After The Festival, There Is An Alarming Market.

With the end of the market Closing quotation At that moment, the year of the rabbit finally came to an end. Looking back at the trend of the market in the year of the rabbit, there are both heartache and bitterness. Sweet 。 Speaking of sadness, since the middle of April last year, the market has been down and down, with a total decline of more than 30%. When it comes to sweetness, although the market has embarked on a long bear Road, it has constantly summed up experience and perfected its operation in this difficult process. Skill It's sweet to get rewards.

Looking forward to the trend of the market after the festival, we must start from the macro perspective. There are several big news worthy of our attention. The first is four new loans in the first ten days of 110 billion yuan.

Since January, bank credit has reappeared "blowout". Data show that, after the three working days after the new year's holiday, four major state-owned banks, including labor, agriculture, construction and construction, have reached 50 billion yuan in credit. Ten days before January, the four major banks increased their credit to 110 billion yuan. Insiders estimate that in January, the scale of new RMB loans reached 900 billion -10000 billion yuan. This news is a preference for the stock market. New loans increase. currency Policy has also begun to loosen, which is conducive to capital investment in the stock market, thereby boosting the index's rise. Second, the number of IPO is maintained or 300 this year. The total size is expected to be unchanged from last year. The financing scale of the whole year is expected to be between 270 billion yuan and 300 billion yuan, and will remain unchanged in 2011. It is estimated that the reform of IPO system will become the focus of the market in the future. The news is partial, the phenomenon of new shares has been a major factor restricting the rise of the stock market, crazy financing expansion, seriously suppress investor confidence. However, with the continuation of new shares, the issue of IPO reform will gradually be put on the agenda. Third, the CBRC will moderately relax the regulatory requirements for bank capital. According to the report, the CBRC will allow commercial banks to include the excess bad debt reserve into the risk capital buffer. At the same time, it will also reduce the risk assets weight of some loans, reduce the risk weight of individual business loans from 100% to 75%, and reduce the risk weights of small and micro enterprises loans from 75% to 50%. The news is a preference, and a modest relaxation of bank capital regulatory requirements is also a manifestation of loose monetary policy, which indirectly helps to boost the stock market.

Let's look at the technical side again. First, from the large cycle of the monthly line, the market has dropped to 120 month line, and the adjustment range of its cumulative measurement is basically in line with the magnitude of the symmetrical triangle downward since 3478. From the analysis of technical indicators, RSI forms a multi headed form of W type, and the month KDJ is also about to form the bottom golden fork. Then from the weekly line analysis, following the weekly KDJ confirmation that MACD is following closely behind the golden fork, and the index stands steadily on the 10 week line, which is also conducive to the form of multi headed attack. Finally, from the daily line K-line analysis, the market is in a strong uptrend situation. The 60 day line and the 3067 drop track position become the biggest drag on the stock index up. Once the market effectively breaks through this position, the intermediate market will be confirmed.