China'S Consumer Market Is Slowly Improving.
Nowadays, China is facing some adjustment pressure in its export and investment. Consumption is particularly important.
But the slow pace of the domestic demand market is always catching the hearts of the whole nation.
Speaking at the economic monthly talk held by the China International Economic Exchange Center, the chief economic officer of the National Information Center told the "China made economic news" reporter that at present, the trend of residents' consumption upgrading in China has been very obvious. The high housing prices that restrict our consumption may also have a turning point, and the potential of consumption will gradually be played out.
Fan Jianping said, compared with the previous two years, the actual situation in 2011.
consumption
Although the increase in the amount (after deducting price factors) has dropped somewhat, the drop is partly caused by the withdrawal of car stimulus policies and the drop in the sales growth of automobiles.
Excluding this effect, the growth of total retail sales of other non consumer goods is not significantly different from that of the previous two years.
The overall environment of China's consumer market is slowly improving.
On the one hand, the consumption rate of residents in China is relatively low.
Theoretically speaking, the consumption rate of any country in the process of industrialization is U - shaped. The rate of investment is inverted U - shaped. There is no big difference between the big trend and the international trend.
But China is much bigger than the international level.
With China
Industry
Gradually mature, China's investment rate may start gradually.
Stable
The consumption rate has gradually stabilized, and the historical condition that one is no longer rising and one is no longer declining has begun to mature gradually.
From this perspective, there is still much room for China to expand the consumption of residents in the future and even slowly increase the consumption rate.
On the other hand, the consumption of urban residents in China suffered from "blocking" of high housing prices in the past few years.
The process of improving the living environment of urban residents will indeed have a great effect on consumption, but the price of housing will occupy too much consumption capacity of urban residents, and other consumption improvements will be affected.
Now, with the effectiveness of real estate regulation and control, if housing prices can be reasonably restored and stabilize at a new equilibrium point, the consumption potential other than urban housing can gradually be realized.
At the same time, the trend of consumption upgrading in China is still very obvious.
The confidence index of monthly bank card consumption announced by China UnionPay shows that the consumer confidence index of our bank cards has increased continuously in the past 6 months. One of the most obvious characteristics is that the growth rate of consumer necessities consumption in credit card consumption has declined, but the proportion of non life necessities in shops has increased significantly.
"This reflects a good trend in the upgrading of consumption structure in China."
Fan Jianping said.
However, we must not lose sight of the fact that although there is great potential for consumption in China, rapid expansion is not easy.
The reason is that the share of residents' consumption in the whole national income is too low.
Fan Jianping suggested that the next step to expand the consumption of our country should start with the following aspects: first, we must unswervingly adjust and control the real estate and promote the reasonable return of housing prices.
Housing prices are too high, so that many people in the city still feel that they are middle class. They feel that they have become poor and middle peasants in front of high housing prices. Only when housing prices are reasonably regressive, can they be stabilized at a new equilibrium level, so it is possible for China to really increase the proportion of middle-income people.
Second, China should further improve the structural tax reduction policy.
Increase the share of workers' income in the whole income distribution.
China's tax structure is mainly based on indirect tax. The real tax burden of our residents is not on the direct tax of personal income tax, but the tax burden of residents is more manifested in the implicit tax in the process of consumption.
China should also gradually reduce the proportion of indirect taxes and increase the proportion of direct taxation.
For example, consumption tax and value-added tax.
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