Garment Industry: Analysis Of Internal And External Environmental Needs In The Three Quarter

(1) international and domestic macroeconomic situation in 2011

At present, the unstable factors in the international economic environment increase significantly, the global financial market is turbulent and fluctuating, and the world economic situation is grim and complicated. The US economy continued to be weak, the sovereign credit rating was lowered, the unemployment rate remained high, the confidence of enterprises and consumers were low, the EU was deeply in the sovereign debt crisis, the economy slowed down sharply, the economy in the three quarter was approaching the edge of recession, Japan's post quake economy gradually recovered, investment and consumption needed to be recovered, but influenced by the economic stagnation in Europe and the United States and the sharp appreciation of the yen, there was still greater uncertainty and weak growth. The inflation pressure of the emerging economies increased, the economic growth slowed down, and the risk of stagflation increased. The world economic recovery has been slowing down and hindered, and downside risks have increased. There is no fundamental impetus for the recovery of market demand, and consumer confidence is decreasing. There is no sign of substantial improvement in the market.

From the domestic point of view, China's economy has maintained a relatively good development momentum, and has also encountered some new problems. The main indicators of the national economy have dropped slightly in the stable and fast growth range, and the economic growth has been obviously changing from the policy stimulus to the independent growth. On the one hand, due to factors such as labor price and land price increase, the pressure of rising price level is increasing. On the other hand, due to tight capital environment and insufficient external demand, small and medium-sized enterprises have increased their operational difficulties.

　 (two) International market The demand is colder, and the volume of garment exports is growing sluggish.

In 2010, the lagging effect of cotton prices on clothing terminals has been revealed. The high price of raw materials, tight supply and the continuous rise of labor costs have accelerated the loss of the price advantage of China's clothing export. At the same time, the development of Southeast Asian competitive countries has accelerated. Over 30% of the simple and low value-added orders have been transferred to China's neighboring countries. In addition, the US, Europe, Japan and other market demand continue to decline, China's clothing exports or enter the downstream channel. In 2011, China's clothing exports showed two characteristics: "weak growth in quantity" and "strong growth in emerging markets".

The volume of exports has declined significantly, and the average price has continued to rise. According to customs statistics, 1-9 months in 2011, China has completed the total. clothing The export of accessories and accessories was 115 billion 235 million dollars and 22 billion 224 million pieces, up 23.26% and 1.22% respectively over the same period. The amount of clothing exports accounted for 60.42% of the textile export volume, an increase of 2.95 percentage points from the first half. In the 1-9 month of 2011, China's garment export grew from quantity driven to value upgrading. The number of garment exports increased by only 1.22% over the same period last year, a decrease of 13 percentage points over the same period in 2010. From the monthly export point of view, the number of exports in July and September decreased by 0.94% and 3% respectively, and the monthly export volume growth dropped. The average unit price increase of exports continued to rise, an increase of 22.35% over the same period last year, an increase of 18.79 percentage points over the same period in 2010, and the price increase in a single month increased by more than 24% in six consecutive months. In September, the price increase in a single month fell slightly, to 17.97% (see chart 1).

Global exports have rebounded across the board, and exports to Latin America and other emerging markets have increased significantly. In 1-9 months, China's exports to all continents increased by two digits. Asia is still the first continent in China's clothing exports, accounting for 34.20% of total exports, down 0.26% from the same period last year. Followed by Europe, an increase of 26.78% over the previous year, accounting for 33.91% of total exports. Third, North America, exports grew by 13.67% year-on-year, accounting for 20.73% of total exports, representing a 1.75% decrease over the same period last year. China's exports to Latin America increased by 55.94%, accounting for 5.45% of total exports, representing an increase of 1.14% over the same period last year. In 1-9 months, China's clothing exports to the EU, the United States, Japan and Hongkong continued to grow, and the export volume increased by 27.67%, 13.68%, 24.16%, 4.26%, respectively. The export volume of these traditional markets was 75 billion 960 million US dollars, accounting for 65.92% of the total clothing exports of the country, an increase of 20.84% over the same period last year, pulling 14.01 percentage points of clothing exports. The total export volume for emerging markets such as Latin America, Africa, ASEAN and Russia is 17 billion 750 million US dollars, accounting for 15.40% of the total garment export volume of the whole country, an increase of 38.30% over the same period last year, pulling 5.26 percentage points of clothing exports, and the growth rate of exports to emerging markets is obviously larger than that of traditional markets.

(three) domestic sales are important drivers of industry development.

Domestic clothing consumption continues to grow steadily, and the demand for quantity is now hidden. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole country in the first three quarters of 2011 totaled 130811 billion yuan, an increase of 17% over the nominal period (11.3% in real terms after deducting price factors), 0.2 percentage points faster than the first half, and 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Among them, the retail sales of Enterprises above Designated Size (unit) amounted to 60165 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5% over the previous year, and the retail sales of clothing commodities increased by 545 billion yuan, an increase of 24.8% over the same period last year, accounting for 9.06% of the total retail sales of Enterprises above designated size. According to the China Business Information Center, the sales volume, quantity and average price of major large-scale retail commercial clothing in China increased by 23.65%, 4.97% and 17.80% respectively over the same period of 1-8. The sales volume of clothing increased by 5.33 percentage points over the same period in 2010. The rise of clothing prices directly led to the increase of clothing consumption.

In order to ease the pressure of rising costs, raise prices, raise prices or meet the ceiling. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the clothing price index rose to 101.3 in 1-9, and the clothing consumer price index rose to 101.6. In September, clothing prices increased by 3.2% in one month. Garment factory prices also hit a record high. In 1-9, clothing manufacturers' factory prices rose by 4.3% over the same period last year, 5.3 percentage points higher than the end of 2010. In September, the producer prices of clothing producers increased by 4.5% in the same month. With the fall of cotton prices and the lowering of brand equity channels, the upward trend of clothing prices is still strong. Clothing companies generally have to accept the price market pressure by increasing prices to ease the cost pressure. According to the statistics from the China Business Information Center on the major retail businesses in China, the sales volume of clothing sales in the two months of the Spring Festival and the May 1 golden week all showed a negative growth. After 3 consecutive months, the clothing sales volume dropped sharply. In August, the sales of clothing increased by only 1.56%, while the average unit price of the products rose by more than 15%. Sales of some categories of products showed negative growth. The biggest decline was leather clothing, trousers and T sweater, namely -18.65%, -13.54% and -6.02% (see Figure two, figure three).

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Two. Supply analysis of garment industry

(1) production situation in the industry

In the first three quarters of 2011, the growth rate of garment output dropped compared with the same period in 2010. According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, 1-9 months ago, enterprises of above scale in China completed 18 billion 324 million garment production, an increase of 9.48% over the same period last year, an increase of 8.76 percentage points lower than that in the same period of 2010. Among them, 9 billion 592 million knitted garments and 8 billion 732 million knitted garments, respectively, increased by 10.71% and 8.15% over the same period in 2010. Although the garment production rate of Enterprises above Designated Size showed a marked downward trend, but still maintained a stable growth range. The small and medium-sized enterprises, which account for 90% of the total number of enterprises, and the big businesses, have many factors, such as high price of raw materials, tight supply and rising labor costs. As a result, the overall scale of production in the whole industry decreased slightly compared with the same period in 2010 (see chart four).

The growth of the central and western regions is strong, and the growth rate of the main production areas has dropped slightly. In the first three quarters, the top five provinces of clothing production in China were still Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Fujian provinces, and the total output of five provinces accounted for 77.50% of the total output of the country. The central region accounted for 13.84%, an increase of 2.90 percentage points over the same period in 2010. Compared with the same period last year, the five eastern provinces grew steadily, an increase of 6.08% over the same period last year. The largest increase was in Shandong Province, reaching 12.33%, the smallest increase being Zhejiang Province, only 0.95%. The growth momentum in the central and western regions was stronger, and the output increased by 38.51% and 28.94% respectively over the same period. In the inland provinces, Henan, Hubei and Anhui all showed good growth momentum, up 75.97%, 62.60% and 35.79% respectively, while the output of clothing in Hebei, Hunan and Shanghai declined in varying degrees.

The link between production and marketing is good, and the growth of output value is slowing down. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011 1-9, the total output value of the garment industry in China (above 20 million yuan and above) was 922 billion 180 million yuan, an increase of 28.75% over the same period last year. The total industrial sales value reached 897 billion 207 million yuan, an increase of 29.03% over the same period last year. The growth rate was 1.24 and 1.19 percentage points slower than the beginning of the year, and the production and marketing rate was 97.54.

(two) investment situation

The number of new construction projects has slowed down. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters of the year, the apparel enterprises above Designated Size actually invested 157 billion 931 million yuan, an increase of 40.53% over the same period last year, an increase of 7.57 percentage points over the end of 2010. The number of construction projects, the number of new projects and the number of completed projects increased by 8.57%, 4.02% and 27.79% respectively. The apparel industry actually completed 32.47% of the total investment in the textile industry, which is basically the same as the end of 2010. From the fourth quarter of last year, the number of new projects in the garment industry has declined dramatically, and industry investment has tightened. Affected by the global economic recovery, domestic and foreign demand is sluggish and industry investment is hard to see.

The investment structure of enterprises has changed little, and the proportion of the three capital companies has decreased significantly. According to the statistics of Enterprises above Designated Size by the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011 1-9, domestic investment in garment industry accounted for 89.63% of the total investment, and the proportion increased by 3 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Private enterprise investment is still the main body of clothing industry investment, accounting for 47.96% of the total investment in the industry, down 0.61 percentage points from the same period last year. Limited by Share Ltd investment increased by 77.95% over the same period last year, accounting for 6.82% of the total investment in the industry, an increase of 1.43 percentage points over the same period last year. The proportion of total investment in the three capital accounts decreased by 3.03 percentage points, and the investment in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased by 21.75% compared to the same period last year. The proportion decreased by 0.83 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and foreign investment decreased by 13.14% compared to the same period last year, the proportion of the investment decreased by 2.20 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the proportion of individual investment was very small, only 1.44%.

Investment in the central and western regions is more active. From the perspective of investment, Jiangsu has the largest investment scale, followed by Jiangxi and Shandong, and Henan and Anhui are fourth, fifth respectively. Investment growth in the central and western regions was significant, with the growth rate reaching 72.31% and 57.88% respectively, significantly higher than the eastern and national average. The proportion of investment in the central and western regions has increased continuously. The investment in the central region has increased by 8.08 percentage points compared to the same period in 2010. The number of construction projects, the number of new projects and the number of completed projects increased by 22.46%, 16.35% and 42.08% respectively over the same period last year. Investment in the western region accounted for 5.65% of the total investment in the country, an increase of 0.62 percentage points over the same period in 2010.

Three, the quality of the economic operation of the industry

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011 1-9, there were 10305 enterprises in the garment industry above the scale (the annual main business income was 20 million yuan and above), the total main business income was 876 billion 280 million yuan, up 30.13% over the same period last year, and the total profit was 48 billion 2 million yuan, an increase of 40.11% over the same period. In the 1-9 month, 1327 enterprises were losing money, with a loss of 12.88%, narrowing by 2.06 percentage points from 1-2 months earlier, and the deficit of loss making enterprises increased 20.35% over the same period last year, an increase of 1.93 percentage points over the beginning of the year. The number of employees reached 3 million 406 thousand and 300, an increase of 53 thousand and 300 over the first 1-2 months, an increase of 7.10% over the same period last year.

Industry profits increased substantially and overall efficiency improved. According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, in 2011 1-9, the total industrial output value, main business income and total profit of garment enterprises above Designated Size reached a high growth rate of 28.75%, 30.13% and 40.11% respectively. The average gross profit margin and profit rate of the industry reached 15.52% and 5.48% respectively, which increased by 2.32% and 7.67% respectively over the same period last year. The total assets contribution rate and net assets yield rate increased by 8.56% and 9.42% respectively over the same period last year, while the proportion of three fees was three, which was lower than that of the same period last year. The cost control ability of enterprises is enhanced and profitability improved further. However, due to factors such as rising cost of capital and tighter funds, the growth rate of total profit has slowed down compared with the first half of the year when the main business income of the industry increased slowly.

At the same time, the efficiency and efficiency of "man" has been greatly improved. According to statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the number of employees above designated size increased by 7.10% in the 1-9 months of 2011.