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Textile Raw Materials Market: Cautious About Economy And Industry Cycle

2012/1/18 9:10:00 36

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Textile Raw Materials Market Industry Polyester

Until the four quarter of 2011, textile raw materials

market

Go into a deteriorating "dead end".

In addition to Zheng cotton futures contract rose slightly 0.85%, the rest of the whole line fell, about 60% down more than 10%.

Among them, viscose staple fiber, acrylic fiber and nylon were the top three, and the fourth quarter decreased by 19.70%, 17.67% and 17.07% respectively.

Led by viscose staple, the last wave of rebound in the three quarter of 2011 led to a sharp decline. The mainstream price dropped from 19500 yuan / ton to 20000 yuan / ton to 15500 yuan / ton to 16000 yuan / ton, and the decline was more intense than that when it first rose.

Careful analysis is not difficult to find that many varieties have such a bitter "frostbite", mainly due to

Economics

Cycle sum

industry

The complex interlacing of cycles.

Last year, under the stimulus of "ten years without",

Polyester fiber

The industry of viscose, spandex, nylon and so on is facing wave after wave of expansion. Almost every chemical fiber enterprise has or is preparing for new projects.

According to statistics, in 2011 1~11, the output of chemical fiber exceeded 30 million 740 thousand tons, an increase of 14.88% over the same period last year.

However, this year, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the United States has deteriorated frequently. The problem of inflation in emerging economies is prominent. The continuous tightening of the central bank policy and the slowdown in domestic economy have led to sluggish demand for downstream factories, and export enterprises have been tortured by the main force of China's textile and garment industry.

Since last June, the growth rate of China's textile and clothing exports has been decreasing month by month.

According to the latest statistics of the customs, the export textile yarn and fabric of US $8 billion 301 million, export clothing and clothing accessories 13 billion 442 million US dollars in December 2011, increased by 3.32%, 9.28% compared to November, and the export growth of textiles and clothing fell to single digit.

In the case of "downstream demand is not up to volume and new capacity is ready to go", the market is in a predicament of relative surplus supply, and the profit level keeps dropping down to the cost line, and some varieties are even at a loss.

The domestic market is also not optimistic. The growth of domestic clothing and footwear category domestic sales has slowed down significantly after September.

According to the latest statistics from the National Bureau of statistics, CPI rose by 4.1% in December 2011, down 0.1 percentage points from November, and PPI rose by 1.7% compared with November, down 1 percentage points compared with November.

Among them, the low CPI price index has brought some support to the market. However, the decline of PPI price index has significantly increased market anxiety, which indicates that demand is still weak, and the profitability of enterprises is still being strangled.

In 2011, we saw the ups and downs of the market and the mistakes made by too many empiricism.

In 2012, a slowdown in demand or a slowdown in demand caused by the slowdown in the global economy will still suppress commodity markets for a period of time.

The textile raw material market is still full of uncertainties. The capacity of those enterprises with too much capacity and a dim market will be reduced, and the number of enterprises will be increased.