Medium And Long Term Development Prospects Of Brand Clothing In 2012 Deserve To Be Valued.

The price increase is the main factor, and the industry is showing a trend of growth before and after growth.

The acceleration of inflation from the second half of 2010 to the three quarter of 2011 has significantly affected the operation of the industry in 2011. It shows that the overall price level of the industry has increased significantly in a short period of time, and the industry's economic efficiency, exports and domestic sales have continued to rise. However, the cumulative effect of the rapid rise in prices and the slowdown in domestic and foreign industries have led to the overall sales volume being inhibited. The sales growth of both the export and domestic sales is relatively small.

(1) first of all, the Chinese market itself has become one of the most attractive clothing and consumer markets in the world.

(2) the local brand has accumulated rich experience and lessons in the past 15 to 20 years and has accumulated rich experience and lessons in the area of brand operation and channel management. The outstanding enterprises represented by the listed companies have embarked on the right track.

(3) with the rise of China's national strength and the improvement of its cultural identity, the Chinese cultural elements in the field of clothing consumption in the world are also increasing and recognized. Moreover, a good platform for capital market has laid a good foundation for building the local brand.

We think that considering the growth speed, expansion space, competition situation, market concentration and viscosity of the industry, we should consider the following industries: outdoor industry, home textiles, children's wear, business casual, high-end women's wear, fashion casual, women's shoes, men's formal clothes and sportswear.

By examining the retail performance of brand clothing in the last round of economic adjustment (2008 - 2009), we found that the consumption volatility of brand clothing is obviously less than that of the economic growth rate, and the economic recovery is earlier than the economic recovery. Therefore, the adjustment time of the whole industry's consumption growth rate is significantly smaller than that of the downward adjustment of the economy.

From the perspective of retail sales, the fluctuation of economy and inflation has a certain impact on the retail sales of the brand clothing industry, especially when inflation is deflated. The overall negative impact is more obvious. In general, in addition to the fluctuation of Spring Festival factors in the 1/2 months of the year, the growth of retail brands and retail sales in recent years are 20% and 10% respectively.

In terms of inflation and downturns, men's suits, women's wear, children's wear and jackets have maintained a good resilience.

Investment strategy of textile and garment industry in 2012

We maintain a "neutral" rating on the industry as a whole, but we are still optimistic about the brand clothing industry (the ordering system basically locks the brand listed companies' performance in 2012), and the industry valuation is also close to the historical low.

Under the expectation of downward inflation and economic slowdown in 2012, we propose to choose the outdoor industry, business leisure, home textile industry and high-end high-end women's clothing industry with higher performance. The relevant companies recommend nine herdmen, seven wolves, Luo Lai home textiles, fuanna, Pathfinder, annunciation bird and Langer group.

The impact of 2011 warm winter and Spring Festival advance on the accumulation of terminal stock and sales in 2012, the cumulative impact of real estate regulation on the consumption of home textile industry in 2012.