PTA&Nbsp; 2012 "Danger" To Find "Machine"

2011 has come to an end. During this year, PTA futures prices continued to fall from high levels. PTA enterprises have entered a period of small profits at the end of the era of profiteering. In 2011, the newly installed PTA plant had 4 million 500 thousand tons. In 2012, the planned capacity was as high as about 11000000 tons. The supply pressure of the market can be imagined. Therefore, in the face of increasing market supply, PTA enterprises can only ensure the cash flow by reducing the operating rate. In the future, the price of PTA will not rise significantly, especially for processing enterprises. profit Will be low, the industry will be very competitive. However, it does not mean that there is no opportunity in the PTA futures market. If the PTA price is weak, there will be a chance to rebound, so investors need to grasp the rhythm of the market from the fundamentals.

Grasp PX cost and promote opportunity

The output of new capacity in the coming year is very large, but it is dispersed in every quarter, especially in the second half of the year. Under normal circumstances, the new plant is difficult to produce immediately after its operation. market Supply, therefore, the actual supply of PTA in the first half of 2012 is difficult to increase substantially. But before the new plant is put into operation, it is necessary for the enterprise to stock up the raw materials ahead of time, so the supply and demand side of PX will attract much attention.

From the end of 2010 to the beginning of 2011, the price of PTA was promoted by PX. Then, in the 7 and August, the failure of PX device caused the market supply and demand to be suddenly tense. At that time, the PTA market was extremely pessimistic, the PTA price unexpectedly rebounded from the low of about 8600 to the level of 10200 yuan / ton, and the price of the downstream polyester products also rose all the way. In 2012, in the face of the commissioning of a large number of new PTA installations, PX's capacity expansion was at a low ebb, and new capacity was limited both in China and elsewhere in Asia. PTA enterprises' stocking up before the new plant will start again will lead to tight supply in the PX market, when the PTA market will launch a cost driven market.

Demand side survival in crisis

Demand for textile and apparel terminals is sluggish. cause The pressure of supply and demand in the PTA market is highlighted. At present, enterprises are still pessimistic about the situation of textile and clothing in the coming year. But the situation of textile and garment industry in the coming year has also been greatly different from that in 2011.

First of all, the recent decline in the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has slowed down the anticipation of the rapid appreciation of the renminbi in the future. Therefore, for the textile and garment enterprises, the pressure of RMB appreciation has weakened. Secondly, the price of textile raw materials has dropped to a lower level and there is little room for further decline. Therefore, prices have gradually stabilized, which is conducive to the pricing and signing of orders for textile garments. The above two points will change the situation that enterprises dare not quote quotations for fear of price fluctuation, and only the short and medium term will be conducive to the export of textile and clothing. Once again, the textile and garment industry is facing a more brutal shuffling period. Many small and medium-sized enterprises stop production in advance, and even a lot of small businesses shut down directly and turn the money into him. Because textile and clothing are labor-intensive enterprises, after the industry shuffle, part of the workforce may be released to ease the pressure on the rapid rise of labor costs, and labor costs will rise in ladder form, and will not continue to rise sharply. Therefore, the survival environment of the textile and garment enterprises in the future will turn better, and positive factors are brewing in the negative demand of the terminal. After a period of depression, the inventory of textile and clothing has also been consumed, and the stock market is bound to be stocked in stages.

Watch out for cotton rise again

In 2011, cotton prices fell from high and low. oscillation Consolidation. The low cotton prices hit the enthusiasm of cotton growers. The Beijing COTLOOK survey released last Thursday showed that in 2012, China's cotton planting area decreased by 9% compared with this year. In addition, the State Reserve opened its unlimited purchase of cotton, resulting in a reduction in the supply of cotton market, and the domestic cotton supply in the coming year is expected to decline. When the price of cotton market is low, there is little room for cotton consumption to continue to decline because of the existence of rigid demand. With the steady growth of the global population, cotton demand is expected to pick up gradually. Therefore, the demand for cotton has shrunk a little, but the supply is expected to decrease. Once cotton prices rise again, it will undoubtedly directly benefit PTA.

To sum up, the price of PTA will be difficult to rise sharply in the coming year under the pressure of huge capacity increase. However, PX may play a role of cost promotion in a timely manner. In addition, the demand will also become better and the price of cotton may rise, which will have a pull effect on PTA. PTA prices in 2012 are expected to be weak, but there may be more investment opportunities.