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PTA: The Latter Will Still Be The Main Shock.

2011/12/19 11:02:00 14

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Weekly market overview

This week, PTA's main contract 1205 showed a first fall and then rose, still in the range of 8000 to 8450 points wide shocks. This week, many bad news and crude oil fell sharply in the peripheral market.

Influence

Under the PTA1205 contract price step down, on Thursday, there was a big jump, but after 8000 points near the resistance, the willingness of the plate upward, a small rebound.

This week, the PTA1205 contract fell 196 points, or 2.34%, to 8194 points. Last week, the total position of PTA decreased by 18012 from 380 thousand to 380 thousand last week.

Weekly market analysis

Bad news continued, crude oil fell sharply

This week, the bad news continued on the macro level, the first is Tuesday, Moodie warned that it will be renewed.

Assessment

European Union member ratings, Fitch questioned whether the EU summit measures could work. Fitch Ratings said last week's summit of euro zone leaders adopted a "gradualist" approach, which means that the crisis will continue at different levels throughout 2012, and investors are worried about the future economy.

On Wednesday, the Fed's interest conference announced that the ultra-low interest rate of 0-0.25% will be maintained until mid 2013. The twist operation was carried out according to the original plan, and the statement of "significant downside risks" existed in the statement.

In addition, Italy's 5 year treasury bond auctions reached 6.47%, the highest in Euro history.

At the meeting on Wednesday, OPEC lifted the overall production limit from 24 million 845 thousand barrels per day to 30 million barrels per day, the first time OPEC has raised the production limit in three weeks.

A lot of bad news made crude oil fall back to below US $95 again. As of Friday, the WTI crude oil futures for January delivery closed at $93.53 / barrel, down 5.88 US dollars from last week, or 5.91%, and Brent crude oil closed at $100.33 / barrel, down 8.29 US dollars or 7.63% last week.

PX weak rebound, PTA decline is limited

This week, PTA was depressed by the slacken of the macro market, the decline of crude oil, and the slow down of polyester factory replenishment. The spot market weakness weakened, and the buyer's quoted price moved down, and the buyer bought the goods on demand.

The main reason for this decline is the end of the phased replenishment of the downstream polyester plant, the weakening of market buying, and the low delivery of buyers to the high price. The second reason is that the international crude oil prices have collapsed and seriously suppressed.

Investment

The EU summit and the central economic work conference are not favorable.

But in the process, the upstream PX price rebounded slightly this week, the price rose slightly, and the cost of PTA was supported, blocking PTA from continuing to explore the trend. The PTA in the week dropped by 150 yuan / ton, and dropped to 8350 yuan / ton from 8500 yuan / ton.

Polyester production and sales again fell, loose prices

PTA prices of polyester products in the lower reaches of the market began to stabilize after two weeks ago after a huge decline of more than 20% years ago, and rebounded slightly. In the first two weeks, due to the reduction of polyester production, overhaul and other plans, together with the phased centralized stocking of the terminal textile industry, the production and sales of polyester products increased, the average production and sales were 200%-300%, and some of the commodities sold more than 500%.

But this is not a long story. Starting from Monday, textile enterprises are still cautious about their future economic worries. They are reluctant to make a lot of stocking. The phased concentrated stocking is at the end of this week, and the production and sale of polyester has fallen back to the doldrums again, and Nissan sales are near 50-80%.

Polyester production and marketing

Fall back

It also suppressed the rebound trend of PTA. Although the polyester manufacturers' stock has dropped to normal level, the price of polyester has stopped rising, and even a slight decline has occurred. The profits of manufacturers are again threatened. This week, the price of polyester staple fiber dropped 70 yuan to 11230 yuan / ton, polyester POY fell 150 yuan to 11900 yuan / ton, polyester DTY dropped 50 yuan to 13400 yuan / ton, polyester FDY dropped 50 yuan to 18400 yuan / ton.

Operation suggestion:

This week, PTA has seen a drop in the spot price as a result of the large number of bad profits and crude oil in the external market. With the end of the end stage of the end textile industry this week, the production and sale of polyester products have dropped down, and the downstream buying of PTA has weakened, and the market has been in a slump.

However, this week, PX prices showed a weak rebound, the cost of PTA support, so that the spot price decline was impeded, PTA spot price fell at 8350 yuan.

Technically, 1205 is still showing a low level of volatility on the weekly line, and has not yet gone out of the trend direction. On the daily line, the 1205 contract fluctuated from 8000 to 8450, with strong support at 8000 points below. It is expected that the latter will still be dominated by concussion.