Textile And Clothing: Sales Growth Is Expected To Pick Up &Nbsp; "Overweight" Rating
Consumption is in a slight fluctuation: from
Medium-term trend
In terms of sex, we believe that the growth rate of textile and clothing consumption will slow down in the future.
trend
And the newspaper shows that the quality of the growth of textile and apparel retail enterprises has declined.
Next year, with the low price of raw materials such as cotton prices, the growth of textile and clothing sales is expected to pick up, so as to realize the pformation of volume and price. Considering that the negative impact of high price on consumers' consumption will gradually weaken, we expect consumption growth to slow down in 2012.
Recovery trend
。
Manufacturing textile enterprises are in deep industry integration: due to excessive expansion of capacity in recent years, when the capacity is put into operation this year, orders are insufficient and funds are tight. Many large and medium-sized enterprises are operating hard and the industry consolidation is speeding up.
In the medium to long term, industry integration is beneficial to excellent enterprises such as Weixing, because it can improve the unprecedented disorderly competition in the textile industry, but the short term and medium term may have a certain impact on the market.
Investment suggestion
Current valuation: under the premise of determining the performance growth, from the valuation level, on the one hand, with the overall callback of the plate, the valuation center has declined; on the other hand, the profit forecast of the rapid growth of the quality retailers' future performance does not have room for reduction.
From the point of view of the plate: at present, the plate is in a relatively dull period, and there is no obvious stimulating factor. With the gradual clarity of the three quarterly report, it is expected that the sensitivity of the market to the performance of the three quarterly report will be raised. We believe that as the early stage sector returns, the valuation center has declined, and the 3 quarterly reports or the stock price will be further supported for the stocks that have not yet been established.
Judging from the current adjustment situation, the relative value of the textile and garment retail sector is relatively high. Taking into account the decline in the valuation of other industries, we believe that the textile and garment retail sector has the risk of correcting relative valuation.
Despite the risk of continued adjustment, considering the high certainty of quality companies, the future sector still has a high level of risk.
Defensive
。
Pay close attention to the three quarterly report: the market enters the sensitive period of the three quarterly report. We suggest that we should pay attention to the retail enterprises with good quality and relatively fast growth rate. Because of the excessive pre production capacity, and the price of raw materials led by cotton plummeted, the efficiency of manufacturing enterprises will decline in the second half of this year, and the depth of industry integration will be in progress.
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