The Economic Downturn Is Limited. The Three Quarter Of Small Business Data Is Ice And Fire.

Ice and fire.

There seems to be some contradiction in China's small business data.

In October 13th, the data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that the small business climate index in the three quarter was 117.3, a slight increase compared with 116.8 in the two quarter.

However, the data of China Federation of logistics and purchasing show that in September, the purchasing managers index (PMI) of small manufacturing enterprises was only 45.3%, down 1.8 percentage points from last month.

Since May this year, the figure has been shrinking and declining after falling below the critical point.

Is the situation of small and medium-sized enterprises good or bad?

In response, an authoritative source of the national statistical department pointed out that the above data are not contradictory because the prosperity index of the National Bureau of statistics not only includes the manufacturing industry, but also the service industry. At present, some service industries have entered the period of the highest prosperity index, but the manufacturing industry is not very good.

The National Bureau of statistics will announce the first three quarters of October 18th.

Small business data on ice and fire

It is understood that this year, the performance of small businesses seems to be better than large and medium-sized enterprises.

According to the national statistical survey, the small business climate index was 117.3 in the third quarter, a slight increase over the second quarter.

Over the same period, the prosperity index of large and medium-sized enterprises was 151.3 and 132.4 respectively, down 3.6 and 3 points compared with the two quarter.

In the second quarter of 2011, the small business climate index was 116.8, an increase of 2.7 percentage points over the first quarter.

However, the data of China Association of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and the Federation of logistics and purchasing are different from those mentioned above. The small businesses reflected by these departments are getting worse and worse.

The SME Association warned that China's SME development index fell from 108.9 in the third quarter of 2010.

The two quarter of 2011 was 100.2, falling to nearly 100 of the critical value.

According to the data of China logistics and purchasing Federation, the purchasing managers index (PMI) of small manufacturing enterprises in September was only 45.3%, down 1.8 percentage points from last month, and was at a critical point for five consecutive months.

The secretaries of the China purchasing managers' index analysis group, in Ying told reporters that small businesses are indeed getting worse and worse. This is mainly reflected in too much inventory and insufficient orders.

Through contact with enterprises, enterprises generally indicate that many goods in the past have not been recovered, so funds are becoming more and more intense.

"So the survival pressure of small businesses is bigger and bigger."

However, why does the National Bureau of statistics reflect the development of small businesses that are not the same?

An authoritative source of the National Bureau of Statistics Service pointed out that the core issue is that the survey of business climate index involves tens of thousands of enterprises, including service industry and manufacturing industry.

At present, the development of the service sector is very good, which conceals the shortage of the development of the manufacturing industry, especially the shortage of small businesses.

"If we measure each industry by category, we may see which ones can be seen.

According to the statistics department's survey, the prosperity index of social service enterprises is the highest since 1999. The prosperity of the housing and catering enterprises is the best level in history. Among them, the business climate index of the residential enterprises is above 120 for 6 consecutive quarters, rising to 132.7 in the three quarter, and the 8 quarter of the catering business climate index is above 130, and the three quarter has increased to 143.7.

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Economic downturn is limited.

Despite the difficulties faced by small businesses, especially manufacturing enterprises, the overall economy is still developing well.

When the small business development index continued to decline, the National Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in September was 51.2%, a 0.3 percentage point increase in the chain.

The index continued to pick up in recent two months, indicating a further strengthening of economic development.

Among them, only the new export orders index, backlog order index and finished goods inventory index picked up slightly, more than 1 percentage points.

However, Yu Ying believes that PMI mainly reflects the future situation, and the actual statistical results are the past figures.

"For the whole year, the economic growth rate will still exceed 9%, but at present, the demand for steel, coal, petrochemical and other resource industries is weak, and some of the demand is declining. This problem needs attention."

Yu Ying said.

The State Council expects to hold a executive meeting in October 19th to discuss the economic situation in the first half of the year and deploy the fourth quarter economic work.

At present, although there are problems in the development of SMEs in Wenzhou and other places, the overall economic situation is still good in Zhejiang and in the whole country.

At a symposium at the end of September, a government official pointed out that the current economic slowdown is still above 8%.

"Monetary policy will not continue to be tight, but it must not be expected to relax because there is no need for relaxation.

At present, China's fiscal policy is relatively loose. In the future, China's fiscal sector will shift from relative easing to stability, but there will also be differentiation. "

Li Zibin, President of the association of small and medium enterprises of China, believes that at present, SMEs are facing difficulties in financing. Due to the tight international trade market, rising raw material and energy prices, rising labor costs and appreciation of the exchange rate, the state still needs to provide assistance to solve these problems.

For example, technological innovation and export of small and medium-sized enterprises at present