium order accounts for 88% within 6 months reflects that the international market is expected to be cautious and dare not make longer orders. Three, there is a growth in demand and a decline in non rigid demand.

Comment

The world economy has not yet come out of the shadow of the financial crisis, the sovereign debt crisis continues to deteriorate, and the operating costs of enterprises continue to rise. Export enterprises generally show that their confidence in receiving orders is not strong enough.

More noteworthy is that the data show that the competitiveness of China's cotton products in the international market is declining, and some orders have shifted. The rise of labor costs, appreciation of RMB, fluctuation of raw material prices, and increase of loan interest rates have increased the operating costs of enterprises and affected the international competitiveness of cotton textile enterprises. The adjustment of cotton prices and the adjustment of macro policies such as money and industry have made enterprises more cautious in their orders, and even have to give up long lists and large orders.

Europe and the United States continue to languish, while Mexico, Turkey and ASEAN have growth potential. The rapid rise of labor and production costs has led to a decline in the competitiveness of China's cotton products in the low end market. Actively developing new markets and increasing the added value of export products may be the way out.

Business losses surge, industry confidence is not enough

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011 1~9, China's cotton and chemical fiber textile processing enterprises (including 5 million yuan and above urban and rural fixed assets investment) had invested 121 billion 900 million yuan in real terms, and the total number of new construction projects totaled 2535, representing an increase of less than 1%, indicating that the industry's investment enthusiasm and confidence were insufficient. Over the same period, the number of enterprises in the industry increased sharply, an increase of 39.91% compared with the same period last year, and the increase in the amount of losses. The profit margin also dropped from 5.15% in 1~7 to 4.99%, and the economic efficiency of the industry was reduced, and the quality of operation was not high.

As the textile market was hot last year, cotton textile industry continued to have a good momentum in the first quarter of this year. However, since April, with the continuous decline of prices of textile raw materials such as cotton, the atmosphere of market wait-and-see has become increasingly strong and industry confidence has been frustrated. As cotton prices continued to fall, the enterprises in the rear road did not dare to rush the order, the orders were significantly reduced, the enterprises increased their stock intentions, and the whole industry chain was sluggish.

Entering the new cotton year, because of the state's reserve price, the price of cotton is stable and weak, and the procurement of enterprises is prudent. The price of chemical fiber staple has also dropped sharply, while domestic and foreign market demand has been depressed, and yarn and cloth prices have continued to decline. After entering October, the traditional "golden nine silver ten" rule in the gauze Market was completely broken. As sales are slowing down and market inventory pressure is increasing, cotton textile enterprises generally reduce production capacity and reduce sales. According to the survey, the average sales price of 32 cotton yarn in September was 29280 yuan / ton, which was 5.1% lower than that in August. The price of 16.7% enterprises was flat with that of August, and more than half of the enterprises' prices dropped, falling by 0.36%~10%.

Compared with nine and October, orders for yarn and cloth decreased and prices gradually weakened in November. Over the same period, the price of yarn and cloth in the international market is higher than that in China.

Comment

From the downstream industry performance, domestic and foreign market demand remains low, the future market situation is still not optimistic. In the face of the same market situation, the performance of enterprises shows polarization. For enterprises, we should keep our eyes in mind, actively respond to them, speed up transformation and upgrading according to the actual situation of enterprises, and enhance the ability of enterprises to resist market risks.