Cui Yu: Total Inventory Of China'S Ten Largest Economic Data In 2011

In January 17th, the National Bureau of statistics of the people's Republic of China "nationals"

First,

According to the gradual calculation, China's gross domestic product (GDP) was 471564 billion yuan in 2011, which was 9.2% higher than the previous year.

Here are the following points to note.

First, the GDP growth rate of 9.2% in 2011, compared with 10.4% in 2010, is not small. It is also the lowest growth rate since 2002 (unchanged from the 2009 growth rate during the financial crisis).

Second, from the quarterly GDP growth rate, the first quarter to fourth quarter were 2%, 2.4%, 2.3% and 2% respectively. Since the two quarter, they also showed a downward trend, and the decline in the four quarter was relatively large.

The link data can reflect the short-term economic trend better than the year-on-year data.

Third, from the per capita GDP perspective, China's per capita GDP in 2011 is about 35000 yuan. If it is calculated according to the average of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar at the end of 12 last year, it will be equivalent to about 5500 US dollars.

This is the first time China's per capita GDP has exceeded $5000 for the first time, but according to the forecast of IMF in 2011, this level ranks around 90 in the world.

Two, the growth rate of industrial added value has dropped and is lower than the historical average level.

As the GDP statistics are calculated based on the added value data, and the fixed assets investment and the total retail sales of social consumer goods are not consistent with the statistical caliber of GDP, so the increase of industrial value can reflect the economic operation.

In 2011, according to comparable prices, the growth rate of industrial added value was 13.9% over the same period last year, compared with 15.7% in 2010.

If we do not consider the 2008 and 2009 of the financial crisis, such as the GDP growth rate, it also created the lowest growth rate since 2002, significantly lower than the historical average of 16-17% since 2002.

From the monthly growth rate of major industrial products such as crude oil, power generation, pig iron, crude steel, cement and automobiles, there has been a downward trend in recent months, and some varieties (such as crude steel, pig iron and automobiles) have seen zero or negative growth.

It is generally believed that the data of industrial production are more reliable, so the decline of these indicators indicates that the decline of economic growth may exceed expectations.

Three, CPI high fall in the first half of 2012 or continuation

In 2011, CPI rose by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding the official target of 4%.

Here are the following points to note.

First, since July 2010, the growth rate of CPI has dropped from 6.5% to 4.1% in December. The growth rate of CPI has been lower than that of the 2003-2010 year history since July. This shows that even after putting aside the cardinal effect, CPI also showed a downward trend.

Second, the year-on-year increase in food prices reached 11.8% year-on-year in 2011, although it was lower than the previous inflation period in 2007 and 2008, but it has also been the third highest level in the past 10 years.

In addition, the increase in non food prices has dropped in the second half of the year, but is still at its highest level in the past ten years.

This means that in the first few months of this year, the warning of inflation has not been completely eliminated.

Third, if we predict the historical average of 2003-2011 years, we can see that in 2012, the growth rate of CPI in the whole year is about 3%, and the growth rate in the first half of this year may show a downward trend. However, it will still be over 3%, but there may be a rebound in the second half of this year.

Of course, as food prices fluctuate rather than food prices, which may be affected by international commodity prices, this may lead to some volatility in CPI, but overall, CPI is unlikely to rise sharply in 2012 because of the relatively low global economy.

Four, foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange accounted for a double decline in the fourth quarter

Since 2000, the growth rate of China's foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange balances has basically shown an inverted U trend, with the highest growth rate reaching 50% in the 2004-2007 years. The growth rate has gradually dropped since the financial crisis in 2008, and by December 2011, the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange balance has dropped to 11.7% and 12.3% respectively.

From the quarterly data, the fourth quarter of 2011 is very special: the balance of foreign exchange reserves has dropped for the first time since the two quarter of 1998 (down 20 billion 500 million US dollars), and declined for two consecutive months in November and December last year. The foreign exchange balance has dropped for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2000, and has decreased by 153 billion 100 million yuan in three consecutive months.

Over the past 10 odd years, despite the occasional drop in foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange balances, there has been no decline for two consecutive months or three months.

Among them, the balance of foreign exchange reserves has only declined for two consecutive months in December 2008 and January 2009, and the balance of foreign exchange has declined even in a single month, only in December 2007.

The quarterly decline of foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange reserves in the fourth quarter of 2011 is indeed a new phenomenon or a turning point.

This shows that under the background of narrowing of trade surplus, adjustment of domestic economic structure and expectation of RMB exchange rate appreciation, foreign exchange inflow will slow down or will be a long-term trend. This will bring new challenges to domestic monetary liquidity management and form a certain squeeze on the bubble of RMB assets.

Five, the money supply will go to the bottom and the bank loans will exert strength.

In the first six months of 2011, the Central Bank of China raised the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points a month, which led to a tight liquidity in the banking system, insufficient credit supply capacity, and a corresponding slowdown in the growth of the money supply, which was particularly evident in the second half of the year.

The broad money supply M2 grew by only 13.61% in December 2011, down sharply from 19.7% in December 2010, while the narrow money supply M1 declined a lot from the 21.2% in December 2010 to 7.85% in December 2011.

Historically, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 and M2 may have bottomed out, of which the growth rate of M1 is close to the level of the 2008 financial crisis, while the growth rate of M2 has been lower than that of the 2008 financial crisis.

In 2012, with the slowdown of foreign exchange inflow, bank credit would be expected to exceed the expected performance if M2 and M1 were to get rid of the bottom areas to stabilize economic growth.

The expected performance of new loans in November 2011 and December has already shown signs.

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Six, the trade surplus is further narrowed, and the contribution rate of net exports is negative again.

In 2011, China's trade surplus was US $155 billion 100 million, a decrease of US $26 billion 400 million over the previous year.

In 2008, China's trade surplus was close to US $300 billion. In the next three years, the trade surplus decreased year by year, with a larger drop in 2009 and 2011.

From the perspective of export growth, the growth rate of 20.3% in 2011 was significantly lower than that in 2010, and it was also lower than the level before the financial crisis. From the perspective of import growth, the growth rate of 24.9% in 2011 was higher than that before the financial crisis, but it also fell sharply compared with 38.7% in 2010. The growth rate of imports of general trade was much lower than that in 2010. This indicates that China's domestic economic stimulus plan since the financial crisis has gradually declined.

From the perspective of contribution to economic growth, the contribution rate of net exports of goods and services to GDP in 2011 was -5.8%, which was negative again after 2009.

This shows that in the context of the global economic downturn, the pulling force of foreign trade on China's economy is weakening. China's economy needs to maintain steady growth and stimulate domestic demand.

Seven, RMB appreciation expectations weaken, cross-border trade settlement is dragged down.

In 2011, the value of the RMB appreciated against the US dollar by about 4.85%, compared with the 3% appreciation in 2010.

However, since the three quarter of 2011, from the point of view of overseas RMB non deliverable forward contracts (NDF), the RMB has depreciated expectations, and the domestic RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is even higher than that of the Hongkong market.

Although the Central Bank of China has strongly maintained the stability of the central parity of the RMB exchange rate since the end of December last year, the NDF quotation has gradually moved closer to the domestic price, but at least the expectation of RMB appreciation has been greatly weakened.

The weakening of the RMB appreciation expectation will not only cause foreign capital inflow to slow down or even outflow of foreign capital, but also have a negative impact on cross-border trade RMB settlement.

Since the RMB settlement in cross-border trade since 2009 is mainly based on the expectation of RMB appreciation, with the weakening of the RMB appreciation expectation or even the expectation of depreciation, it will reduce the enthusiasm of foreign exporters for RMB settlement.

According to the data of the Central Bank of China, the cross-border trade settlement of RMB in the third quarter of 2011 dropped by about 13 billion 800 million yuan compared with the second quarter, while the fourth quarter decreased by 44 billion 300 million yuan compared with the three quarter.

This is in sharp contrast to the quarterly surge in cross-border trade settlement of RMB since the two quarter of 2010.

Eight, real estate investment and sales down, short-term downward pressure on housing prices increased.

Since 2010, China has implemented stringent real estate regulation mainly based on loans, purchase and price fixing, which seems to have achieved some results in 2011.

Although investment in real estate development continued to grow at a high level of 27.9% over the same period of last year, it has dropped somewhat compared with 33.2% in 2010. This shows that the investment enthusiasm of developers in 2011 has cooled down under the pressure of tightening policies, but it is still in the controllable range.

The situation in 2012 is not very clear at the moment. Since the second half of 2011, the land purchased by developers and the new construction area have dropped sharply, even zero growth and negative growth. It is estimated that the growth rate of real estate development investment will drop in 2012, but the rate of fall will also be determined by the speed and intensity of the construction of affordable housing.

Generally speaking, the real estate sales situation is the first indicator of housing prices. Since the second half of 2011, real estate sales and sales growth has begun to decline year-on-year, especially in the fourth quarter.

In 2011, the area of commercial housing sales grew by only 4.9%, the growth rate dropped by 8 percentage points over the first three quarters, down 5.7 percentage points from the previous year.

As sales continue to decline, the downward pressure on house prices will increase significantly in the first half of this year.

Nine, urbanization rate exceeded 50%, the ratio of urban and rural income continued to shrink.

In 2011, China's urbanization rate finally exceeded 50%, reaching 51.27%, but according to the world bank's data, China's urbanization level has just reached the global average of 51%, which is only higher than that in India.

Compared with the East Asian neighbours, the urbanization rate in Japan and South Korea in 2010 was 67% and 82% respectively.

It is worth mentioning that under the restriction of the current rural land system, the rapid urbanization may bring about the intensification of contradictions, which is also a major obstacle to the development of urbanization in China.

From the perspective of urban and rural income, the actual growth rate of rural per capita net income in 2011 (11.4%) once again surpassed the real growth rate of urban residents' disposable income (8.4%) in 2011, which is the second time since 2010.

In rural areas, wage income increased by 21.9%, an increase of 4 percentage points over last year. This also shows that China's labor costs are rising year by year.

From the point of view of the ratio of urban and rural income, 2011 was 3.13:1, compared with the 3.23:1 of 2010, but the level was only around 2002.

Ten, fiscal revenue or breakthrough 10 trillion tax reduction is imperative.

Up to now, China's Ministry of finance has not yet announced the public revenue and expenditure situation in December 2011. But in the first 11 months of 2011, the fiscal revenue has increased to 9 trillion and 730 billion, and the monthly average has increased by 884 billion 500 million. There has been no suspense about the breakthrough of 10 trillion in 2011.

It is worth noting that the cumulative growth of fiscal revenue in the first 11 months of 2011 was 26.8%, up from 21.1% in the first 11 months of 2010 and higher than the nominal GDP growth rate of 17.4% in 2011.

Under the background of structural tax reduction in recent years, the rapid growth of fiscal revenue is particularly abrupt.

From the perspective of fiscal expenditure, fiscal expenditure grew by 24.25% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2011, down from 27.3% in the first 11 months of 2010.

Although expenditure growth in education, medical care, housing security and culture, sports and media expanded in 2011, the growth in expenditure on social security and employment, science and technology, energy conservation and environmental protection dropped.

In any case, the acceleration of fiscal revenue growth and the fall in fiscal expenditure are not a good phenomenon.

On the whole, although the main economic indicators of China have dropped in 2011, the statement of the National Bureau of statistics that "the national economy is still developing steadily and rapidly" seems to indicate that the Chinese government has some tolerance and relatively optimistic attitude towards the economic growth rate under the active control of the pition period.

But if we can continue to implement the tax reduction policy to benefit the people, we can avoid the risk of economic hard landing caused by external uncertainties in 2008, and also make people more optimistic about economic pformation.