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Semir Clothing: Casual Wear Business Growth Pressure Gradually Increased

2011/12/20 15:37:00 10

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Business situation in 2011: in the increasingly fierce competition in the industry, the growth pressure of the company on the basis of larger volume increased gradually in 2011, the speed of the extension of the channel has slowed down, and the cost ratio has increased significantly after the listing. We expect that the overall performance of the company's 2011 statements will be lower than the income growth.

Especially in the fourth quarter of this year, affected by warm winter and early spring festival, the company's sales and earnings growth in the four quarter may be further down.

2012 spring and summer orders will be: we expect Semir brand orders to be between 20% and 25%, the unit price rises between 5% and 10%, the overall lack of highlights.

We expect that Barbara brand's revenue growth will be around 45% in 2011, and the order will be about 40% in spring and summer in 2012, of which the unit price growth will be around 10%, which is basically in line with expectations.

Semir brand casual wear business at present

face

The growth pressure has gradually increased, which is also the biggest challenge facing the company's overall growth rate in 2011.

As a leisure brand at the middle level, the company is increasingly feeling the siege from international brands and local low-end brands, coupled with the unsatisfactory inventory and shipment at the terminal level. It shows that the growth challenges of the company's growth in the second half of the year are gradually increasing, and the factors such as the inventory at the terminal level, the financial pressure of the agent business and the warm winter have further exacerbated this trend.

In view of the current situation, the company is also seeking new strategies to adjust, including further enriching product categories to meet the needs of the industry, and further extending the coverage of target groups to obtain a larger and more sustainable growth space.

Our current sales growth rate for Semir brand in 2011 - 2013 is expected to be 21%, 19% and 16% respectively. The balbala brand children's clothing business has maintained its expected rapid growth in 2011 with differentiated brand positioning and first mover advantage.

We expect that in the current small scale base, the children's clothing business in the future will still maintain a relatively high growth rate, and its growth will mainly come from the rapid expansion of the channel (quantity expansion and single store).

The measure of area

Increasing the efficiency of peace and increasing the category.

According to the latest tracking research, our current sales growth of Barbara brand in 2011 - 2013 is expected to be 46%, 41% and 35% respectively, and the speed of channel expansion is 31%, 26% and 21% respectively.

Earnings forecast and investment rating: Based on the above analysis, we mainly lowered the revenue and profit growth expectations of Semir brand, and at the same time adjusted the period cost ratio of the company from 2012 to 2013.

We expect earnings per share in the company from 2011 to 2013 to be 1.84 yuan, 2.36 yuan and 2.92 yuan respectively (originally forecast 1.94 yuan, 2.65 yuan and 3.48 yuan).

Referring to the valuation level of brand clothing enterprises in the same industry, taking into account the different stages of development, competition situation, growth rate and capacity of two sub sectors of adult leisure and children's clothing, taking the earnings per share in 2012 as reference (the proportion of adult leisure and children's clothing profits is 2/3 and 1/3 respectively), they give two times 18 times and 25 times the value of the business respectively.

Price

For 51.9 yuan, the company's rating was downgraded to "overweight".

Investment risk: the impact of domestic macroeconomic fluctuation on clothing consumption, the actual effect of Semir brand strategy improvement and the digestion of goods at terminal channel level are lower than expected.