2011, Chemical Fiber Falls On The Head.
In 2011,
chemical fiber
Market ups and downs.
The decision to market is no longer a boost of raw materials, but a continuing downturn in demand.
In 2011,
Chemical fiber industry
The most critical constraint is not the boost of raw materials, but the continuing downturn in demand.
As the terminal manufacturing start-up rate fell sharply, the demand for raw materials was reduced, and the market participants were generally empty.
Coupled with the severe shrinkage of foreign trade orders, the manufacturers have not been able to ship well and the stock is overloaded.
Specifically, the chemical fiber industry in 2011 has different performance chains.
market
Each sub industry chain carries on inventory.
Polyester industry chain closer to downstream
The price trend of polyester industry chain basically showed a downward trend in 2011.
In terms of raw material PTA, the spot market trend can be summed up as four stages: concussion, uplink, decline, rebound and concussion.
There were two high points in the whole year.
In the middle of the first half of February, the market price was as high as 11800 yuan / ton, and another high point appeared in the second half of September. It was a rebound high after a wave of falling prices, and the price was 10500 yuan ~10600 yuan / ton.
Polyester polyester side: polyester chip market in 2011 showed a trend of pre development.
Market prices reached 13675 yuan / ton in the first half of 3, the highest level of the year, and the market's attention has also been raised.
However, with the decline of chemical fiber market and the continuous downturn of downstream demand, the overall market climate of polyester has dropped.
Judging from the current situation, polyester chip market is still determined by raw material price support and downstream polyester demand rebound.
Polyester: in 2011, the price of polyester staple fiber fluctuated significantly, and the market was weak.
Looking at the trend of polyester staple fiber prices in 2011, it can be divided into three stages.
The first stage is from January to April, and the prices of products will rise before they are suppressed, and prices will be high and volatile.
Polyester staple once rose to 15150 yuan / ton in mid February.
The second stage is in 5-8 months. Due to the pressure of power supply and profit, the demand for downstream yarn business is still depressed. The market of pure polyester yarn is low, and the price center of gravity falls.
The 9-11 month is the third stage.
The stability of the cotton market is a boost to polyester staple fiber, plus people's better expectation of the terminal textile peak season of "golden nine silver ten". The domestic polyester staple fiber market has begun to show a sharp rise in the market, and the mainstream talks between Jiangsu and Zhejiang have gone up to 14000 yuan / ton.
Entering the October, the peak season of traditional textile consumption has not come yet, and the price of polyester products has been declining due to weak demand.
Polyester yarn business production and sales rate dropped to 40%~60% level.
Polyester: in 2011, the polyester filament market showed more new capacity, higher price of polyester filament, lower demand in the lower reaches, sharp decrease in demand in the fourth quarter and upside down in the price and cost of polyester filament products.
The polyester filament Market in 2011 can be roughly divided into three stages.
The first stage is from the beginning of July to this time period, which corresponds to the high price of polyester filament.
The second stage is about two months from the end of 7 to the middle of September, which corresponds to the demand for the downstream demand.
The third stage is from mid September to the end of November, corresponding to downstream demand reduction and price cost upside down characteristics.
At present, the filament price rebounded 1000 yuan / ton, there was a concussion.
On the whole, the raw material and downstream market of polyester industry chain gradually differentiated in 2011 and gradually moved closer to the downstream market.
It is expected that the market will continue this trend in 2012, and the downstream market will be the core of the whole industry chain.
Acrylic fiber industry chain rises first and then falls.
Acrylonitrile Market: in mid 1-3 2011, the overall trend of domestic acrylonitrile market steadily increased.
Driven by the strong price of the external market, the mainstream market in the domestic market is strong and manufacturers are looking up.
The maximum price of the port can reach 21300 yuan / ton.
From the end of March to the middle of May, the domestic market of acrylonitrile dropped slightly.
The pressure of the increase in the cost of the external import market has flooded the East China market with a large number of domestic products.
By the end of May, domestic acrylonitrile spot price fell to 18500 yuan / ton.
From late May to mid July, the domestic acrylonitrile market rose second times, but the increase was limited.
From mid July to early November, the market of acrylonitrile in China showed a sharp end. As the demand for the downstream market was slack, the market was down again.
From the point of view of supply and demand, domestic manufacturers started to work at high levels. Apart from routine maintenance of some devices, the other suppliers of spot supplies were running at full capacity.
However, the demand for the downstream market is weak, and some manufacturers have implemented the policy of listing insurance. Although the market has slowed down, it has also blurred the actual paction price, and the industry has taken a wait-and-see attitude.
There are not many replenish ships in the port market, but because of the high cost of spot goods, the enquiry atmosphere is generally limited and the paction is limited.
The spot price of the external market continued to decline and the raw material propylene market plummeted.
Downstream ABS, acrylamide raw materials procurement is still slow, the volume is limited, the market discussion atmosphere is light, the market generally small single deal.
Downstream acrylic fiber Market: in 2011, the overall trend of domestic acrylic fiber showed a trend of first rise and then fall.
Since the beginning of February, the price of acrylonitrile in cotton and raw materials has risen sharply. The price of acrylic fiber plant has been rising continuously, and the acrylic fiber staple has reached a high point of 25700 yuan / ton, and the acrylic top has reached 26800 yuan / ton.
After nearly 4 months of finishing, the downstream manufacturers and sellers were overwhelmed, resulting in the pressure reduction of the acrylic manufacturers and the beginning of a gradual callback.
The acrylic fiber market is also deeply tired when raw acrylonitrile is constantly being explored.
In December, domestic acrylic fiber fell to a low of 18400 yuan / ton in 2011, and acrylic wool fell to a low of 19500 yuan per ton.
From January to December, the price of staple fiber and wool top in domestic acrylic fiber market dropped by 5200~5400 yuan / ton, the decline was 22.7% and 21.1% respectively; and from April to December, the price of acrylic staple and wool fell by more than 7300 yuan / ton, or 28.4% and 27.2% respectively.
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Ups and downs of nylon industry chain
Caprolactam and nylon slicing market fluctuated more broadly in 2011, showing an English letter "M" trend.
The first quarter prices climbed to the highest level in history, and the price shocks declined in the two quarter. However, in the three quarter, the inflection point of the market was winding up to a high level.
It didn't last long. In the four quarter, the market was weak, and then prices continued to fall.
First quarter: shortage of supply and soaring prices.
In 1-2, the international oil price was above 90 USD / barrel, and the price of raw benzene increased sharply.
Both the cost and the confidence level give the operator some backing support. In addition, the maintenance of Nanjing Eastern DSM and Taiwan CPDC caprolactam unit makes the supply of domestic and foreign market more tense, and the inflow of foreign goods is limited, and the downstream demand is increasing, which drives the price of CPL to continue to rise.
In March 11th, the outbreak of the 9 magnitude earthquake in Japan aggravated the shortage of supply. The market quotation was raised to the highest price of 2011 yuan in the year of 28800, ~29000 yuan / ton.
The two quarter: aggregate start up fell, demand dropped CPL price.
Caprolactam market began to decline after a small stalemate, the overall decline is relatively large, the monthly decline of 5.6%.
The state's macroeconomic regulation and control policy is tight, and the reserve requirement ratio has been raised again in May, making the downstream factories "lack of money" serious.
At the same time, the cumulative accumulation effect caused by adverse factors such as rising labor costs and RMB appreciation has great impact on enterprises.
The number of days in the downstream slicing factory increased to about half a month, and the cord fabric and conventional spinning slicing factories stopped working or greatly reduced the load operation. The operation started at about 60%, which seriously affected the market demand for CPL.
The CPL market talks about the price hovering between 27200~27500 yuan / ton.
The three quarter: after the concussion, it will stop and rebound.
Due to the sharp decline in the operating rate of Nanjing Dongfang plant, the inventory of raw materials has continued to decline, and the supply of goods in the field has sharply decreased.
Sinopec also raised the price of guidance at this time, and the market began to show signs of rise.
The price rose to the beginning of September, and the price of bulk products weakened and market confidence declined.
Combined with domestic inflation, local debt and RMB appreciation, the slicing market has been declining.
The price dropped from 30000 yuan / ton to 25000 yuan / ton.
Slicing manufacturers' operating rate also dropped from 80% to 50% to some extent, and even some manufacturers chose to stop and overhaul, which affected the price of CPL market gradually declining.
Fourth quarter: European debt crisis spreads and prices continue to fall.
The Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays meet at this stage, but the downstream market has not been stocked as usual before the festival.
In November, the continued spread of the European debt crisis brought enormous pressure to the global financial market, and the market panic was aggravated.
Up to now, caprolactam market offer is near 21000 yuan / ton, compared with the highest price of 29000 yuan / ton this year, the price dropped by 8000 yuan / ton, or 28%.
Slicing price is 22800 yuan / ton, compared with the highest point of this year 30000 yuan / ton, or about 32%.
The difference between slicing and CPL is about 1800 yuan / ton, and the profit of slicing manufacturers has been exhausted.
After the baptism of 2011, the market of chemical fibre will enter a more mature and steady development in 2012.
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